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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #175,841
  • May 8, 2009 10:08pm May 8, 2009 10:08pm
I had managed to have a setup where I can choose any TF (1..24 hrs) I want too without using those period converter:-).

Is it 3 minutes TF? What did you use 8hr TF for? Thanks.
  • #175,842
  • May 8, 2009 10:14pm May 8, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting rgitt05
Here is my POV..For the past several weeks the PA tested the 150.00 resistance zone several times.. Based on my charts, I still see overall direction as bullish..

Now I have been buying on the dips from 141.00 area..I am a swing trader so I look at the big picture where this beast is heading..I see many posters talk alot about VSA which I am not an user.. All this talk about volume on a friday doesn't mean nothing to me IMHO..At the end of the day on fridays volume most of the time is low, so all this PA is BS....

i agree with the long term trend but we could visit 142-140 and the long term trend will stay intact and about the risk aversion (I'm sure you meant risk appetite) i think its better to wait to get clearer view about whats going to happen before you decide so .. im not bull nor bear but something tells me that the next week we're going to drift lower,

i like to trade by the moment and just hope someday i'll be millionaire and trade long term, just like you, leaving positions for weeks and months perhaps?, but untill then i'll trade using the direction of H4 chart and triggers from M15-M30 charts because i dont want to be in 60s by the time i make good money.
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #175,843
  • Edited 10:52pm May 8, 2009 10:31pm | Edited 10:52pm
What fundamentals do you see that will hold this back? The rates came out for GU and US with no change and the stock market bias for the banks are positive...Unemployment is slowly improving..etc....Stock market is bullish for the past 8 weeks...What other news this month will hold this beast from heading to the fibs levels on the weekly and monthly charts?

TA: overall trend on the daily is still bullish...I would try to stay away from the lower TF unless you are scalping...Scalping are for the Pro's who are very confident with their style of trading...I prefer my 8 hrs of sleep than to stay up all night watching for crazy PA on lower TF...Start the week by looking at the higher TF and work your way down to lower TF until you see a clear view of the overall trend...Take only trade in the daily trend direction and buy on dips in that direction..indicators lag

Sure PB is expected but I will buy more if I see more dips...Remember, I started this trade from the 141.00 range looking at the PA on the daily chart..
Compounding is the key if you want to build your account...Small targets at a time is one safe way to do it...30-50 pips per trade is good average for GJ on 1hr,4hr TF...


Trend is your friend.





Quoting Obaidah
i agree with the long term trend but we could visit 142-140 and the long term trend will stay intact and about the risk aversion (I'm sure you meant risk appetite) i think its better to wait to get clearer view about whats going to happen before you decide so .. im not bull nor bear but something tells me that the next week we're going to drift lower,

i like to trade by the moment and just hope someday i'll be millionaire and trade long term, just like you, leaving positions for weeks and months perhaps?, but untill then i'll trade using the...
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  • #175,844
  • May 8, 2009 10:33pm May 8, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting quecee5
AWWWWWWWWW here it go. . .
******************************************************

Okay - Ladies and gents it looks like the 1st part of this weekly plan is working out so far - Lets see what happens over the next couple of sessions.

Back 2nite -

Below is the full post from Saturday 04/04/2009

Sell @ 149.50/150 (may go up slightly more 150.15/151.50 - major resistance up here) for a ride down to 0.618 Fib of the last 5th wave move. . . Entire trade will be liquidated at 137.50/138/139

Flip the trade to buy at 137.50/138 or low, From there I expect ranging from 138-148 area for at least 5 days or so. . . Therefore, I will hold to 148 and sell 3/4 position at that price. Then wait for another drop to add to original position at 139/138 with SL at 136.50/137. . .

Hold that position until 165. . . sell entire position at 165 and flip trade to short for a ride down to 142/140.40. . . buy it back in that range for a ride to 181.. . . SL with be set at 139. . .

This should start the spring/summer rally which should start ar'd 04/12th leading up to 04/19th

Hold on to this post and lets see how it plays out every step of the way over the next 25-30 days. . .

I will keep it handy so if/when it plays out we can check off each play as it occurs. . .

All my analysis is based on the daily/weekly/monthly chart. . .

Anyway lets see what next week has in store for us. . . Just can't see it just keep continuing to go up if the uptrend is to continue. . .

JMHO!

regards

i love this post Q

we are doing somewhat similar to what you posted. great analysis.

we are currently on the 165 leg, then back down to 141/142 area hopefully.
  • #175,845
  • May 8, 2009 10:40pm May 8, 2009 10:40pm
or maybe, just maybe its 155.87 and then back to 141.7

lets see how the monthly plays out.
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  • #175,846
  • May 8, 2009 10:42pm May 8, 2009 10:42pm
Yeah Bro,

Trade your charts is the best advice I tell people who are new at this business..

If your style works, stick with it and make the pips..It may work for you but not for others...

The holy grail is yourself.. Believe in yourself not others..However, be open mind for other ppl styles to improve your technique..

Thanks for your feedback..

I sleep better when I catch the wave on the higher TF..

Patience is the key for the big swing setup..

