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Silent Service Method

  • #1,381
  • May 6, 2009 5:47pm May 6, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
Looks like the aussie dollar is going from strength to strength with this bullish engulfing bar on the daily chart. A good idea to go long at the break of this daily bar that will close in 2.5 hours (on my chart)?
Hi!

There's too many things against it for my taste. That daily is closing right into .7500 which concurs with the weekly 61.8. In addition it has that classic buy on top feeling I ran into too many times so its a pass for me.
I'd keep a tight stop on that long if i were you.

Nice thread BTW
  • #1,382
  • May 6, 2009 6:20pm May 6, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting nfx
Hi!

There's too many things against it for my taste. That daily is closing right into .7500 which concurs with the weekly 61.8. In addition it has that classic buy on top feeling I ran into too many times so its a pass for me.
I'd keep a tight stop on that long if i were you.

Nice thread BTW
Yeah aussie is keeping things interesting. I'm still in this one and added on to my position a little earlier in the day. I feel like we are running into some resistance from historical levels but the 7500 level doesn't seem major since we only had a small bounce and even on low volume now we are slowly creeping up. My stops are tight since I have a good bit of profit on this run but I'm targetting 7700 minus couple pips since that is the strong resistance turned support previously and the one now was just from a pullback move support turned res.
But a little earlier when I added to the position after the previous couple of breaks it was a nice classic scenario of...there are way more recent close supports than resistances and although the bounce down from fib 38 7475 was a bit much for my liking, in the end it didn't hold and looking at the complete picture of my trade my S/L under the supports was less than the profit I would grb from this trade so it made sense in my mind.
The further I go on with this the more I understand how much MM plays a role in all of these trades and I'm practicing a couple different techniques so see which one makes me most comfortable and lets me sleep easy at night. It's a pain recently since I have end of year exams and work so I'm not getting much sleep to begin with.

Keep a clear head guys and good trading.
  • #1,383
  • May 6, 2009 7:14pm May 6, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting jicjoc
Hey guys...
My Oanda feed is showing a bearish pin around the 1.5 area.
Personally i've no interest in going short now.

My fxpro feed is showing a bullish daily pin down off 1.5
This does interest me.

Pending order placed on break of these levels at 1.52 heading for 1.5350
Any interest?
just to clarify, maby you guys can help me on this but that 'bullish' pin is from my understanding bearish as it is known as a hanging man in candlestick terms (im currently reading Nisons book).... for it to be bullish it has to be in a downtrend not an uptrend....
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,384
  • May 6, 2009 8:17pm May 6, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting whitegoodman
.... for it to be bullish it has to be in a downtrend not an uptrend....
Yep...
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #1,385
  • May 6, 2009 8:47pm May 6, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting whitegoodman
just to clarify, maby you guys can help me on this but that 'bullish' pin is from my understanding bearish as it is known as a hanging man in candlestick terms (im currently reading Nisons book).... for it to be bullish it has to be in a downtrend not an uptrend....

that's correct. the comment about different pin's on different brokers is due to the time used as start/end of day that's all it is since Oanda probably uses your local time and fxpro uses some predefined time by default. Personally I like to go by end of day US market and start of day Aussie which is 5PM EST. I believe this is most accurate but in the end...it's my belief that's all it is and I think it's just something to get used to.

The only other thing bout the pin bars in uptrend / downtrend...even if it is opposite the "rule" it can still give you an indication of price movement
  • #1,386
  • May 6, 2009 11:44pm May 6, 2009 11:44pm
G/U has broken through the major ppz @ 1.500 reaching 1.5150. Price then retraced back to 1.500 and is now close to 1.5150 again.
If price breaks above 1.5150 is this the classic break-out scenario?
Next resistance 1.5500?
  • #1,387
  • May 7, 2009 12:07am May 7, 2009 12:07am
Ony possible problem is divergence on MACD.
If the trade is otherwise valid should this be seen as an obstacle?
  • #1,388
  • May 7, 2009 12:12am May 7, 2009 12:12am
Quoting jonaslt
that's correct. the comment about different pin's on different brokers is due to the time used as start/end of day that's all it is since Oanda probably uses your local time and fxpro uses some predefined time by default. Personally I like to go by end of day US market and start of day Aussie which is 5PM EST. I believe this is most accurate but in the end...it's my belief that's all it is and I think it's just something to get used to.

The only other thing bout the pin bars in uptrend / downtrend...even if it is opposite the "rule" it can...
oh really i knew there were different closings of 4hr bars didnt realise day bars are different aswell... u happen to know what ibfx does?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,389
  • May 7, 2009 12:38am May 7, 2009 12:38am
Quoting whitegoodman
oh really i knew there were different closings of 4hr bars didnt realise day bars are different aswell... u happen to know what ibfx does?
IBFX is on gmt time. Daily close is currently 8 pm est.(east coast USA)
Take care,
Dave
  • #1,390
  • May 7, 2009 12:53am May 7, 2009 12:53am
Quoting davema
IBFX is on gmt time. Daily close is currently 8 pm est.(east coast USA)
Take care,
Dave
so basically the only large TF's where you can trust the candle is 1hr and weeklys?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,391
  • May 7, 2009 2:48am May 7, 2009 2:48am
From my experiences relating to the Time Frames it's not really about the hours and the shape of candles (As I'm sure was mentioned by CW before) - it is more about how price reacts at a certain price, yes the shape of the candle helps but it's not the No.1 determining factor, at least for me. It is like if price tries to reach a certain area and tests it, and depending on how you read the charts you can see that it was rejected hard and fast is a good sign of rejection. Whereas being rejected soft and slow as in placid, it is likely to test it again and then some

Hope this helps

VB,
  • #1,392
  • May 7, 2009 3:43am May 7, 2009 3:43am
Quoting jonaslt
that's correct. the comment about different pin's on different brokers is due to the time used as start/end of day that's all it is since Oanda probably uses your local time and fxpro uses some predefined time by default. Personally I like to go by end of day US market and start of day Aussie which is 5PM EST. I believe this is most accurate but in the end...it's my belief that's all it is and I think it's just something to get used to.

