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Silent Service Method

  • #1,361
  • May 5, 2009 1:28pm May 5, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting hel13rock
I can see that 1.34 has acted as a s/r level in the past but not for the significant moves which I would put as 1.36 above and 1.30 below which is where the MAJOR swing highs and lows have occured. I also have a trendline running down which would suggest a move up to 1.36 before a short signal.

Just my opinion.

If there's one thing I've learnt from CW (and there's not one there's hundreds) it's to look at the bigger picture and then maybe zoom out one more.
Oooh... yes right, when I zoom out more, I've found the levels that you've found, a real eye opener from the experienced's prespective

That's great, Thanks a lot
  • #1,362
  • May 5, 2009 1:36pm May 5, 2009 1:36pm
Hmm... I don't feel experienced but when I think about it I've been trading forex for a year now.

I can honestly say that my consistently profitable months started when I discovered this thread.

I only trade 0.01 volume per trade at the moment, why waste money whilst you are learning? As my bank increases so will my volume...
  • #1,363
  • May 5, 2009 4:57pm May 5, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
This is the beauty of price action. I was going to short the pin bar on the daily chart last week at the left eye, but I decided to would be a lot wiser to short 15 pips below the low of that pin.
Since the pin was never validated and instead its high broken, I could look for a typical breakout, pullback continuation pattern, that has since played out also putting me long.

A lot of people seem to think that you make money trading because you can predict the future (short to medium term) of a currency or stock. Instead, traders don't predict the...
I would say this about this post:

Newbie traders that are truly serious about "making it" in trading, need to print this out backwards, and staple it to their heads so that every time you look in the mirror, you are reminded of this.

I could not agree more.
  • #1,364
  • May 5, 2009 4:58pm May 5, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Hey Clockwork, there is a weekly fib line 38.2 right above this long trade. Does this concern you at all or does this trade have the ability to move through it?
You can draw a fib from anywhere. I am not overly concerned about a fib most of the time, it just adds to a reason to take a trade sometimes.....
  • #1,365
  • May 5, 2009 5:21pm May 5, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting hel13rock
Hi all, I just shorted euraud due to the break and hold below 1.8 on the 4h.

Now, this may seem obvious and it's related to my last stupid question I asked CW a while ago which was if eurxxx is going down would you be reluctant to go long eurxxx?

My point is, if fundamentals (the really big picture) tells you a currency is weakening (like the euro is right now) and all the crosses of that currency are trending downwards (which if you look I believe most of the euro pairs ARE trending downwards) then it's not a coincidence that I have made money...
I agree with this post, but let me explain how I look at things, to cut through clutter:

Taking your scenario of a weakening Euro, I would start looking at shorting it in general, yes.....but it just shows me a general direction. Remember, I wait for price action no matter what.

But, at the same time, if you see that the CAD is strong across the board, my A#1 choice (If I get a signal) is shorting EUR/CAD.

Hope this made sense.
  • #1,366
  • May 5, 2009 5:25pm May 5, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Hi,

I'm waiting for this last bar to close lower than the previous to form a BEOB/DBLHC, it is located at a good swing high and at a crazy good weekly PPZ, on both the EURUSD and GBPUSD 4H.

It's my first time trying to trade on 4H TF and therefore I'm going to demo it, still I'm a little confused about the trading plan, on where to put stops intially, CW said once that he put stops not on the opposite side of the PA but a few pips above the weekly PPZ?

can anyone shed a light or a better prespective here?

Thanks
It depends, although you should always be at a weekly area, so it should be one and the same. But I think this is what you are referring to:

If as an example, ten pips above your bar to short is a random number, like.....1.4991, I prefer to put stops ABOVE the next handle. In this case, I would probably use 1.5020. (As an example.) The reasoning is two-fold, as you have the selling at the top of the bar, AND the psychological level of 1.50.

