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Where do all your forex profits go to?

  • #21
  • May 23, 2009 11:40pm May 23, 2009 11:40pm
I personally believe 5-10% of the people that voted and wrote comments here are profitable its just the same ratio of overall winner and losers (95-5%)
  • #22
  • May 23, 2009 11:47pm May 23, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I feel like the forexfactory Grinch these days.
Anythings better than a pretender

It will go over sooner or later when you see you can't fight the hordes of clueless people. I like what a friend said about FF some weeks ago; it is (mostly) for entertaining.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #23
  • May 23, 2009 11:51pm May 23, 2009 11:51pm
Quoting Robot
I personally believe 5-10% of the people that voted and wrote comments here are profitable its just the same ratio of overall winner and losers (95-5%)
Personally I think that the Oft. quoted figure Is not even close to the real %. The real one being much much lower IMO, and even lower In the Forums.

I cant even say Im sure Its possible to be a consistently profitable trader working with the Info we have. I wont know untill I manage to do it.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #24
  • May 24, 2009 12:04am May 24, 2009 12:04am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I cant even say Im sure Its possible to be a consistently profitable trader working with the Info we have.
One of the things FF are good for, is to find people who do this for a living and have shared how they trade. Avoid all those eur/usd-gbp/jpy threads at all costs. Cannot believe anyone have learned anything useful for profitable trading there.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #25
  • May 24, 2009 12:11am May 24, 2009 12:11am
Quoting aediaz1
One of the things FF are good for, is to find people who do this for a living and have shared how they trade.
I dont beleive there has ever been a member on this site who has spelled out an exact and profitable trading method, possibly there was one who later regreted what he had done and sorted out the problem.

Sharing a trading method Is like giving someone your money.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #26
  • Edited 3:15am May 24, 2009 12:22am | Edited 3:15am
Just to add something to what I was saying.....

If we at this forum cannot turn a profit, that doesnt meen we are less Intelligent than the Guy at the bank or hedge-fund.

Like anything in this mans world, money and contacts are everything. Money can pay for research, contacts can provide you with Information about orders and the agenda's of participents. Banks front-run large orders, damn, tell me when a large order is coming In to the market and Ill turn a profit every time aswell.

Despite what people say, every man IS NOT equal infront of the market. There is a Hierarchy of market participents and were at the bottom, no doubt about it.

RAMBLING ADDITION:
Think about well touted market Law such as 'Trade with trend/the trend is your friend', although It makes alot of sence not to trade against the market, trading with the trend does one sure thing and that Is increase the move initiators profits or provide them with an exit oportunity. No wonder Its repeated so often.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #27
  • May 24, 2009 4:08am May 24, 2009 4:08am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
There is a Hierarchy of market participents and were at the bottom, no doubt about it.
Come on, don't be a 'glass half empty' kinda guy, look on the bright side

We have access to a market (albeit virtual) that at one time was the exclusive domain of banks, institutions, and the wealthy. We're at the bottom of the barrel simply because we are the bottom of the barrel, we're the poor relation, pikers in the eyes of the elite institutional traders and players!

But that doesn't automatically exclude us from making some money here, we're every bit as capable of reading a chart and recognizing a pattern as any of those overpaid anlaysts at XYZ bank, at the end of the day it's the same chart, same pattern, and same level we're both looking at. Accepted they may paint some of those candles the way they want us to see them but we ain't stupid, we have other tools to compensate.

Sure we don't have the advantage of information about things like order flow and volume but if we can still manage to turn a profit despite those disadvantages that says a lot more about our ability doesn't it?

One advantage we do have is liquidity, we'll never run out of it wheras those guys are pushing billions around. We can be in and out with a profit while it might take them days or even weeks to unwind a position.

See, it's not so bad after all
  • #28
  • May 24, 2009 4:11am May 24, 2009 4:11am
Donating 'em to a charity called fXXXMaRkeT...lol
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #29
  • May 24, 2009 4:23am May 24, 2009 4:23am
Quoting pipmutt
But that doesn't automatically exclude us from making some money here, we're every bit as capable of reading a chart and recognizing a pattern as any of those overpaid anlaysts at XYZ bank, at the end of the day it's the same chart, same pattern, and same level we're both looking at. Accepted they may paint some of those candles the way they want us to see them but we ain't stupid, we have other tools to compensate.

Sure we don't have the advantage of information about things like order flow and volume but if we can still manage to turn a profit...
You make a good point about the Liquidity, being smaller does have this advantage and we could likely exploit inefficiencies that bigger money would not be able to. But when It comes to 'chart patterns', my guess Is that nobody but the retail crowd gives a damn about them because they are random occurences with next to zero predictive value.

