1 trade a day | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Cable double day / the two day "rule" 14 replies

A Day Traders Day? 7 replies

The best way to trade is one trade a day 76 replies

Day by Day 9 replies

The best Times of day to trade - or Not trade 16 replies

Attachments: 1 trade a day
Exit Attachments

1 trade a day

  • #261
  • May 6, 2009 6:46pm May 6, 2009 6:46pm
Okidoki, I am out of here.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #262
  • May 6, 2009 7:48pm May 6, 2009 7:48pm
The system seems to have evolved into a different system as new entries and take profit instructions are constantly introduced, there's also a time issue, sounds like alot of people can't match up with their broker and Tokyo start, etc.

The original system doesn't seem to be consistent enough to work hence we keep tweeking it as the market changes. I think maybe we should have been following the original instrcutions for about a month, just to get some real performance. I applied it to 9 different pairs, and it did well last week, but no so much this week. So, it may be like every other system, works sometimes and doesn't work most of the time.

my opinion,

good luck
  • #263
  • May 6, 2009 10:49pm May 6, 2009 10:49pm
If you come to the beginning of the thread, you'll see a note that the original system assumes trades along the trend only, and this note has now been completely disregarded. If you now have a look at daily charts with MACD you'll understand where we are now and where we were last week, so it's no wonder we see some losses ahead. Remember also, it's a volatility breakout system, so both using targets equal to the "start-of-the-day box" or trading "boxes" with too large an amplitude makes totally no sense. Look at these points a bit more carefully.
  • #264
  • May 7, 2009 1:56am May 7, 2009 1:56am
In the original system you buy he has 2 other criteria

A trend direction indicator so you trade only in the trend direction

And a visual interpretation on the atcual high low set up in the Asian session...ie he looks for small ranges a large spike one way or another increases the box size and in this circumstance he doesnt trade.

I dont mind the system evolving ...the break out and pull back version Im looking at still uses the Asian box and the break out with an entry on a rally or a pull back just hopefully gets me into the trade in the daily trend direction,which is what he was trying to do with his trend indicator.

Also this way of trading is mechanicaly once 8am is over and a break has occured up or down a lmt buy or sell can be placed and you can leave the PC...this could easily be managed by an EA

We use 1.68 as a TP and 0.00 as a SL which means our SL will always be smaller than our potential TP giving us a risk rewrad ratio in our favour

In the example Ive shown the TP is 101 pips the SL is 63 pips giving a RR of 1.6 not bad

agreed also on the example the initial break out does hit its TP BUT the new entry may well eliminate false break outs as it enters later and the entry for exampkle in the case of a long is always below the daily High so we have some room for up ward movement

cheers

Paulus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: G1.jpg Size: 32 KB
  • #265
  • May 7, 2009 2:43am May 7, 2009 2:43am
Forgive me if my maths are incorrect but surely if SL is 1.68 and TP is 100 then potential profit will always be less than the potential loss.
I have manually backtested this method , not to far back, and for what its worth and it nearly always gets to the 1.618 level. I like the idea and will go further back.
Steve




Quoting Paulus
In the original system you buy he has 2 other criteria

A trend direction indicator so you trade only in the trend direction

And a visual interpretation on the atcual high low set up in the Asian session...ie he looks for small ranges a large spike one way or another increases the box size and in this circumstance he doesnt trade.

I dont mind the system evolving ...the break out and pull back version Im looking at still uses the Asian box and the break out with an entry on a rally or a pull back just hopefully gets me into the trade in the...
  • #266
  • May 7, 2009 2:46am May 7, 2009 2:46am
I also use a trailing stop based on the DMI. In a falling price, lower highs the DMI is a good way of determining wher to put the SL. It has worked well in the past. If you use the 15m chart it may help reduce the potential losses.
  • #267
  • May 7, 2009 4:50am May 7, 2009 4:50am
Quoting Paulus
In the original system you buy he has 2 other criteria

A trend direction indicator so you trade only in the trend direction

And a visual interpretation on the atcual high low set up in the Asian session...ie he looks for small ranges a large spike one way or another increases the box size and in this circumstance he doesnt trade.