The only other thing bout the pin bars in uptrend / downtrend...even if it is opposite the "rule" it can still...
Why does a pin have to be in a downtrend to be bullish?
It will quickly become bullish if we get a daily close above it.

From what ive seen in forextester a pin like that (if broken) validates the up trend. Im treating it the same as any other pin.

I dont like pins that are counter trend. Unless there is room enough to get stops to breakeven, they usually take me out on forextester, so i either set a TP or ignore them totally.
For GU or USDCAD currently a weekly pin would be needed as the moves have been strong

GU is hemmed in a range and cant decide now.
Daily close below 1.5 or above 1.52 is what im waiting for.
  • #1,393
  • May 7, 2009 6:03am May 7, 2009 6:03am
Quoting jicjoc
Why does a pin have to be in a downtrend to be bullish?
It will quickly become bullish if we get a daily close above it.

From what ive seen in forextester a pin like that (if broken) validates the up trend. Im treating it the same as any other pin.

I dont like pins that are counter trend. Unless there is room enough to get stops to breakeven, they usually take me out on forextester, so i either set a TP or ignore them totally.
For GU or USDCAD currently a weekly pin would be needed as the moves have been strong

GU is hemmed in a range and cant...
The general idea of a pin bar is that it indicates a reversal in trend, by definition the pin bar has to be opposite current direction...long lower shadow in a downtrend, long upper in an uptrend. What I meant personally is that while going with the trend it can help support the direction as it bounces off of S/R. that's how I see them but usually I prefer just to look at lower TF to see what's going on since in the end that's all candlestick formtions are, underlying price movement and price patterns.
  • #1,394
  • May 7, 2009 8:46am May 7, 2009 8:46am
very nice setup on UJ..
Matbe in a risky day considering all the news coming...
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  • #1,395
  • May 7, 2009 10:25am May 7, 2009 10:25am
Just wanted to reflect back on one of the recent trades on AUDUSD that was mentioned here before and looking back a lot of it was by the book and resulted in a run of 200+ pips. As a few guys said, after a couple of these you won't look back to the way you traded before.

Clear support levels, entry after support held, and kept running with the river until the stop. the only criticism I can give on that was I believe the stop might have been too tight as it wasn't at last swing low and rather swing hi, but at the moment I was too concerned and not comfortable with such profit and decided to keep it tight especially with the news coming out.

Once again, thanks to CW and contributors here to improving my trading little by little we all get better.

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  • #1,396
  • May 7, 2009 11:16am May 7, 2009 11:16am
Nice job CW. I read alot of your thread and you made me realize that this style of trading will fit anyones lifestyle.

Now, I am more of a day trader as a hobby (I am still in school), however the S/R concepts I have put to good use with the Pound for my best gains.

Anyway, here's my contribution. It' USDCAD. The chart can say enough. I have been wanting to buy this from 1.200 but never did. Once the markets get excited about Geithner or anything else, they tend to think we are free and clear of a economic crisis. Looking back in history, things never just correct or turn on a dime.

Nonetheless, I see this as a quality opportunity in USDCAD to take a long on approach to 1.3000 .. An excess of 1000 pips may be available for the taking!

Have a look all. If you trade GBP/USD, drop by interactive trading, GBP/USD (Cable Update).

Cheers!

Note ... there is a small white box at the 38.2 area. This just represents the 1.200 psych level .. and on small TFs you can see its been respected.
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  • #1,397
  • May 7, 2009 11:49am May 7, 2009 11:49am
Quoting jonaslt
Just wanted to reflect back on one of the recent trades on AUDUSD that was mentioned here before and looking back a lot of it was by the book and resulted in a run of 200+ pips. As a few guys said, after a couple of these you won't look back to the way you traded before.

Clear support levels, entry after support held, and kept running with the river until the stop. the only criticism I can give on that was I believe the stop might have been too tight as it wasn't at last swing low and rather swing hi, but at the moment I was too concerned and not...
Getting comfortable with your 200 pip profits actually IS a hurdle to get past. I know it doesn't sound possible to someone that doesn't get those runs, but it's kind of hard to give up 80 pips at the end of a 500 pip run....if you are used to 30 pips gains. It's all in your head.

Congrats on the trades, and keep going....you are on the right path.

CW
  • #1,398
  • May 7, 2009 12:40pm May 7, 2009 12:40pm
HI CW, looks like a daily pin may be forming off a good PPZ and the rejection of the1.50 round number and a potential double top forming. the longer term trend is also bearish, although we have seen the gbp appreciating vs the yen since mid jan 09.
definitely an area to watch and wait and see how this daily bar closes. could be interesting set up for a short. There was a nice pin on the 4 hour chart that already successfully triggered.
Interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
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  • #1,399
  • May 7, 2009 12:57pm May 7, 2009 12:57pm
I've been thinking about this short for a few days and have had 2 break-even trades.....I'm in again.
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting Dopped Onion
HI CW, looks like a daily pin may be forming off a good PPZ and the rejection of the1.50 round number and a potential double top forming. the longer term trend is also bearish, although we have seen the gbp appreciating vs the yen since mid jan 09.
definitely an area to watch and wait and see how this daily bar closes. could be interesting set up for a short. There was a nice pin on the 4 hour chart that already successfully triggered.
Interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
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  • #1,400
  • May 7, 2009 1:04pm May 7, 2009 1:04pm
good looking setup on euraud
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