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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,241
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:09am Apr 17, 2007 4:09am
sob cable co dropped me again and I didn't have a TP set. GRRR
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
  • #3,242
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:31am Apr 17, 2007 4:31am

<<Extreme volatility in GBPUSD ... we're hearing from several sources that a market participant errantly placed a sell order at 1.9922, obviously by accident. Unfortunately, the market went with it and large trades went through down below.>>

LOL, must have been Soros.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,243
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:42am Apr 17, 2007 4:42am
Seem to have very strong resistance to going through 238.50's.
  • #3,244
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:51am Apr 17, 2007 4:51am
Quoting yezbick
Seem to have very strong resistance to going through 238.50's.
I think it all depends on cable. If it goes over 2000 today, we are up. It seems that until now its holding well close to it. I am really curios what is the market sentiment about this - sell here or buy above 2000?
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,245
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:53am Apr 17, 2007 4:53am
Quoting gagiul
I think it all depends on cable. If it goes over 2000 today, we are up. It seems that until now its holding well close to it. I am really curios what is the market sentiment about this - sell here or buy above 2000?

Market sentiment for the cable is 60% bullish 20% nuetral 20% negative.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts...spx?id=GBP/USD
  • #3,246
  • Apr 17, 2007 6:44am Apr 17, 2007 6:44am
Quoting yezbick
Market sentiment for the cable is 60% bullish 20% nuetral 20% negative.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts...spx?id=GBP/USD



thanx a lot yezbick, and good luck with ur thread and trades. I am a big fan of yours. Well, it seems the sentiment is indeed bullish, cable is holding position strongly. GY made another daily range of 200 pips, so I chickened out. But i guess there is still some room above 239.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,247
  • Edited 11:27am Apr 17, 2007 7:03am | Edited 11:27am
Don't know if the following is true or not, but gives an additional confirmation on north bound direction for the GJ at least for the short term.

yezbick



TRADING ALERT: Mouteki Signal Trigger
FREE ALERT PROVIDED BY {linked removed - rule #3}

Summary

Trendline point 1: high at 2007.04.16 16:00 (238.56)

Trendline point 2: high at 2007.02.08 08:00 (238.83)

First candle above line: 239.10 - 2007.04.17 12:00

Projected profit: 256.78

Details:

1. Upper trendline was drawn by the indicator between the high of the bar at 2007.04.16 16:00( price level of 238.56) and the high of the bar at 2007.02.08 08:00( price level of 238.83)
2. The indicator has detected a qualified breach of that trendline by a candle (bar) opening at a price of 239.10, above the trendline at 2007.04.17 12:00, after a cross of the trendline by a previous candle (bar).
3. In accordance with the Mouteki rules (http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=8464), that is a signal for a possible long entry.


Target projections:

1. Distance from trendline to the lowest point was calculated based on the low of the bar on 2007.03.05 20:00 at a price level of 221.05.
2. That distance was found to be 17.68.
3. This gives us a projected takeprofit level at 256.78 (that being a distance of 17.68 from the opening of the qualifying candle at 239.10).




Please note that this indicator is in its Beta stage and is being continually improved.

Please view our terms and conditions regarding these alerts at
{linked removed - rule #3}


Alert reference: Alert # DM3.1.3.G-GBPJPY-2402007.04.17 12:00
  • #3,248
  • Apr 17, 2007 7:06am Apr 17, 2007 7:06am
UJ back above 119.50 is important. An attempt to 120, opens GJ 240 area

The downside comes after Fukui speech (don't know what he said) + USD bearish sentiment.

Possible USD (mixed-to) positive news are likely to inspire 119.50 and beyond.

They might help us to understand:

- where is GU's support now, that it's hanging out pretty comfortably at 0020
- how market will react below 0000 in case it happens. We still don't see any, any sign of noticeable profit taking since last bottom 9211
  • #3,249
  • Apr 17, 2007 7:52am Apr 17, 2007 7:52am
The weekly R2 is located at 240.42. We just crossed R1 at 238.79.

Appears to be fighting the daily R1.5 at 239.41. If this is crossed, a further surge north is possible.

Are we still in the wave extension 5 for the Elliot Wave theory?
  • #3,250
  • Apr 17, 2007 7:57am Apr 17, 2007 7:57am
Quoting yezbick
The weekly R2 is located at 240.42. We just crossed R1 at 238.79.

Appears to be fighting the daily R1.5 at 239.41. If this is crossed, a further surge north is possible.

Are we still in the wave extension 5 for the Elliot Wave theory?
Thanks yezbick....

I'm still targeting 240 and UJ 120 for the week. I'd consider this UJ scenario denied below 118.40 in the s/t.

If cable holds 2.0 and Yen not below 119 today, I'll extend GJ's target to 241
GOtta check Cable at 2.0000 for possible support now.
  • #3,251
  • Apr 17, 2007 9:38am Apr 17, 2007 9:38am
Dow Jones had an IMPRESSIVE rebound from post-news bottom and trades above 12,750. To note that ±12,800 was price before Chinese Stocks meltdown.

