4H Box Breakout | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Box Breakout indicator 197 replies

Breakout EA based on New York Box 3 replies

4H Weekly Box Breakout [TD] 4 replies

EURUSD Box Breakout 6 replies

Breakout Box 5 replies

Attachments: 4H Box Breakout
Exit Attachments

4H Box Breakout

  • #101
  • May 13, 2009 6:49pm May 13, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting Angler
Hi all...

Curious Ace284, why are you not including the spread on a short....you still have to pay the spread on the exit..?


I was running thru a few weeks going back...seem's a reasonable idea to target only the Block range when it is above 140pips wide and target the 2 times....on smaller ranges.....but as you said...on a strong push though either, make a judgement call for the exit...
Hmm im not quite sure why i don't include the spread on a short. Weird but that just hadn't crossed my mind . I'll start doing that now and thanks for for catching that.
  • #102
  • May 13, 2009 6:53pm May 13, 2009 6:53pm
This week's break has moved 5 times the size of the box!
  • #103
  • May 13, 2009 7:03pm May 13, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting redhouse
Aren't you doubling your buffer and spread in the above example?

2 X 78 = 174 + 10 + 7 = 191

"For the Long the TP is 2*(box+buffer+spread) = 2*(87+10+7) = 208 pip *spread = 7 for me"
Why do I do that? When i first noticed this pattern I didn't think too much of the precise calculations, and generally speaking it doesn't have a huge impact on the system due to its long term nature. During my trading I haven't had any problems with that.

But you know by all means modify it slightly if you wish for your own liking.
  • #104
  • May 13, 2009 7:15pm May 13, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting paradoxical
Danny, me either. But, if it works, I guess we don't need to know why. Possibly, as others join in or look into this thread, some logical reasons may surface. One I can think of would be the herd mentality where people joiun the crowd for no reason other than they don't want to miss the train. Perhaps the movement of the market in the first four hours sets the tone for that week and people jump on either the northbound or southbound train because they believe it will keep going that way for awhile?
I tend to agree with paradoxical... I guess is the "herd" factor... btw, ,many times the initial jump reverses completely in the mid-week (news? exhausting?) and come back with full throttle... but this is not a "get the long therm trend" system, its a jump-in/jump-out (since it has well defined TPs...)

Just my 2 pips...

Cheers!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #105
  • May 13, 2009 7:25pm May 13, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting HouseTrader
I tend to agree with paradoxical... I guess is the "herd" factor... btw, ,many times the initial jump reverses completely in the mid-week (news? exhausting?) and come back with full throttle... but this is not a "get the long therm trend" system, its a jump-in/jump-out (since it has well defined TPs...)

Just my 2 pips...

Cheers!

HT
this thing got fireworks right now,playing jump/in/.out..you will get your fingers burnt bro..
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #106
  • May 13, 2009 8:16pm May 13, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting Siuol
Danny, I wanted to say that if my response came across as rude about why this works and if it will continue, that was not my intent at all. I don't know why it works either but if I can make money from it, I will. That's all I was trying to say. After reading my response, I thought to myself, man...that can come across pretty rude. So if it does, I'm sorry for that. I just want to see as many people make money in forex as possible and if something is working, let's all take advantage of it.
Hey man, it's ok Of course i am here to make money too. Let's pip together hahaha.

I've lost my job for five months without being able to find a new job. Have to pay rent, pay daily living, blah blah blah. So a high successful fx system might be a rescue...
  • #107
  • May 13, 2009 11:16pm May 13, 2009 11:16pm
This is a super simple and high success stratergy but you have shared it on the bigest forex Forum on the web i think it will have an impact on the success of this system.
  • #108
  • May 13, 2009 11:19pm May 13, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting nasir.khan
This is a super simple and high success stratergy but you have shared it on the bigest forex Forum on the web i think it will have an impact on the success of this system.

I dont understand nasir how that is possible?
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #109
  • May 13, 2009 11:47pm May 13, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting bluesteele
I dont understand nasir how that is possible?
Look the impact could be postive or negative cant say that now what will happen.

I can't say how many traders were using this system before maybe nobody was trading this method?

positive:
Now he has shared the system when price will brake H/L of first 4h candle more people will be selling/buying there and price will go down/up dramatically and method will perform more successfully every week.

negative:
And after some weeks or months this method will be so famous that less and less people every week will tarde against it so price at those level's wont perform like it is performs now.


I am not predicting any thing but that's what i think.
  • #110
  • May 13, 2009 11:48pm May 13, 2009 11:48pm
Quoting bluesteele
I dont understand nasir how that is possible?

The theory is simple enough:

If a lot of people use the same strategy at the same time, then theoretically the market as a whole would move based on this system. Because everybody is trading it. What Nasir fails to realize is that forex is a multi trillion dollar industry and the total money of ForexFactory viewers cannot possibly make a dent in that monetary figure. Had this been the stock market, then Nasir's claim might hold true--if you were trading with penny stocks, or other low volume stocks.

As for my actual contribution, I have written an EA which trades the breakout of the initial week's range. In a bobsled race, most people can determine how long it takes a team to complete the course based on how much time it took a bobsled team to go down the starting track. The same thing applies here. The first--in this case--four hours of a trading day is indicative of how the week will end.

