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4H Box Breakout

  • #121
  • May 14, 2009 11:56am May 14, 2009 11:56am
Hi Ace,

Good job with this thread. Thanks for sharing your strategy. BTW, over the past 4 years, straddle trading has been the ONLY continuously profitable method of trading for me.

Do you still use that 1st 4 hour weekly candle if it turns out to be very small, say like a tight doji? In other words is there a minimum candle size? My concern is that with a very small range opening candle it is very likely both the buy and sell pending orders will be filled, and with very little "breathing room", both SL's will also be hit.

Best regards,
Bob
  • #122
  • May 14, 2009 12:24pm May 14, 2009 12:24pm
Good question. That may be something that we may need to look into. In a situation like that with a very small range or something close to a doji, maybe waiting until a larger 4hr candle is confirmed may be best suited. The problem with this is, once you change one thing, then other changes get discussed leading to total destruction in the method and thread. Also, the same can be said on the opposite end. A very tight range can also explode into major profits also. So just because the range is tight does not mean it has a better chance of ending in a loss, not in my opinion at least. I think that can go both ways. Although I think your question is good and shows you are thinking in a positive manner, it may be best to just leave this exactly as it and just accept that in situations like that we may has losses or we may see an explosion...only time will tell. Ace did say he is averaging 274 pips per week with this method exactly how it is on his live account since December.



Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Ace,

Good job with this thread. Thanks for sharing your strategy. BTW, over the past 4 years, straddle trading has been the ONLY continuously profitable method of trading for me.

Do you still use that 1st 4 hour weekly candle if it turns out to be very small, say like a tight doji? In other words is there a minimum candle size? My concern is that with a very small range opening candle it is very likely both the buy and sell pending orders will be filled, and with very little "breathing room", both SL's will also be hit.

Best regards,
Bob...
  • #123
  • May 14, 2009 12:26pm May 14, 2009 12:26pm
On the last 11 trades the smallest range was 65 pips and it was a winner. 50 pip range sounds nice to me as a minimum requirement.

Quoting Siuol
Good question....
  • #124
  • May 14, 2009 12:32pm May 14, 2009 12:32pm
See even with a small range of 65 pips, which is small for g/y, the trade still was a winner. I can respect a range of 50 pips as the minium. I honestly don't think we will see anything less than that with this pair in a 4hr candle.

I do want to say thanks to Ace also for sharing this method. It's nice to have others contributing to the thread also. Nice when everyone helps each other and stays focused...unlike so many other threads on this forum.

Quoting artov
On the last 11 trades the smallest range was 65 pips and it was a winner. 50 pip range sounds nice to me as a minimum requirement.
  • #125
  • May 14, 2009 3:31pm May 14, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting artov
On the last 11 trades the smallest range was 65 pips and it was a winner. 50 pip range sounds nice to me as a minimum requirement.
Good recommendation. Thanks.

If we have a candle under 50 pips in size, would you avoid the trade altogether, or would you extend the boundaries equally on both the top and bottom of the box to equal 50 pips and then trade it?

Hopefully this won't even become an issue, but it would be good to have a method to deal with it if the circumstance presents itself.
  • #126
  • May 14, 2009 4:00pm May 14, 2009 4:00pm
Hi Siuol ,

I would tend to agree with you . "If it's not broken , dont fix it " . The system seems to be very profitable for Ace over the last several months.
As long as it continues to work , I dont think I would look at changing the system rules until them . From what I have experienced , the tighter the range , the more explosive the break-out .


EZTrades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #127
  • May 14, 2009 4:05pm May 14, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Good recommendation. Thanks.

If we have a candle under 50 pips in size, would you avoid the trade altogether, or would you extend the boundaries equally on both the top and bottom of the box to equal 50 pips and then trade it?

Hopefully this won't even become an issue, but it would be good to have a method to deal with it if the circumstance presents itself.
I've never actually come across this problem. The size of the candle has always been larger than 50 pips since i've started trading this.

I think that 50 pips minimum range is reasonable just in case.
  • #128
  • May 14, 2009 4:09pm May 14, 2009 4:09pm
Hi Ace ,


I just wanted to thank you for sharing your break-out strategy . From everyones response , I would say you are really on to a good strategy here .



EZTRades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #129
  • May 14, 2009 4:11pm May 14, 2009 4:11pm
Yes, I agree. I can understand others wanting to think ahead but too many times I've seen something so simple become so complicated because so many things changed. This system uses no indicators at all. I'm with you that more times than not I've seen a tight range explode. When I see tight trading ranges, I focus on them because once price breaks that range, the ride begins.

Quoting EZTrades
Hi Siuol ,

I would tend to agree with you . "If it's not broken , dont fix it " . The system seems to be very profitable for Ace over the last several months.
As long as it continues to work , I dont think I would look at changing the system rules until them . From what I have experienced , the tighter the range , the more explosive the break-out .


