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  • #361
  • May 15, 2009 11:48am May 15, 2009 11:48am
Im adding EURJPY Alot of Euro traders will look to the Asian hi Lo areas,its makes sense and will monitor it

EURJPY

M -71 pips 100% taken at 200% fib
T -50 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % fib
W -67 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib
T -78 pips 100% taken at market close
F -86 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib



Will add other results for other 2 swaps for this week

P
  • #362
  • May 15, 2009 12:18pm May 15, 2009 12:18pm
Hi Paulus,
Something seriously wrong for me here.
My EurJPY today was 40 Pips from Asian Low of 130.44.
I wonder if I have the time zone correct?
Regards
Steve

Quoting Paulus
Im adding EURJPY Alot of Euro traders will look to the Asian hi Lo areas,its makes sense and will monitor it

EURJPY

M -71 pips 100% taken at 200% fib
T -50 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % fib
W -67 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib
T -78 pips 100% taken at market close
F -86 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib



Will add other results for other 2 swaps for this week

P
  • #363
  • May 15, 2009 12:30pm May 15, 2009 12:30pm
<<So my 'Tokyo session' is marked as 00:00-06:00BST (or 23:00-05:00GMT if my marketwatch time was in GMT).>>

Exactly . you mark the end of the tokyo session at 5 GMT.
Very helpfully
Thanks
  • #364
  • Edited 12:46pm May 15, 2009 12:33pm | Edited 12:46pm
Hi Steve its timings again

here is my chart of EURJPY for today // and the chart will help with settings

Cheers

P
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: LBO.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #365
  • May 15, 2009 12:35pm May 15, 2009 12:35pm
Penny has just dropped. 1.618 was only 50% rest left to trade.
Sorry
Steve

Quoting stevecartwright
Hi Paulus,
Something seriously wrong for me here.
My EurJPY today was 40 Pips from Asian Low of 130.44.
I wonder if I have the time zone correct?
Regards
Steve
  • #366
  • May 15, 2009 12:40pm May 15, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Paulus
Ok

2 wins one trade on eaxh both short

GBPUSD
GBPJPY

Both hit thier 161.8 fib level..this may be confusing to some but all it is is the high and low of the Asian session which in fib terms goes from...
Hy !

This was a good day for trade.
I think GBP/JPY is more reliable till now.
About EUR/JPY I will try to do some back testing and see if he is stable in time.

And Paulus, I am sorry if I looked pretty disapointed yesterday, but trust me, I really want that this thread to go on, couse for me this is a verry useful system. And I hope that eaven if we are trading once a day, we will be here for a long time, so that this system will make us to grow together.

Thx again Paulus and guys, have some faith in this system !
  • #367
  • May 15, 2009 12:49pm May 15, 2009 12:49pm
het FX no prob I see it this way a day trader may have

W W L L W L W w W l W W W L W

We have the same strike rate but ours is counted in days so we look for totals at the weeks end

If I was trading weekly charts I look for the months end or 3month end totals

No worries

P
  • #368
  • May 15, 2009 12:53pm May 15, 2009 12:53pm
Thanks. It looks like I am completely off the mark with the timings as I thought London open was 06:00 BST not 08:00 BST. I am running FXDD but will probably be changing to ODL shortly. I won't need to get up so early next week :-)

I don't know what this has done to all my manual back testing which was looking very good.

Steve

Quoting Paulus
Hi Steve its timings again

here is my chart of EURJPY for today // and the chart will help with settings

Cheers

P
  • #369
  • Edited 1:27pm May 15, 2009 1:25pm | Edited 1:27pm
hey paulus and everyone,

loving the looks of this system. here's a quick back test to the beginning of this april for EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY AND EURJPY. going to go back a few more months during this weekend for GBPJPY to see if it can keep up the high win rate.

don't hold me accountable for accuracy of the test. i did my best on it, but this is only my third week studying forex. also, i assumed exiting all of the position at the 161.8 fib. if you hold half until 200, there are several instances in which more pips could be made. spread was not included or accounted for in any of the testing.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Paulus.xls   18 KB | 499 downloads
  • #370
  • May 15, 2009 2:33pm May 15, 2009 2:33pm
datu

All looks very promising locking in profits but allowing a larger gain is tough..not nice to see a 50 pip profit end up as a 90 pip loss....

Im using the fib levels as its mechanical and I like mechanical...dont like emotional Im very black and white that way but there may be a better mechanical method of taking the profits...

Thanks for the work it will help a great deal.