I dont mind the system evolving ...the break out and pull back version Im looking at still uses the Asian box and the break out with an entry on a rally or a pull back just hopefully gets me into the trade in the...

Paulus,
I see what you mean, instead of trading the breakout, we're waiting for the retrace to 61.8% of the asian session of the move. However, a move may go beyond 1.68 then pull back to 100% instead, perhaps we should trade the retrace of the breakout which may not pull back to 61.8 of the asisan session. just a thought.

thanks
hyper-fx
  • #268
  • May 7, 2009 6:15am May 7, 2009 6:15am
The main problem with all breakout systems is that they completely ignor the maket dynamics. And you can't make it any better just fiddling with artificially calculated levels. So, it doesn't matter if you enter on the actual breakout or on a retracement. For example today you would have losses both ways. But if you look at 30 minutes chart, you will see that there was a classic range market since the very close of yesterdaay's banking day, and volatility was low. So, it is just too risky to enter on a breakout. Better instead to wait till volatility increases. And after that looking for a continuation or a reversal. That's exactly what haappened today. You can see a volatility break down, and soon after that INCREASING range of an up baar. This is the best entry point to go long with target on the upper side of the day. BTW today was a good example of a pattern described by Igrok (his thread is here).
  • #269
  • May 7, 2009 6:29am May 7, 2009 6:29am
Just forgot to add. If you look at intraday history you would find that NO real, large and long move ever started from a flat range. There always should be a "false" break before the actual move begins. Remember that when trading breakouts.
  • #270
  • May 7, 2009 7:56am May 7, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Paulus
Look at this plse..comments on a post card

Instead of trying to catch the break ..wait for the break and then enter on a rally or pull back to the golden number

Look at the chart starting from the left needs to be 30min ..we get more bars :-)

Price broke out of the Tokyo high didnt hit 61.8 - no trade
Price broke out of the Tokyo high price hit 61.8 go long

follow the rest ..the trades are in yellow

for the long the stop is0.00 the tp is 1.68

so if the low is broken look short..high is broken look long



P
Hello Paulus, when the price go up, you trace FIB from the top and when price go down you trace Fib from the bottom of the asian range. Why ? is there a specific rule?
  • #271
  • May 7, 2009 2:24pm May 7, 2009 2:24pm
Hi Steve

TP is at the 161.8 fib level not 100

Hyper ....sound good will check it out


Piere..just place the fibs so that the TP or 161.8 level is above your entry

Hope thats helps sorry for the short answers

P
  • #272
  • May 7, 2009 7:27pm May 7, 2009 7:27pm
Well, I guess that now EVERYBODY else including Paulus is ignoring the original rules, perhaps Bilbiss won't mind me joining in again.

Crashed out last night so, didn't get to test the floating fibs, as I mentioned to Paulus.

Yeah, as I said before getting flac for it, the breakout is just too haphazard on the H1 on most days and we miss the trend on a lower TF which is hinting strongly at where it wants to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Floating fibs.jpg Size: 534 KB
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #273
  • May 7, 2009 8:13pm May 7, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting Rastaman
Well, I guess that now EVERYBODY else including Paulus is ignoring the original rules, perhaps Bilbiss won't mind me joining in again.

Crashed out last night so, didn't get to test the floating fibs, as I mentioned to Paulus.

Yeah, as I said before getting flac for it, the breakout is just too haphazard on the H1 on most days and we miss the trend on a lower TF which is hinting strongly at where it wants to go.
Rastaman,
Actually both breakout and pullback are risky if dynamics of the longer term trend is ignored. At least with pull back method, we can verify that there's a move that may go back to it. But, I also think we should not setup an exact pull back fib level to enter and exit as Paulus describes it. Market will not always abide by certain levels. The enter and exit positions should always be moving with the market.

