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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #177,341
  • May 14, 2009 7:53pm May 14, 2009 7:53pm
thanks...
that cleared out my vision for tonight's trade.

will ride it down if i feel this spike up is going to form a double top pattern on m15/m30


Quoting Piters
first we bounce from here, retest DPP [145.20] and then we'll see what's next..

If we break DPP, then we countinue our bear trip, if we bounce:

4h shows a retest of 147.50 possible today.. but we have to play our market
  • #177,342
  • May 14, 2009 7:54pm May 14, 2009 7:54pm
Day chart shows 75% retrace from previous day. Short should be a good one for me. (100 pip average fall from highest point prior to fall to the bounce). Last high point was 146.41. We are approaching again. Look at the several last falls (cycles over the last several weeks). This historically will be followed by a partial retrace. GBP/JPY. Should happen in next hour unless 146.41 broken. It appears to be running the bottom edge of the up channel. Failure is near. That 75 % retrace from prior falls in a flag to me.
  • #177,343
  • May 14, 2009 8:02pm May 14, 2009 8:02pm
The last 4H candle has closed above the gann. This is very bullish as the the 4H gann has always held during the entire bear run from 150 area down to 143.50. Now that price has closed above it, I expect the bull run to continue up to 148 area to a key trendline. After that price could make a run for 151.50 and higher but expect some very choppy conditions. A retrace to the daily pivot would be a golden opportunity for long if price decides to do so. Otherwise I think getting at a low a price as possible for another ride up.
  • #177,344
  • May 14, 2009 8:21pm May 14, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
The last 4H candle has closed above the gann. This is very bullish as the the 4H gann has always held during the entire bear run from 150 area down to 143.50. Now that price has closed above it, I expect the bull run to continue up to 148 area to a key trendline. After that price could make a run for 151.50 and higher but expect some very choppy conditions. A retrace to the daily pivot would be a golden opportunity for long if price decides to do so. Otherwise I think getting at a low a price as possible for another ride up.
yes but the gan is not confirmed and can recross. there is a promising sign for bears if you look at my chart. the green line is my 3/8 murrey math line and this last 4h candle tried but could not close above it. look at all the white arows i drew and note how powerful the 3/8 line is previously. its been a good suport and resistance. note the reactions aswell.

EDIT: gan has confirmed but still beleive can recross
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  • #177,345
  • Edited 8:33pm May 14, 2009 8:22pm | Edited 8:33pm
Trade Levels for Today:

Range is between +100 and -100 only

Long only if 146.33 is taken out, and till +61.8 max

Short as long as it stays below 0.0
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  • #177,346
  • Edited 8:49pm May 14, 2009 8:39pm | Edited 8:49pm
The daily TL at 143.50 held up during the NY time as well Asian session today

High for Asian session atm is 146.30..Reversal is possible but the bias is bullish since it is above the DPP and MPP

Two playout

A. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and reverse back up

B. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and break thru to the Weekly TL at 141.50 zone for strong possible reversal

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=177299


IMHO

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  • #177,347
  • May 14, 2009 8:46pm May 14, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting rgitt05
The daily TL at 143.50 held up during the NY time as well Asian session today

High for Asian session atm is 146.30..Reversal is possible but the bias is bullish since it is above the DPP and MPP

Two playout

A. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and reverse back up

B. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and break thru to the Weekly TL at 141.50 zone for strong possible reversal


IMHO


Agree with the bounce of trend line - looks as if we may test it again but doubt a move lower than 143.50

I am waiting for a drift towards lower and if US futures are good a long is on the cards...
  • #177,348
  • May 14, 2009 8:55pm May 14, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting rgitt05
The daily TL at 143.50 held up during the NY time as well Asian session today

High for Asian session atm is 146.30..Reversal is possible but the bias is bullish since it is above the DPP and MPP

Two playout

A. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and reverse back up

B. GJ retest the Daily TL 143.50 zone and break thru to the Weekly TL at 141.50 zone for strong possible reversal

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=177299


IMHO

Hi!
Sorry to disturb you... I really like your setup! How do you manage to get those TL lines? Draw them manually?
Thanks.
  • #177,349
  • May 14, 2009 8:56pm May 14, 2009 8:56pm
wave count... wave 4 not over yet... IMO. strong bounce after wave 5.. expected around 140.80...
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #177,350
  • May 14, 2009 8:58pm May 14, 2009 8:58pm
I am not a wave trader but you sure have a nice layout with the fibs..