EZTrades
  • #130
  • May 14, 2009 4:15pm May 14, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting EZTrades
Hi Ace ,


I just wanted to thank you for sharing your break-out strategy . From everyones response , I would say you are really on to a good strategy here .



EZTRades
Your Welcome my friend.
It's great to see the interest and feedback, exactly what i wanted.
  • #131
  • May 14, 2009 4:19pm May 14, 2009 4:19pm
Ace,

By chance since you have been trading this method since December up until now on your live account, do you happen to have a win/loss ratio that you can share with us or any other statistics?
  • #132
  • May 14, 2009 4:38pm May 14, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting Siuol
Ace,

By chance since you have been trading this method since December up until now on your live account, do you happen to have a win/loss ratio that you can share with us or any other statistics?
I'll be back in about an hour an a half, and ill post the results then.
  • #133
  • May 14, 2009 4:47pm May 14, 2009 4:47pm
Thanks. I'm sure there are others who would like to see your results also.

Quoting Ace284
I'll be back in about an hour an a half, and ill post the results then.
  • #134
  • May 14, 2009 7:41pm May 14, 2009 7:41pm
I've made an excel document which approximately shows the profits that I took in pips. Remember its not exact as I threw it together a while ago. Nonetheless, its still close to the actual numbers.

The first few columns are calculations based on your TP being at 2x the box size. The second few columns are the profits I took.

The average profit in weeks for 2x box size is 140.8.
 My average in PIPS was 188.25.

You'll notice that some of the profits that I took are not 2x the size of the box. It requires some practice and I suggest that you stay away from that until you have experience with the system.
I don't feel proud of saying this but at times i risked 5-7% of my account in a trade which is not good for money management. When i was asked for the average pips earned, I divided my total profits by the 20 weeks I traded even though i used more money for some trades which is why there is a significant difference. But again i strongly suggest that you do not risk more than 2% of your account until you have PRACTICED for a long period of time. And even then take extreme caution.

Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 4H Box Breakout.xls   28 KB | 3,105 downloads
  • #135
  • May 14, 2009 7:43pm May 14, 2009 7:43pm
Hi Ace ,

Just checking back in . Were you able to post your results of the system ?


Thanks ,

EZTrades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #136
  • May 14, 2009 7:45pm May 14, 2009 7:45pm
Hi Ace ,


Sorry I must have sent message at same time you posted results .




EZTrades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #137
  • May 14, 2009 7:52pm May 14, 2009 7:52pm
Hi Again Ace ,


Your numbers look very impressive . So on the trades with profits of 3X , 4X , 5X , did you wait for 1x or 2X to be reached and then just watched as price kept heading towards the next level profit target ? Did you trail a stop ? Rachet up stop to lock in some of the profits ?


EXTrades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #138
  • May 14, 2009 7:58pm May 14, 2009 7:58pm
Thanks for creating and sharing this with us. That is remarkable. You are doing a great job. Keep it up. You are getting a very solid amount of pips each month.

Quoting Ace284
I've made an excel document which approximately shows the profits that I took in pips. Remember its not exact as I threw it together a while ago. Nonetheless, its still close to the actual numbers.

The first few columns are calculations based on your TP being at 2x the box size. The second few columns are the profits I took.

The average profit in weeks for 2x box size is 140.8.
[font=&quot][size=3]My average...
  • #139
  • May 14, 2009 8:04pm May 14, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting EZTrades
Hi Again Ace ,


Your numbers look very impressive . So on the trades with profits of 3X , 4X , 5X , did you wait for 1x or 2X to be reached and then just watched as price kept heading towards the next level profit target ? Did you trail a stop ? Rachet up stop to lock in some of the profits ?


EXTrades
Once price has broken I use basic fibonacci study on a daily chart. But even to do that requires practice. I usually dont trail i just move the stops from level 2x to 2.5x to 3x and so on. It gets tricky and when i have a slight doubt i pull out. If you notice i took 4x the profit on one of the trades by it actually went 12x. I use my discretion after the 2x level.

** be careful though it gets very tricky and in NO CIRCUMSTANCE SHOULD ANYONE TAKE PROFIT BELOW THE 1X LINE. Even below 2X is not good.
  • #140
  • May 14, 2009 8:11pm May 14, 2009 8:11pm
Ace ,


Thanks again for taking your time to answer our questions. I think you have done a great job explaining how the system works ,entries , stops , targets , etc . I feel like I'm ready to start trading it on a demo account for at least a couple months and then go live .

Again thanks for sharing your system and for your time . I know for one , the older we get , the more valuable our time becomes to us .

Best in Life ,

EZTrades
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
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