I spend less time now trading forex than in the past..

Overall PA in swing trade goes up or down...

Keep it simple and get a life away from forex...

Catch the wave!!!

Peace...



Quoting forexlion
great analysis bro

keep up the good work, surely volume shit is for scalpers.
Attached Image
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  • #175,847
  • May 8, 2009 10:46pm May 8, 2009 10:46pm
Yeah "Q" is very precise with the details with the overall long term PA...

It's worth reading his analysis.

I keep it simple and follow the overall trend..

Look at the higher TF and you will see the PA bounced off the 118 area and never stop climbing every week..



Quoting forexlion
i love this post Q

we are doing somewhat similar to what you posted. great analysis.

we are currently on the 165 leg, then back down to 141/142 area hopefully.
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  • #175,848
  • May 8, 2009 10:55pm May 8, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting rgitt05
Yeah "Q" is very precise with the details with the overall long term PA...

It's worth reading his analysis.

I keep it simple and follow the overall trend..

Look at the higher TF and you will see the PA bounced off the 118 area and never stop climbing every week..

shhhhhh......there is no buying volume [joking]
  • #175,849
  • May 8, 2009 11:06pm May 8, 2009 11:06pm
Since April 23 I bought a big position observing the weekly,monthly chart and I checked the fundies news and any major news that I think will cause the overall trend to change..Every time I see PA dip, I add to my position as long as the overall TL holds...So far, I am overall in the green for total of 950+ pips that took about 2 1/2 week to happen...I managed to get a life outside of forex and sleep more often...Swing trade will allow you to have more free time..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=172873



Quoting Obaidah
i agree with the long term trend but we could visit 142-140 and the long term trend will stay intact and about the risk aversion (I'm sure you meant risk appetite) i think its better to wait to get clearer view about whats going to happen before you decide so .. im not bull nor bear but something tells me that the next week we're going to drift lower,

i like to trade by the moment and just hope someday i'll be millionaire and trade long term, just like you, leaving positions for weeks and months perhaps?, but untill then i'll trade using the...
[
  • #175,850
  • May 9, 2009 12:15am May 9, 2009 12:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=175783

As of now I miss 6 pips from yesterday last long from 149.15 but should be ok as I already set my trailing stop of 15 pips and let she run when open tomorrow

Overall we still have tendency to going back to 148.50 as long as PA not break above 150.80 next week..Then we may have tendency going to 155

H4/D1 - Told me that if 150.80 failed next week 148.50 possible.

D1- Told me a same thing thing for seeing at 150.80 level.Break that point 152.35-155 possible unless she failed and going back to 148.50 and see if 148 break for 146.32 @32.8%.Break 148 50%@145 to 61.8%@143.50 where she will sit 61.8% area become crutial for more bear @ 141.50 -139 the most.

Weekly - Interesting part was @151.50 for north if not 131.24 is the most..

As a conclusion I will monitor H4 closely 0%-23.6% between 150.80-149.90 next week.

Anyway Happy weekend and see you next week...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.JPG Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.JPG Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.JPG Size: 85 KB
  • #175,851
  • Edited 3:19am May 9, 2009 2:19am | Edited 3:19am
GJ Daily with volume.
http://i43.tinypic.com/2ykz0d4.jpg
Low volume reversals..like clock work. The entire retrace off 119. is loosing steam. The second to last volume bar, yes is higher, but its a pin bar. The last candle is a friday, so dont read too much into it. ...I just blew your mind.
  • #175,852
  • Edited 5:14am May 9, 2009 4:46am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting malcolmb14
nice run today . Took a sell before market closed . who is buying ??/ the volume was marked up 200 pip on low volume and not only low but divergence. That is why sells did not work they market was being manipulated in low volume Friday after noon session

This may actually signify some weakness going into early next week .

This ties in with my theory that GJ is being distributed on the 4 hour chart

Attachment
isnt that divergence just a normal drop in volume after london close? looking at that chart it seems to happen every day.

I did notice that GU, EJ and EU were all flying the entire day......while GJ just went sideways. If GJ isnt gonna fly when everything else is, then I would imagine there is nowhere to go but down before it makes any moves higher as clearly nobody was interested in buying it.

Also notice the drop after a much better than expected NFP when you would normally expect GJ to go into orbit, could be a massive distribution setting up shorts into what should have been very large bull strength?? would seem to tie in with malcolmbs view.

normally i would have just been going long here anyway on the basis that its been in a strong uptrend, economically the worst is behind us, and most news releases have been better than expected for the last few weeks, so in any logical sense, there wouldnt be any reason for it to go down ESPECIALLY after much better than expected NFP. but looking at it now im not so sure, and i do have a habit of going the opposite way at the wrong time, which would also suggest down is the right direction lol
  • #175,853
  • Edited 5:55am May 9, 2009 4:58am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting Estero
volume is just another tool in your toolbox, don't need it to make money in forex, you need alot of experience with it to use it properly as any other tool.
yeah, I am still looking for the tools that work for me, at the same time trying not to end up using 10 at once and confuse the whole thing. just gets difficult jumping from one to the other when nothing seems to work. need to string 4 or 5 decent trades together.
  • #175,854
  • May 9, 2009 5:46am May 9, 2009 5:46am
Quoting rgitt05
TA: overall trend on the daily is still bullish...Start the week by looking at the higher TF and work your way down to lower TF until you see a clear view of the overall trend...Take only trade in the daily trend direction and buy on dips in that direction..indicators lag...
I agree totally, I temporarily lost my medium term focus, which is CLEARLY up on the monthly charts, and also failed to pay attention to the shorter timeframe charts, that were indicating "buy BUY BUY" lol, Anyway ended the week net positive, but it could have been so much more.

