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4H Box Breakout

  • #221
  • May 19, 2009 2:50pm May 19, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting Ace284
Forex = uncertainty

Thats the bottom line. The reason why there are good traders is because they understand the concept of money management. I'm under the impression that you have lost some money on the forex which is perfectly normal, happens to the best of us. This system is 90% mechanical. If you are a beginer than you should leave it like this.

So the question is, how do you know when to use what strategy, or if the strategy is just performing well for the time being. It is difficult to know this and i'll be honest I don't know what...
Great advice! I still consider myself a newbie but I already have learned that a lot of what you say is so true.
  • #222
  • May 20, 2009 8:06am May 20, 2009 8:06am
Quoting Ace284
To break even with the 2x TP, you would need to lose 2 times and win once. 3x TP, lose 3 times and win once to break even. The odds are definitely on our side and thats the best thing to have when you are trading. The Holy Grail of Forex is your High School math class because thats where you learn probability.
Great post. But there're no 2x or even 3x TP vs. 1x SL. Look. We open with 3 lots (or 1 lot, which then gonna be splitted into 3). So there's 1 lot x SL value (box range, let's take 100 pp) x pip value (let's take $10) = -$1.000 on one side when price goes against you.

And there's next. The first lot's TP is filled on box range (1x), the second is filled on 2x range, the third on 3x. Let's split 1 lot into 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.3. So we have 0.4 x 100 x 10 = $400, 0.3 x 200 x 10 = $600, 0.3 x 300 x 10 = $900. The sum is +$1.900, but this is the best scenario!

There're a few cases when the price would fly like a rocket after box was drawn. In most cases we've got tricky situations, when the first lot closes with TP, but then the price goes down and fills 2nd and 3rd lots with BE. And in this case we have only 0.4 x 100 x 10 = $400 vs. $1000 as risk:reward ratio.

That's the problem, don't you think so, guys?
  • #223
  • May 20, 2009 6:47pm May 20, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting Dael
Great post. But there're no 2x or even 3x TP vs. 1x SL. Look. We open with 3 lots (or 1 lot, which then gonna be splitted into 3). So there's 1 lot x SL value (box range, let's take 100 pp) x pip value (let's take $10) = -$1.000 on one side when price goes against you.

And there's next. The first lot's TP is filled on box range (1x), the second is filled on 2x range, the third on 3x. Let's split 1 lot into 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.3. So we have 0.4 x 100 x 10 = $400, 0.3 x 200 x 10 = $600, 0.3 x 300 x 10 = $900. The sum is +$1.900, but this is the [b]best...
I think your saying that you would cash in 1/3 of the profits after 1x move in our favor, then the next 1/3 in the 2x and the last 1/3 at TP3.

In your example the best case scenario would actually be $3000 if you use 1 lot. You don't take profits after each TP level. If you've set your goal as a 2x then u cash in when your ENTIRE position hits the 2x TP. You don't break it into pieces.

With the system there should be no way that your risk becomes higher than your reward.

Just let me know if that was in fact what you were talking about
  • #224
  • May 20, 2009 11:31pm May 20, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting Ace284
In your example the best case scenario would actually be $3000 if you use 1 lot. You don't take profits after each TP level. If you've set your goal as a 2x then u cash in when your ENTIRE position hits the 2x TP. You don't break it into pieces.
OK, thanks for clarifying things. So what are your best practices? Do you close whole position on 2x TP? Or close 1/2 of it and turn the last half into trailing?
  • #225
  • May 20, 2009 11:53pm May 20, 2009 11:53pm
Quoting EZTrades
Hi Paulus ,


I was just replying to your post #214 . What you said in that post takes years for traders to learn . The fact that you understand that about Risk/Reward means that you've been trading awhile , or you cut the learning by years by learning this sooner than most . Once you understand that trading IS all about probabilities , it makes it easier to pull the trigger on the trade because the probabilities ARE you our favor . You WILL have losing trades , but because your winners are twice as large as the losers , you will continue to make...
for one thing risk/reward should be the first thing that you want to look at when you first start trading in my first three months of trading that is what i read about. ace284 i really like this system and it has made me money all ready so i thank you for that.
  • #226
  • May 21, 2009 3:42am May 21, 2009 3:42am
Is anyone trading this system on a daily basis...using the 1st 4 hours of each day for daily trades?
  • #227
  • May 21, 2009 4:16am May 21, 2009 4:16am
Quoting Bobcat2
Is anyone trading this system on a daily basis...using the 1st 4 hours of each day for daily trades?
Hi Bob, interesting idea, have you been trying out this method? Let us know.

