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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,261
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:38am Apr 17, 2007 11:38am
Quoting khmr
thx...just waiting for gbp cross to have some correction...I actually hedge this pair (yes I know it doesn't make me a great trader) but for the most part I done really well until that china crash...I had a hedge pair long since 215 but that crash ate away alot of my profits...
BOE minutes tomorrow, showing the votes for hike/no-hike and Friday's Retail Sales will give the direction.

The Minutes showing majority for rate hike, we will have more on the upside GU.

Gotta watch how UJ will trade now.... Confirmed this bounce off 118.84, and we may have 119.50 back into play, as long as "The Gentlemen" stay out of the way.
  • #3,262
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:54am Apr 17, 2007 11:54am
I definitely need this. I'm long two positions on EJ & a position at 239.00 on GY. UJ is the only hold up with EU & GU doing well. I'm hoping support at 118.90 holds otherwise I'm in for some big losses.

Quoting cesarnc
UJ back above 119.50 is important.
  • #3,263
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:54am Apr 17, 2007 11:54am
Cesar,

Do you think we'll be getting a bounce up from here or more downtime?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,264
  • Apr 17, 2007 12:01pm Apr 17, 2007 12:01pm
Quoting Sami7
Cesar,

Do you think we'll be getting a bounce up from here or more downtime?
Can't tell. FED Geithner on the wires....

Back above 119.10 and */JPY bulls will be safe from today's matadors
  • #3,265
  • Apr 17, 2007 12:05pm Apr 17, 2007 12:05pm
[quote=cesarnc;275285]Can't tell. FED Geithner on the wires....

Back above 119.10 and */JPY bulls will be safe from today's matadors

How do you get your figures - 119.10 - just curious? And thanks - keep us posted.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,266
  • Apr 17, 2007 12:09pm Apr 17, 2007 12:09pm
[quote=Sami7;275290]
Quoting cesarnc
Can't tell. FED Geithner on the wires....

Back above 119.10 and */JPY bulls will be safe from today's matadors

How do you get your figures - 119.10 - just curious? And thanks - keep us posted.
There were 2 spikes after the quick selloff that didn't make above of 119.10. I watch this as the level of interest. I don't do NASA techis here, you know
  • #3,267
  • Apr 17, 2007 12:43pm Apr 17, 2007 12:43pm
[quote=cesarnc;275293]
Quoting Sami7

There were 2 spikes after the quick selloff that didn't make above of 119.10. I watch this as the level of interest. I don't do NASA techis here, you know
Close enough I wish the UJ would do..... something.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,268
  • Apr 17, 2007 2:35pm Apr 17, 2007 2:35pm
It's doing something allright. USD is very weak today. I'm praying the Yen shows some weakness during the Tokyo session.
  • #3,269
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:45pm Apr 17, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting black06
It's doing something allright. USD is very weak today. I'm praying the Yen shows some weakness during the Tokyo session.
We gotta watch for (already usual) USD dumping that is taking place by 01:00 GMT since last Tuesday.

All USD pairs are set for that right now... I'm still holding lousy UJ long positions and I may use this USD selloff to get rid of this, via GU or other pair...

After that, carry trades are likely to take over, backed on strong NYSE session today.

GU not retracing today open room for 2.0100 before BOE minutes and GOD knows where afterwards.
  • #3,270
  • Apr 17, 2007 9:36pm Apr 17, 2007 9:36pm
22:24There a rumors making their way through the market that the BOJ will hike interest rates in May. We see that JGB yields are up off of these rumors.

Any ideas if GY is gonna go lower than 238 or stop there and move up again? Looks like the moves are veeery slow, but steady in all pairs. GU up, UY lower and lower....
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,271
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:46pm Apr 17, 2007 11:46pm
Did you hold onto that UJ long? I'm nervously still in my trades, the Yen has been steady or appreciating a little all evening. My longs on the yen crosses are eating up most of April's profits,...wondering if it's time to let them go.

Quoting cesarnc
We gotta watch for (already usual) USD dumping that is taking place by 01:00 GMT since last Tuesday.

All USD pairs are set for that right now... I'm still holding lousy UJ long positions and I may use this USD selloff to get rid of this, via GU or other pair...

After that, carry trades are likely to take over, backed on strong NYSE session today.

GU not retracing today open room for 2.0100 before BOE minutes and GOD knows where afterwards.
  • #3,272
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:18am Apr 18, 2007 2:18am

well, until now the daily is a f** doji, the price is going nowhere. Cable steady, and GY is scattered allover the place by the dollar. I suppose a break of either 238. 84 or 237.99 would show the direction. I wonder what the BOE minutes can bring to improve this situation.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,273
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:49am Apr 18, 2007 3:49am

The inability to break 238.90 scares me. Plus the decision to leave rates on hold. Should we see some downside these days? At least I vote for a range in the next hours.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,274
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:55am Apr 18, 2007 3:55am
If you want to make money never ever buck the trend as long as you hold on to your buying pos you are earning everyday plus the trend is your friend 240-42 will do for the coming session due to stronger than expected earnings and mpc voted 7-2, rate hike is almost in the bag next meeting......
  • #3,275
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:27am Apr 18, 2007 4:27am
Quoting 4x_Trader
If you want to make money never ever buck the trend as long as you hold on to your buying pos you are earning everyday plus the trend is your friend 240-42 will do for the coming session due to stronger than expected earnings and mpc voted 7-2, rate hike is almost in the bag next meeting......
Yen is struggling below 119. That's bad and got me offguard, BTW.

Carry trades are favored but USD weakness is overshadowing since 119.82. With no further important news today, I'm looking for Yen back to fight 119. Not sure about a breach.

Damn Cable is hard to read now. No retracement yesterday, made new highs after new highs at a choppy market and now it is above 2.01 and enjoying. There seems to be no barrier for Cable. So I don't know if a correction could start today (23 & 38¨fibs from low9902-high 2.0131) or if it will go on placing new highs...
  • #3,276
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:19am Apr 18, 2007 6:19am
Let's see if this last test of 118.50 confirms intraday double bottom...

Damn UJ is at critical level. Below 118.50 it will look for April 13th bottom 118.20.
  • #3,277
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:36am Apr 18, 2007 6:36am
Gap on 5 min chart 237.77 - 237.83 think we may be heading to fill.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,278
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:44am Apr 18, 2007 6:44am
it goes down like a rock, thnx god I closed all my long positions yesterday , is it just a spike or reversal?
  • #3,279
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:03am Apr 18, 2007 7:03am
I believe we are heading down further. Retracement. However, unstable market at present. Not getting into a trade. Waiting. Adding - if we are going to get a bounce up it would be at 50% fibo or 61.8% fibo on the most recent movement up around 236.53 on 1H Chart.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,280
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:30am Apr 18, 2007 7:30am
On cable weakness.... Damn it I missed that info previously

This was immediately attributed to the repatriation of Yen in respect of upcoming and very large European bond redemptions though Apr 19-May 1st. The other sellers have been largely model led with carry unwinds gaining favour as momentum led Usd shorts become preferable.
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