My suggestion is after the asian session, we should verify the move as described by latest instructions then if there's a pull back to the main fib levels we enter at 1/4 positions, then exit when price goes back to the main move at a fib level of no more than 50% of the retrace. The only disadvantage is you must monitor your trades until it's over which is not the purpose of the Paulus system. But, hey, like you said we've tweeked the system already.

my opinion,
Hyper-fx
  • #274
  • May 7, 2009 10:47pm May 7, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting hyper-fx
Rastaman,
Actually both breakout and pullback are risky if dynamics of the longer term trend is ignored....

Yes, as you say, we must monitor this system but, that is no big problem, better than monitoring Burgers or even worse kids for 8 hours a day. Also, as has been mentioned, it is easier to see the break on a smaller TF the the H1 which seems to range much more than the M15 or M30 TF. That is the point I was trying to make.

All set for the London Crush.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled-1.jpg Size: 319 KB
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #275
  • May 7, 2009 11:15pm May 7, 2009 11:15pm
Quoting Rastaman
Yes, as you say, we must monitor this system but, that is no big problem, better than monitoring Burgers or even worse kids for 8 hours a day. Also, as has been mentioned, it is easier to see the break on a smaller TF the the H1 which seems to range much more than the M15 or M30 TF. That is the point I was trying to make.

All set for the London Crush.

Hi Rastaman,

I see on your pics that along with the high and low of the Asian session you also display the range. R=80 (or whatever). Is that part of the indicator you uploaded earlier in this post or something new? If it's new can you attach the new indicator? That would be great. Thanks!

Tony
  • #276
  • Edited 3:22am May 8, 2009 2:05am | Edited 3:22am
Attachment
Quoting adsanders
Hi Rastaman,

I see on your pics that along with the high and low of the Asian session you also display the range. R=80 (or whatever). Is that part of the indicator you uploaded earlier in this post or something new? If it's new can you attach the new indicator? That would be great. Thanks!

Tony

Sure, NP. Here is the auto fibo, the antbreakout and the template.

This is a good one with the SDX indicator warns you that a possible breakout is taking place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SDX breakout.jpg Size: 95 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ant breakout.zip   13 KB | 475 downloads
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #277
  • Edited 7:59am May 8, 2009 7:01am | Edited 7:59am
Do we have a downbreak on EUR/GBB coming up.

Obviously not, yet anyway.

Too slow for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.jpg Size: 157 KB
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #278
  • May 8, 2009 10:29am May 8, 2009 10:29am
Hi,
What is the red and blue line that look slike a Moving Average on the main chart.
Regards
Steve
PS I had my SL & TP the wrong way round in my last post :-(


Quoting Rastaman
Attachment

I think you must have me confused with someone else!


A lot of ranging going on right now, so I am experimenting with the De mark indicator to find the break inside the Asian daily.

Actually it is quite a good indi to use with this system and gives you a rough idea estimate of TP.
This is GPP/CHF where I am looking to find the break of ranging.

Earlier I managed to take 50 pips out og GBP/USD.....I love this system.
  • #279
  • May 8, 2009 4:51pm May 8, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting Rastaman
Attachment


Sure, NP. Here is the auto fibo, the antbreakout and the template.

This is a good one with the SDX indicator warns you that a possible breakout is taking place.
You are awesome! Thanks.

I did use the basics of the system this morning and made good pips on the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Both went long and I captured 20 pips each. I am happy.
  • #280
  • Edited May 9, 2009 4:11am May 8, 2009 5:25pm | Edited May 9, 2009 4:11am
Quoting stevecartwright
Hi,
What is the red and blue line that look slike a Moving Average on the main chart.
Regards
Steve
PS I had my SL & TP the wrong way round in my last post :-(
It is the Max Non Lag MA

Here you go



PS:: Anyone catch the EUR/GBP breakout last night?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.jpg Size: 489 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MAX_NonLagMA.ex4   8 KB | 299 downloads
Starting to see instead of just looking.
0 traders viewing now