With this EA, the standard features apply. The only things unique about this EA are the settings "BarsFromWeekStart", and "DayStart". BarsFromWeekStartis the number of bars from the start of the week that the EA will use to calculate its range. DayStart is the Day (0 = Sunday, 1 = Monday, ... 5 = Friday) which you will use to start the week. Other than that, everything else is the same as on my other EAs.

I'm particularly interested in what HouseTrader mentioned...

Quoting HouseTrader
Just as a quick note... did some visual backtest with my broker feed, and for GBP pairs it looks like the weekly trend respects the direction of that first 4H candle much more than 50% of times... It's a very interesting bias, even in a straddle system...
That section in bold could be the edge that this system has, I too would appreciate if someone went through and checked. Maybe if the first two bars on a H1 chart are the same direction the end of the week will be in the same direction, or maybe the first 3 bars on a 30M chart, or 20bars on a 1M chart. The key here is to Look For A Pattern
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 4H Weekly Box Breakout.mq4   14 KB | 3,533 downloads
  • #111
  • May 13, 2009 11:57pm May 13, 2009 11:57pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun

If a lot of people use the same strategy at the same time, then theoretically the market as a whole would move based on this system. Because everybody is trading it. What Nasir fails to realize is that forex is a multi trillion dollar industry and the total money of ForexFactory viewers cannot possibly make a dent in that monetary figure. Had this been the stock market, then Nasir's claim might hold true--if you were trading with penny stocks, or other low volume stocks.
Ronald i agree with you no matter i am wrong but what important is this would work for really long term.
  • #112
  • May 14, 2009 12:10am May 14, 2009 12:10am
Quoting nasir.khan
Ronald i agree with you no matter i am wrong but what important is this would work for really long term.
Yep. Hopefully with the EA now released into the wild, I'll see some results from people showing their tests regarding what I mentioned above.
  • #113
  • Edited 8:16am May 14, 2009 6:04am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The theory is simple enough:

If a lot of people use the same strategy at the same time, then theoretically the market as a whole would move based on this system. Because everybody is trading it. What Nasir fails to realize is that forex is a multi trillion dollar industry and the total money of ForexFactory viewers cannot possibly make a dent in that monetary figure.
Exactly .... Even if all FF memeber put the same order at the same time i doubt it could move the market...



Quoting Ronald Raygun
That section in bold could be the edge that this system has, I too would appreciate if someone went through and checked. Maybe if the first two bars on a H1 chart are the same direction the end of the week will be in the same direction, or maybe the first 3 bars on a 30M chart, or 20bars on a 1M chart. The key here is to Look For A Pattern
That's what came to my eyes is a first glance.... but I must admit that it was a very quick analysis.... At the moment what I'm doing is the same... looking for some kind of pattern to put the odds on our side, even knowing of that it's a straddle system .... and of course trying not to twist it... I like simple approaches....

Thanks for the feedback, Ronald!!

As soon as I got more data I will post it...

Cheers

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #114
  • May 14, 2009 6:07am May 14, 2009 6:07am
Ronald, this is probably a stupid question, nonetheless, should be should we be putting any value on the breakout buffer?

Thanks

Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #115
  • May 14, 2009 7:26am May 14, 2009 7:26am
Ezzy,

BreakoutBuffer is just the number of pips outside the range. Some people like to trade "high/low +/- x pips".
  • #116
  • May 14, 2009 8:02am May 14, 2009 8:02am
Ronald, Thanks for the EA. Could you please make and indicator for this system. Thanks that would be great, cuz i just use MT4 for charts.
Yea it's Life//
  • #117
  • May 14, 2009 8:11am May 14, 2009 8:11am
Quoting serj1
Ronald, Thanks for the EA. Could you please make and indicator for this system. Thanks that would be great, cuz i just use MT4 for charts.
Set SignalsOnly to true, and pick any combination of Alerts, Sound, and Mail.
  • #118
  • May 14, 2009 8:21am May 14, 2009 8:21am
Oh ok Thanks
Yea it's Life//
  • #119
  • May 14, 2009 8:22am May 14, 2009 8:22am
Sorry, Ronald... just corrected my mistake on last post....
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #120
  • May 14, 2009 11:27am May 14, 2009 11:27am
I have done some research to the beginning of March giving us 11 trades so far on the pair GBP/JPY.

Entry: Break of the 4hr candle

Exit: @ R:R 1:2 OR if not reached by the end of day, close the trade

SL: High/low of the 4hr candle.

See the results in the Word document. It’s very raw data but if you read my explanation you will understand it. If not, feel free to ask for further explanation.

My opinion is that the amount of 30m candles being the same color as the 4hr candle is very important. As you can see in all trades where we had at least 6 out of 8 30m candles being the same color as the 4hr candle, it was a winner.

Reversal trades are OK IMO despite the amount of 30m candles being the same color as the 4hr candle, only 1 losing reversal trade.
And if we respect the requirement for the non-reversal trades of at least 6/8 30m candles the same color as the 4hr candle, we would had only 1 loser out of 9 trades and 8 winners. And on top of that the average R:R ratio was 1:1,5.

To me it sounds very profitable, but the time of backtesting is not very long on the other side.

Note: You will see some higher R:R ratio’s than 1:2 but that’s just fyi in case someone wants to aim for the higher ones.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc 4hr-box-backtest.doc   28 KB | 3,340 downloads
2 traders viewing now