Cheers
Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #228
  • May 21, 2009 8:17am May 21, 2009 8:17am
So would the day start at GMT 0?

Quoting Bobcat2
Is anyone trading this system on a daily basis...using the 1st 4 hours of each day for daily trades?
Yea it's Life//
  • #229
  • May 21, 2009 10:28am May 21, 2009 10:28am
It seems to me that there's a wrong understanding about the open time. Isn't it that we take the first 4 h bar of the week, starting @ 5.00 PM ET on Sunday, that is 00.00 on my chart (FXDD)??? Am I wrong???
  • #230
  • May 21, 2009 10:48am May 21, 2009 10:48am
Quoting alain1
It seems to me that there's a wrong understanding about the open time. Isn't it that we take the first 4 h bar of the week, starting @ 5.00 PM ET on Sunday, that is 00.00 on my chart (FXDD)??? Am I wrong???

He stated in the thread that is should be 00:00gmt which is 8pm est right now.
  • #231
  • May 22, 2009 4:31pm May 22, 2009 4:31pm
Results for the week:

GBP/JPY - short was a loss
- long was a winner ( went 4x the size of box)

We're in the green for the week.
  • #232
  • May 22, 2009 5:58pm May 22, 2009 5:58pm
Ace,

What broker are you using. I was just reviewing my chart for the week and there was no short, only long. My broker is IBFX and there was 6x the size of the box if you held on the entire week.

Thanks
Mitch
  • #233
  • May 22, 2009 7:51pm May 22, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Is anyone trading this system on a daily basis...using the 1st 4 hours of each day for daily trades?
Bobcat, using this on daily is quite profitable. It's called "set and forget box trading." I've been using it for awhile now. There are, however, couple of modifications to this method. Look at this thread to learn more about adapting this method to daily: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=81821
  • #234
  • May 23, 2009 1:50pm May 23, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting mitchp
Ace,

What broker are you using. I was just reviewing my chart for the week and there was no short, only long. My broker is IBFX and there was 6x the size of the box if you held on the entire week.

Thanks
Mitch
What was your high and low
  • #235
  • May 23, 2009 8:48pm May 23, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting mitchp
Ace,

What broker are you using. I was just reviewing my chart for the week and there was no short, only long. My broker is IBFX and there was 6x the size of the box if you held on the entire week.

Thanks
Mitch
My IBFX never triggered a short either. I'm going to go back and check my hi's and lows so we can compare notes. I think there were 3 people who stated their IBFX never opened a short trade.

Marto
  • #236
  • May 23, 2009 9:18pm May 23, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Use this one.

I corrected a small snippet of code which now includes everything between both lines inclusive.

hi Ronald

I added the indicator to my indicators file however it does not seem to attach to the chart... it didnt work on the 2 platforms I tried.. would u know why that might be?

thanks
  • #237
  • May 23, 2009 9:23pm May 23, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting dfxclub
hi Ronald

I added the indicator to my indicators file however it does not seem to attach to the chart... it didnt work on the 2 platforms I tried.. would u know why that might be?

thanks
That is because it is an EA.
  • #238
  • May 24, 2009 7:19am May 24, 2009 7:19am
Ace,

For GBPJPY last week the first 4hr bar was 143.03 (low) and 143.97 (high). the seconc bar opened at 143,61 and never went below that. The week ended closing out at 150.80.

Mitch
  • #239
  • May 24, 2009 8:02am May 24, 2009 8:02am
this strategy shall takes about 52 x 2 trade per year at minimum or 104 trade at max.

the MM is just nice for application.
I believe somebody who use this strategy consistently shall become a next fx millionaire within 5 years time (with this strategy alone). Hopefully the market will always volatile and move at least 300-500 pip one way week in and week out.

the opportunity is always great on monday. happy trading to all
  • #240
  • May 24, 2009 8:03am May 24, 2009 8:03am
good pair to trade this strategy - imho, GY & EY because i trade this pair
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