Carry trades favoured, but UJ upside will have to fight this strong non-stop USD bearish sentiment.
  • #3,252
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:02am Apr 17, 2007 10:02am
Hi can you help or tell me where the support or resistance lines are now for G/J and G/U
Im long both and got some profit in (like many others I hope so just questioning)and Im still thinking that there is more room to go --> hoping .
so Im just dont know where to put (tighten)my stops in that moment, I know that nobody knows but perhaps there are some infos

thanks a lot
  • #3,253
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:06am Apr 17, 2007 10:06am
ok this thing with a virus is getting really annoying.... it doesn't cause any harm it just annoying .....

but anyways when do u think we should have a retracement ? its not that I don't like going north ... is about when to close all position and my short order since 233.93 that looks very nasty now ....
P.S. 4:30am GBPClaimant Count Change http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
-5.0K-3.8K
what do u think about that ?how will it affect the situation ?
  • #3,254
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:21am Apr 17, 2007 10:21am
Quoting Pedolino
Hi can you help or tell me where the support or resistance lines are now for G/J and G/U
Im long both and got some profit in (like many others I hope so just questioning)and Im still thinking that there is more room to go --> hoping .
so Im just dont know where to put (tighten)my stops in that moment, I know that nobody knows but perhaps there are some infos

thanks a lot
I'm running fib retracement 9902 - 0074 (so far) as guideline for a possible short-term correction.

Your question makes all sense. The problem is that the move was so overextended that it's hard to figure where the next strong support is noe, ahead of Thu's Retail Sales.

If you profited all (or good part of) the way up and are holding good profit already, there's no reason to stay in the market, imo. The "trade of the day" is GONE and you took it fine.

I'm out of Cable pairs until Tokyo session minimum, possibly London open tomorrow, so price will have the time to bounce off its resistances and supports and we will have a safer place to trade for the rest of the week.
  • #3,255
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:39am Apr 17, 2007 10:39am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm running fib retracement 9902 - 0074 (so far) as guideline for a possible short-term correction.

Your question makes all sense. The problem is that the move was so overextended that it's hard to figure where the next strong support is noe, ahead of Thu's Retail Sales.

If you profited all (or good part of) the way up and are holding good profit already, there's no reason to stay in the market, imo. The "trade of the day" is GONE and you took it fine.

I'm out of Cable pairs until Tokyo session minimum, possibly London open tomorrow, so price will have the time to bounce off its resistances and supports and we will have a safer place to trade for the rest of the week.
Cesarnc...thx for the great analysis...I was just wondering if it does g/j does have a correction where do you see it going down to before reversing again...are you in agreement with most and say its at 233? thx
  • #3,256
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:06am Apr 17, 2007 11:06am
12:04 That last push lower in $/JPY was the rumor that Deputy Treasury Secretary (Kimmitt) was to speak and mention JPY in particular in his address...His released text has no mention of JPY at all....hence the spike higher a couple of minutes ago
  • #3,257
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:16am Apr 17, 2007 11:16am
Quoting khmr
Cesarnc...thx for the great analysis...I was just wondering if it does g/j does have a correction where do you see it going down to before reversing again...are you in agreement with most and say its at 233? thx
Yen is really bothering me for days... It's been highly influenced by worldwide financial guys. Every time they pop up in some wire, Uj goes down 30 pips... Note that UJ going up 30 pips is taking an eternity here...

After breach of 119.50 I thought the downside was contained, but look at it now, after this am's Fukui speech and now...

I'm really considering to get out of yen pairs until Yen stops being the focus of the same bastards that use to say "currencies must reflect fundamentals".

As they (the bastards) think Yen pairs are not, then pop up and manage to sink it.

All in all, this is the world we live in...
  • #3,258
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:20am Apr 17, 2007 11:20am
Quoting cesarnc
Yen is really bothering me for days... It's been highly influenced by worldwide financial guys. Every time they pop up in some wire, Uj goes down 30 pips... Note that UJ going up 30 pips is taking an eternity here...

After breach of 119.50 I thought the downside was contained, but look at it now, after this am's Fukui speech and now...

I'm really considering to get out of yen pairs until Yen stops being the focus of the same bastards that use to say "currencies must reflect fundamentals".

As they (the bastards) think Yen is not, then pop up and manage to sink it.

All in all, this is the world we live in...
was spike down last night to low of 237.19 due to that same error that I read earlier where a big time player had their trade accidently executed for a short instead of a long or was that a retracement?
  • #3,259
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:24am Apr 17, 2007 11:24am
Quoting khmr
was spike down last night to low of 237.19 due to that same error that I read earlier where a big time player had their trade accidently executed for a short instead of a long or was that a retracement?
No hehehe... As I heard it was BOJ Fukui's speech on parliament on Tokyo morning. Got hawkish, as I read about it, but I don't know what he said.
  • #3,260
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:33am Apr 17, 2007 11:33am
Quoting cesarnc
No hehehe... As I heard it was BOJ Fukui's speech on parliament on Tokyo morning. Got hawkish, as I read about it, but I don't know what he said.
thx...just waiting for gbp cross to have some correction...I actually hedge this pair (yes I know it doesn't make me a great trader) but for the most part I done really well until that china crash...I had a hedge pair long since 215 but that crash ate away alot of my profits...
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