Quoting Raza
wave count... wave 4 not over yet... IMO.
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  • #177,351
  • May 14, 2009 8:59pm May 14, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting Raza
wave count... wave 4 not over yet... IMO. strong bounce after wave 5.. expected around 140.80...
Wait.... is that how you do wave counting? Am I missing something here?
  • #177,352
  • May 14, 2009 9:01pm May 14, 2009 9:01pm
If you know how the metatrader tools work, than select the line and draw on the chart...I look at the higher TF to identify the major TL,S/R and I draw them on the lower TF to help locate where the PA may reverse or break thru..




Quoting Andreenzo
Hi!
Sorry to disturb you... I really like your setup! How do you manage to get those TL lines? Draw them manually?
Thanks.
[
  • #177,353
  • May 14, 2009 9:03pm May 14, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting rgitt05
If you know how the metatrader tools work, than select the line and draw on the chart...I look at the higher TF to identify the major TL,S/R and I draw them on the lower TF to help locate where the PA may reverse or break thru..

ok, ok. Thanks
  • #177,354
  • May 14, 2009 9:03pm May 14, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting rgitt05
I am not a wave trader but you sure have a nice layout with the fibs..


Thanks.

I am not a Wave trader.. Either,,, but ever since i keep wave count..in mind...my trading along with other things we use.... has improved.. such that i have track record of no NEGATIVE trades.... for months...dont mean to brag about it.. but it helps figuring out the direction in any TF.. I basicly look for wave 3..4...5.. constant money maker..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #177,355
  • May 14, 2009 9:09pm May 14, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting ndhoanggia
Wait.... is that how you do wave counting? Am I missing something here?
Wave counts are never accurate...does not tell you the exact price( there are other ways of figuring that out) .. but market sure moves in 5 waves...wave3 longest and wave 5 less.. or equal..or longer than wave 3.. I look for wave 3 and 5....the other money maker is corrective wave( zig zag) abc...always a winner..

wave count i used to find boring...but it really helps finding direction... dont get too much into it.. just learn how to see 5 waves.. google..ELLIOT WAVE..

Thanks
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #177,356
  • May 14, 2009 9:12pm May 14, 2009 9:12pm
I usually look at the higher TF and work my way down to 1hr TF to get a clear view what direction the GJ is heading..I take trades mainly in the overall trend for the day..

Whatever works for you that is your system..

Holy grail yourself...




Quoting Raza
Thanks.

I am not a Wave trader.. Either,,, but ever since i keep wave count..in mind...my trading along with other things we use.... has improved.. such that i have track record of no NEGATIVE trades.... for months...dont mean to brag about it.. but it helps figuring out the direction in any TF.. I basicly look for wave 3..4...5.. constant money maker..
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  • #177,357
  • May 14, 2009 9:16pm May 14, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting rgitt05
I usually look at the higher TF and work my way down to 1hr TF to get a clear view what direction the GJ is heading..I take trades mainly in the overall trend for the day..

Whatever works for you that is your system..

Holy grail yourself...

everyone on this thread is an expert with a vouch
  • #177,358
  • May 14, 2009 9:19pm May 14, 2009 9:19pm
Bouncing between Daily 38.2%-50% fib..
Nice 280 pips who take long yesterday NY

mmm still holding my 145 and just add 145.90 by looking back at 50% daily fib @ 145...

its look like if she able to break H4 50% @ 147.10 north continue with at least 148.10..

Yellow circle where am carefully look at that..atm

But my H4 stoc look she wanna to touch @ Daily 50%= 145 and if she break it at this area, perhaps 143.50 back to 61.8% daily ....

Just watch my M5 atm...and just good for medium range profit ~ 135 pips between this area...i think
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  • #177,359
  • May 14, 2009 9:20pm May 14, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting forexlion
everyone on this thread is an expert with a vouch
Thanks but why ? What does a vouch do ?
  • #177,360
  • May 14, 2009 9:23pm May 14, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting Raza
i have track record of no NEGATIVE trades.... for months...
I would assume you trade without a stop or have an extremely large stop of several hundred pips, thats the only way you cant have a losing trade for months (simply because any bad trade has no stop so never gets closed). even malcolm had 5 losers in 55 trades and that was just 1 week.
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