I will be looking more into this over the week end time permitting

Thanks again

paulus
  • #371
  • May 15, 2009 4:24pm May 15, 2009 4:24pm
There's been some debate about spreads earlier on in this thread.
Can i get a consensus of opinion regarding how you treat broker spread please?
If we take the entry level as TokyoHigh+10 and S/L as TokyoLow-10 (on a long position) do you factor in your spreads on top of this, and opposite on short trades?
It's not so much the S/L that is issue, but more the false trigger on entry if the broker spread is high that bugs me.
Any comments/thoughts please?

Cheers
Steve
  • #372
  • May 15, 2009 10:17pm May 15, 2009 10:17pm
manual back test through january now. eur/usd got destroyed in jan and eur/jpy not holding up too well either. looks like gbp/jpy and gbp/usd could be the only way to go.

eyes and brain tired while going through all of this, so don't rely on it for 100% accuracy. spread not accounted for. will take it back a full year by the end of the weekend.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Clean Monthly.xls   17 KB | 402 downloads
  • #373
  • May 15, 2009 10:23pm May 15, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting LeafTrader
There's been some debate about spreads earlier on in this thread.
Can i get a consensus of opinion regarding how you treat broker spread please?
If we take the entry level as TokyoHigh+10 and S/L as TokyoLow-10 (on a long position) do you factor in your spreads on top of this, and opposite on short trades?
It's not so much the S/L that is issue, but more the false trigger on entry if the broker spread is high that bugs me.
Any comments/thoughts please?

Cheers
Steve
Steve,
See my opinion in post #339. Add spreads, but on the buy stop only, as MT4 by default marks bar hi-lo using the bid price.

LeoM
  • #374
  • May 15, 2009 10:27pm May 15, 2009 10:27pm
datugman

This is really impressive, thanks for putting all that together. I remember reading somewhere that JPY crosses are better for breakouts, your findings seem to confirm this.

Quoting datugman
manual back test through january now. eur/usd got destroyed in jan and eur/jpy not holding up too well either. looks like gbp/jpy and gbp/usd could be the only way to go.

eyes and brain tired while going through all of this, so don't rely on it for 100% accuracy. spread not accounted for. will take it back a full year by the end of the weekend.
  • #375
  • May 16, 2009 2:43am May 16, 2009 2:43am
Hi

I factor my spread on top of the 10 pips

hope that helps

P
  • #376
  • May 16, 2009 3:04am May 16, 2009 3:04am
Update for last week

EURJPY

M -+71 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
T -+50 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
W -+67 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib 50% at break even
T -+78 pips taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
F -+86 pips 50% taken at 161.8% fib 50% at break even

+305 pips


GBPUSD


M – +42 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
T – +55 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
W – +55 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
T - -96 pips stop hit
F - +28 pips 50% taken at the 161.8% fib 50% at break even

+145 pips

GBPJPY


M- +86 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
T - +122 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
W- + 144 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at 200% fib
T - - 160 pips stop hit
F - + 90 pips 50% taken at 161.8 % 50 % taken at break even

+413 pips

Paulus
  • #377
  • May 16, 2009 4:26am May 16, 2009 4:26am
can anyone make a test by setting:
first like paulus says enter at +10 pips sl at the other side out half at 161,8 and other half at 200% with stop at breackeven
scond: full take profit at 161,8%
3: same as first but SL, if we go short at +10 pips on 618 fibo if long at -10pips from 618 fibo
4: same as 3+2

am i clear?
  • #378
  • May 16, 2009 4:27am May 16, 2009 4:27am
Quoting Paulus
Hi

I factor my spread on top of the 10 pips

hope that helps

P

For bouth, TP and SL ?


Thx !
  • #379
  • May 16, 2009 5:03am May 16, 2009 5:03am
Hi all...

Reading here of the first time...

I am assuming the method has changed a little from the first post....I base this asumption on the chart in post # 364 of Fridays setup....where the Fib is set at 0 for the high and 100% for the low....where in the first post the low was set to the 50% level....

If there are other changes is it possible to add a section to the first post about "Method changes..."
  • #380
  • May 16, 2009 5:04am May 16, 2009 5:04am
a simple script which will draw the high and low onto a chart. Its a "SCRIPT" so goes in the experts/script folder, its not an indicator or expert. You may have to change the hour setting manually, not difficult and I could change/add teh 10pip line if anyone is interested. Just a starter
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SMC DayTrading.mq4   2 KB | 364 downloads
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