Just my opinion ofcourse, but I wont believe otherwise untill I can prove it to myself or someone else proves It to me.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #30
  • May 24, 2009 4:34am May 24, 2009 4:34am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
But when It comes to 'chart patterns', my guess Is that nobody but the retail crowd gives a damn about them because they are random occurences with next to zero predictive value.

Just my opinion ofcourse, but I wont believe otherwise untill I can prove it to myself or someone else proves It to me.
Probably a whole other debate and it could take a while!

For the sake of our sanity and the integrity of this thread how about we agree to disagree on that one

(.....besides I see you live about 15 miles away from me and you might be a big guy so I wouldn't want to upset you!)
  • #31
  • May 24, 2009 4:43am May 24, 2009 4:43am
Quoting pipmutt
Probably a whole other debate and it could take a while!

For the sake of our sanity and the integrity of this thread how about we agree to disagree on that one
Without a doubt, I could be eating my words this time next month but this is just the way I see things at the moment.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #32
  • May 24, 2009 4:52am May 24, 2009 4:52am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Without a doubt, I could be eating my words this time next month but this is just the way I see things at the moment.
I'll be happy to try and change your view if you drop me a pm, I'm a bit superstitious about publishing mine for general consumption!

(ps did you catch the edit )
  • #33
  • May 24, 2009 5:27am May 24, 2009 5:27am
Quoting pipmutt
I'll be happy to try and change your view if you drop me a pm, I'm a bit superstitious about publishing mine for general consumption!

(ps did you catch the edit )
Yep, read the edit and Ive sent you a PM mate. Im wondering what side of Manc your on.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #34
  • May 24, 2009 6:29am May 24, 2009 6:29am
For me, it all goes back into other investments.

The long term goal is to buy one of these and trade on that!

http://www.superyachttimes.com/artic...May-01-big.jpg

My mate works on there & has sent me some pictures, its crazy how much money it cost to build!!
  • #35
  • May 24, 2009 7:13am May 24, 2009 7:13am
Quoting welshguy2000
For me, it all goes back into other investments.

The long term goal is to buy one of these and trade on that!

http://www.superyachttimes.com/artic...May-01-big.jpg

My mate works on there & has sent me some pictures, its crazy how much money it cost to build!!
UK throw ya hands up if its a beautiful day!!!

Living the adventure in my head.
  • #36
  • May 24, 2009 9:01am May 24, 2009 9:01am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I dont beleive there has ever been a member on this site who has spelled out an exact and profitable trading method, possibly there was one who later regreted what he had done and sorted out the problem.

Sharing a trading method Is like giving someone your money.
You're partly wrong on both your statements here Leon. I know of 1 thread the author started as addition to a book he wrote where he shares everything needed to trade profitable (system-wise). Sadly, the worst part of any trading-system are you as a trader. Math-freaks would probably not agree on that statement but thats ok.

Let's say you have a system thats profitable and you have 50 people trading it. Firstly, no matter what, people will not take the same entries. Some will be scared, some will miss it, some wasn't awake etc. Second, lets be very optimistic and say that these 50 people trade 1 std lot (100k units) each. I don't know what you think, but I'm guessing that a total of 50 lots order would not change the market dramatically.

As for the trend-bit, a trend is only good when you manage to hit it (which is mostly luck). No system can foresee a big trend, it can only generate a signal for you to enter with (hopefully) higher probabilities than 50% (just to give an easy example), after that you can do nothing else than pray that you hit "the trend".
Measure twice, cut once
  • #37
  • May 24, 2009 9:28am May 24, 2009 9:28am
Spot on

Quoting aediaz1
You're partly wrong on both your statements here Leon. I know of 1 thread the author started as addition to a book he wrote where he shares everything needed to trade profitable (system-wise). Sadly, the worst part of any trading-system are you as a trader. Math-freaks would probably not agree on that statement but thats ok.

Let's say you have a system thats profitable and you have 50 people trading it. Firstly, no matter what, people will not take the same entries. Some will be scared, some will miss it, some wasn't awake etc. Second, lets be...
  • #38
  • May 24, 2009 9:29am May 24, 2009 9:29am
You forgot Savings as an option!

Most of my monthly gains/profits go towards my life's savings that consists of a Savings/Money Market/CD/IRA accounts & Schwab Retirement Investment Portfolio. Anything left over goes towards my apartment leasing savings account, monthly bills, and health/life insurance. Anything left afterwards is my Play/Sending money for the month.