I'll post charts and upgraded indicators later.
  • #175,855
  • May 9, 2009 6:13am May 9, 2009 6:13am
Ok, so I've got my hands on the Jurik series, so I'm upgrading all my RSX indicators. I also coded a DOUBLE RSX indicator, not sure I'm as excited about its usefulness as the Jurik Site, but I'll post it here for your evaluation.

The Jurik series allows you to smooth the RSX, without changing the period. It also allows you access to 14 different price types to run the RSX on.

I found the price type changes were best seen in the JRSX, it's not that obvious on the MA of RSX. It also appears that the previous RSX indicator was based on a smoothing of 1. I have defaulted the smoothing of the new indicators to 3.

Changing the smoothing is best seen on the MA of RSX, as it will alter when the bars change color.

The following indicators :

JurXSeries.mqh
JJMASeries.mqh
PriceSeries.mqh

are required to be placed in: MetaTrader-Experts-Include (Do not try to compile the .mqh files)

and
Heiken Ashi#.mq4
JJRSX.mq4
MA of RSXv2
GH JRSX DIVERGENCE

to be placed in: MetaTrader-Experts-Indicators
Attached File(s)
File Type: mqh JurXSeries.mqh   30 KB | 985 downloads
File Type: mqh JJMASeries.mqh   43 KB | 863 downloads
File Type: mqh PriceSeries.mqh   6 KB | 871 downloads
File Type: mq4 Heiken Ashi#.mq4   4 KB | 782 downloads
File Type: mq4 JJRSX.mq4   9 KB | 972 downloads
File Type: mq4 GH_JRSX_Divergence.mq4   14 KB | 979 downloads
File Type: mq4 MA_of_RSX_v2.mq4   5 KB | 916 downloads
  • #175,856
  • May 9, 2009 6:14am May 9, 2009 6:14am
I bet GU fooled your bias on the lower TF...




Quoting GodfreyH
I agree totally, I temporarily lost my medium term focus, which is CLEARLY up on the monthly charts, and also failed to pay attention to the shorter timeframe charts, that were indicating "buy BUY BUY" lol, Anyway ended the week net positive, but it could have been so much more.

I'll post charts and upgraded indicators later.
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  • #175,857
  • Edited 6:37am May 9, 2009 6:17am | Edited 6:37am
Here are a couple of Cable charts with the indicators. A CLEAR buy above the T3MA 30 min chart.

First chart shows the JRSX and the Double RSX. The second chart, shows the MA OF RSX and the obvious bullish divergence.

I've mentioned it before, that the T3MA is a particularly lagging indicator. Normally that would be a bad thing, HOWEVER, in plain terms this means that if the T3MA cannot keep up with price, then a trend is taking place. When price catches up to it, balance is restored, trend over.

EDIT: Forgot the rsx double
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd2.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RSX DOUBLE.mq4   3 KB | 603 downloads
  • #175,858
  • May 9, 2009 6:30am May 9, 2009 6:30am
Quoting grashid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=175783

As of now I miss 6 pips from yesterday last long from 149.15 but should be ok as I already set my trailing stop of 15 pips and let she run when open tomorrow

Overall we still have tendency to going back to 148.50 as long as PA not break above 150.80 next week..Then we may have tendency going to 155

H4/D1 - Told me that if 150.80 failed next week 148.50 possible.

D1- Told me a same thing thing for seeing at 150.80 level.Break that point 152.35-155 possible unless...
Hi Grashid, a stupid question but... are your analysis for price levels above Friday close based on Fibonacci Extentions? Thanks!
  • #175,859
  • May 9, 2009 6:32am May 9, 2009 6:32am
Quoting rgitt05
I bet GU fooled your bias on the lower TF...

To tell the truth, I wasn't really using my normal system, I was trading based on a daily "dark cloud" candlestick pattern.
  • #175,860
  • May 9, 2009 6:53am May 9, 2009 6:53am
Here is a simple approach I use on a daily chart.

If you can identify the overall trend on the daily chart, than buy on dips in that direction..

I wait for the two indicators below to match up by color with the HA candles before taking the trade..

In this example below, I see the overall bias is bullish...I wait for the PA to test the overall daily TL than buy in the area which I considered the dips.


The best position is when you can buy on the bounce from the overall TL

Trend is your friend..




Quoting GodfreyH
To tell the truth, I wasn't really using my normal system, I was trading based on a daily "dark cloud" candlestick pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU daily.png Size: 93 KB
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