Well hopefully you were listening to me when i was screaming buy on that weakness on the EUR b/c bulls have control again. I'm seeing a continuation of this rally no more news out in US to stop this two day rally.
Well hopefully you were listening to me when i was screaming buy on that weakness on the EUR b/c bulls have control again. I'm seeing a continuation of this rally no more news out in US to stop this two day rally.
Ignored
By two day rally I'm including Friday in that rally
Well from yesterday action it appears smart money is supporting this rally, so I'm betting we get a close up today, I'm still in deep in my trades most of my trades still in the money, I'm still buying on dips and still bullish on the EUR. Thier's no US news to keep this uptrend from failing. Also on my short term account Im holding GBP/JPY in the money for 200 pips off that professional supported bullish move!
I trade the footprints of smart money, negative pips show strength especially is the spread is low, which means no professionals support that down move. Its quite simple their is no way a spread can stay low with professional strength behind it. It's like a huge wave due to the fact the pair is being marked up and also weak holders are buying in further pushing the price up and short sellers covering their positions causing a full fledged bull run. All the while smart money is unloading into this bull rally better known as distribution.
The stock market is not difficult to follow if you can read charts correctly, as a top professional would. You’ll understand exactly how to recognize the definitive moments of market action, and the sorts of preemptive
signs to look out for, just before a market rises or falls. You’ll know how a bull market is created, and also the cause of a bear market. Most of all you will begin to understand how to make money from your new-found knowledge.Without doubt, it is possible to predict the movements of the
financial markets.As you gain more experience, you will see that the markets do in fact move to the dictates of supply
and demand (and little else). Imbalances of supply and demand can be detected and read in your charts, giving you a significant advantage over your peers.
The first secret to learn in trading successfully (as opposed to investing), is to forget about the intrinsic value of a stock or currency, or any other instrument. What you need to be concerned with is its perceived value -
its value to professional traders, not the value it represents as an interest in a company or currency. The intrinsic value is only a component of perceived value.
It is important to understand that the market-makers do not control the market. They are responding to market conditions and taking advantage of opportunities presented to them. Where there is a window of opportunity provided by market conditions – panic selling or thin trading – they may see the potential to increase profits through price manipulation, but they can only do so if the market allows them to.This includes using news to their advantage. You must not therefore assume that market-makers control the markets.
Looking at my volumes for that euro/usd up move, its apparent SM is behind it. (High spread & high volume on the up-moves and low spread & low volume on the downmoves) so i could see us moving higher.
Quick question: I see price reversing trend after a high volume-wide spread move. In many cases, the price reverse is not confirmed with stopping volume. So, in the heat of the moment, on a lower tf (such as 5min) how do you know that this is a bottom???
Well I normally use math murray lines indicator and also, what your looking out for is decreasing volume on the down moves and a green candle that closes higher on extremely high volume and extreme high spread.That signifies smart money has now stepped in to begin marking up prices and distributing.
Well from the daily chart, there is still no support on this down move, we may get another slight pullback again, during US session on CPI results. Don't get shaken out we already know were going to have one more pullback and smart money is going to accumulate one more time off the CPI Results, So witness again weak holders get shaken out in fear. I have 3 more buy limits on the overshoot. You have to get in a professional mindset, where your looking for bargains and the news is your opportunity once again to load up.You've already witnessed how the EUR rallies. I'm going to stay locked in my position.
Well it seems the best days to trade is on news day, b/c from my experiences and obviously from the charts, market manipulation or imbalance occurs on news day. I consider waiting until after news breaks especially since into the run up into the news from US, strength is present in the background. The news provides the catalyst for smart money to get bargains b/c weak holders or the herd sell into the news, providing temporary weakness in the EUR.However professional trades know this is a false picture. Look what occurred right after the 8:30 news. Exactly market immediately rallied. This trading becomes easier to understand once you under the mechanics of how smart money trades.
Weakness was apparent in the background, as you know up bars represent weakness and an upthrust is the beginning manifestation of the weakness on the chart.
Up-thrusts can be recognized as a wide spread up during the day (or during any time frame), accompanied by high volume, to then close on the low. Up-thrusts are usually seen after a rise in the market, where the
market has now become overbought and there is weakness in the background. Up-thrusts are frequently seen after a period of selling, just before a down-move. Note the day must close on or very near the lows;
the volume can be either low (no demand) or high (supply overcoming the demand).
Market-makers are quite capable of generating an up-thrust, which is a moneymaking maneuver. The dynamics of an up-thrust are interesting and quite brutal – the rapid up-move brings in buyers and catches
stops. The traders who are already selling (shorting) the market, become alarmed and cover their positions. It is a common strategy to suddenly mark-up prices to catch the unwary. This action is seen after signs of
weakness and frequently indicates the start of a falling market. Once the market is known to have become weak, market-makers or specialists can mark the prices up quickly, perhaps on good news, to trap you.
The higher price is maintained for as long as possible. The price then falls back, closing on the lows. As the early price is marked up, premature short traders are liable to panic and cover with buy orders.
However, those traders looking for breakouts will buy, but their stop-loss orders are usually triggered as the price plummets back down. All those traders who are not in the market may feel they are missing out and
will feel pressured to start buying. This action is also designed to entice large pension funds, fund managers, banks and so on into the market. You do not have to be a small trader to be forced into a poor
trading position!
Overall, these up-thrusts are very profitable for the market-makers or specialists. An upthrust is usually seen after a period of weakness and usually indicates lower prices.
I've included an example of an upthrust on a 5m chart for gbp/jpy as you notice after that high volume green bar the volume now drops and notice on that red candle I marked you have an upthrust the can't follow through with the upmove. The spread also is significantly lower then the previous green bar. This is a trap up move smart money use, to trick a trader into thinking higher prices are eminent b/c you have a high spread on the previous green bar.
Here's another example on usd/jpy 5m chart, we have apparent weakness in the background, as you know upmoves mean weakness to smart money. So upon watching this chart you have a volume run up and then after the high surging volume after the red bar, your volume begins to die off on the upmove. Until you hit that upthrust bar and it doesn't follow through with higher prices. So thats your sign to go short on the pair.
Here's a 5m chart usd/chf I've plotted on here aggressive entry point and conservative entry point. On the chart your noticing decreasing volume on the down moves along with decreasing. Which to smart money this means strength in the background, hence the spreads are small thier not supporting the down move. I'm buying on that ultra low spread, but to the more conservative trader you can buy on that first volume candle that is higher then the highest volume candle in that down move.
You want to get in early and often on down bars your buying, b/c the forex is like the market and at the market your constantly looking for sales. Your not jumping in blindly buying b/c your smart customers are showing you based on the volume and spread how much or how little they support the sale or when they no longer support the overpriced merchandise.Only weak holders are paying up when the smart money begins the distribution and markup.