I was brought up not to OWE anybody anything, so I don't do credit/credit cards of any kind. I own my Mercedes (saved for it and paid it off) and I pay the apartment lease 1 year in advance and keep a savings account (to which I add to often) to pay for next years lease and all current and future bills.

It would be nice to pay off all my utility bills for the year but they keep sending the credits (monies owed) back to me, when I over pay. And I keep sending them that credit back. Don't know why they won't keep any of my credits and just apply them for the next month.
  • #39
  • May 24, 2009 9:54am May 24, 2009 9:54am
Hi Aed, long time no speak

You're partly wrong on both your statements here Leon. I know of 1 thread the author started as addition to a book he wrote where he shares everything needed to trade profitable (system-wise). Sadly, the worst part of any trading-system are you as a trader. Math-freaks would probably not agree on that statement but thats ok.

One of my beleifs Is that a good method and trading plan should outline the procedure of making a Trade from begining to end, with this any trader should be able to pick up the manual and after a couple of weeks practice be able to follow it flawlesly.
Im not a math geek although I do tend to agree with them, there very logical people.

Let's say you have a system thats profitable and you have 50 people trading it. Firstly, no matter what, people will not take the same entries. Some will be scared, some will miss it, some wasn't awake etc. Second, lets be very optimistic and say that these 50 people trade 1 std lot (100k units) each. I don't know what you think, but I'm guessing that a total of 50 lots order would not change the market dramatically.

Now, the Impact of missing individual trades due to a different trading scedule depends on the nature of the method. In trading methods with low Win-rates, missing a homerun trade could likely ruin your quarter. Im looking at this from a Higher hit-rate 1;1RR perspective where missing individual trades makes much less of a difference.

50 traders trading well for a couple of years that started out with 1std lot could be trading quite alot more though....

As for the trend-bit, a trend is only good when you manage to hit it (which is mostly luck). No system can foresee a big trend, it can only generate a signal for you to enter with (hopefully) higher probabilities than 50% (just to give an easy example), after that you can do nothing else than pray that you hit "the trend".

This might be the problem Aed, people relying on luck too much. 'traders' making decisions based on nothing, no cause and effect and no real edge. Like I said to pipmutt before, I have no proof that trading solely based on charts Is profitable, for that matter I have no proof that trading acording to anything available to the retail trader is profitable ATM. I wont beleive either untill I can prove it without a question of a doubt to myself.

And nobody honestly(think about it) has the right to say 'THIS WORKS' untill the reward is lining their pockets.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #40
  • Edited 10:46am May 24, 2009 10:33am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Hi Aed, long time no speak
1.One of my beleifs Is that a good method and trading plan should outline the procedure of making a Trade from begining to end, with this any trader should be able to pick up the manual and after a couple of weeks practice be able to follow it flawlesly.
Im not a math geek although I do tend to agree with them, there very logical people.

[color=blue]2.Now, the Impact of missing individual trades due to a different trading scedule depends on the nature...
Yeah been a long time now, haven't seen you on facebook lately, whats up?

1. At a certain point, trading is nothing more than practice. Practice makes champs if we allow ourself to say you have the right system and knowledge to practice with. Humans have very different types of brain so its impossible to say how much practice (in terms of years) you need to handle this game as it should be handled.

2. The distribution of win/losses is random. When you open your trade, regardless of your system, you CANNOT know for sure if that trade is going to make a killing or not. Thats why confidence is the key to always make sure you take your signals. I could go deeper here but I don't think it should be necessary.

3. I think we both know that 50 people would never trade the same profitable system successfully, it was just to state an example. There are examples of this (like Richard Dennis turtle-group). Trading needs a set of skills to be successful, no skill alone can bring you to the top.

4. You need to accept that trading from a chart all alone can be profitable. If you don't believe its possible you're most likely wasting your time. Don't listen to math-geeks like tdion who claims that TA is unprofitable simply because he among many others can't grasp it. Of course its unprofitable when you dig to classic shit-books or the typical threads found everywhere here on FF.

I believe you have an healthy portion of sceptism but don't lock out every option to become profitable. If you want I can send you a name, a book (pdf) and locate you to a thread here on FF. I even bet 100$ you haven't heard neither his name, book or thread before :=) (I wouldn't say yes to this inquiry unless you have at least 6 months with a lot of time to study)

I forgot to say that I visited England few weeks ago and had the time of my life! You English folks are so polite and friendly I got almost scared. Not only that, everything was so freakin' cheap. 2£ for a drink, 100£ for those mini-computers ! Felt like I was in Spain before they got €.
Measure twice, cut once
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