Hope this cleared it up.
  • #1,367
  • May 5, 2009 5:25pm May 5, 2009 5:25pm
Just draw the 55 EMA on the weekly chart of AUDUSD and then look on it once more.
Then draw the 233 EMA on the daily chart and take one more look.
That's it.
  • #1,368
  • May 5, 2009 5:28pm May 5, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
It looks like a pin could be forming on the audusd daily chart. we still have 3 hours to new york close. I remember you saying that a pin in the opposite direction is something you consider in closing out a trade. What do you make of the current audusd situation CW? Lets see what happens.
Think of it this way: I wouldn't let it go against me. In a perfect world, you are way up right now, and can put your stop loss just below the bar. But always remember this: Job number 1 is protect your trading funds.

If you set a stop at b/e and get taken out - it happens, no worries. No need to take a loss on such a nice short signal, even if it turns out to be false.

I won't be the first time you are wrong, trust me.


Note - the answer was a "one size fits all" answer. I couldn't fault you for taking that profit 10 pips below the daily bar.....I would do that mainly because at that point that we are thinking short, which by definition means NOT LONG. lol

CW
  • #1,369
  • May 5, 2009 5:29pm May 5, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting fxpractice
Just draw the 55 EMA on the weekly chart of AUDUSD and then look on it once more.
Then draw the 233 EMA on the daily chart and take one more look.
That's it.
Lagging indicators have no real use in my method. Of course, you could explain why 55 days average means anything? Why not 20 which is a trading month? Or 40 for 2? 233? Doesn't mean anything.
  • #1,370
  • May 5, 2009 5:30pm May 5, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
pound swiss (gbpchf) is slowly approaching pivot zone around 1.75 - maybe one to watch in the future as I know you highlighted this chart a few weeks back.

Yeah, this one wants to move.....and when it does, IT DOES.
  • #1,371
  • May 5, 2009 5:35pm May 5, 2009 5:35pm
That's nice. Eur is weakening in general, usdcad is in a serious downtrend and in fact the Cad IS looking strong against most other currencies. Put the two together and eurcad seems a safe bet.

I understand the price action bit, I've read the thread 2 or 3 times through...

So, I am right in thinking that you can think this way to give you a better idea of where to look for the right kind of price action to give you the right kind of trade.

Not that I'm thinking there won't be trades that don't fit this profile at all but if my perception of the market in this way can give me a little extra edge then I'll take it!

Thanks CW, another lesson learnt.
  • #1,372
  • May 5, 2009 5:40pm May 5, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting hel13rock
That's nice. Eur is weakening in general, usdcad is in a serious downtrend and in fact the Cad IS looking strong against most other currencies. Put the two together and eurcad seems a safe bet.

I understand the price action bit, I've read the thread 2 or 3 times through...

So, I am right in thinking that you can think this way to give you a better idea of where to look for the right kind of price action to give you the right kind of trade.

Not that I'm thinking there won't be trades that don't fit this profile at all but if my perception of...

For me, I don't look beyond the weekly areas, it just gives me a potential "heads up".

CW
  • #1,373
  • May 5, 2009 5:52pm May 5, 2009 5:52pm
Right.
But it is not an indicator. It is just another point of view on s/r locations.
And this point of view is not bad.
If you'll draw that "lagging indicator" number 233 on the monthly chart of AUDUSD you'll probably find there another resistance.
I'm very sorry about my awfull english.
  • #1,374
  • May 5, 2009 5:55pm May 5, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting clockwork71
For me, I don't look beyond the weekly areas, it just gives me a potential "heads up".

CW
I think that's what I'm trying to say... if you have a good reason to short a pair and the same currency just happens to be looking weak against a whole bunch of other currencies then that adds just one more reason to go with that trade. On its own it's not enough but in conjunction with other reasons it can strengthen the case to open the trade.
  • #1,375
  • May 5, 2009 6:08pm May 5, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting clockwork71
Think of it this way: I wouldn't let it go against me. In a perfect world, you are way up right now, and can put your stop loss just below the bar. But always remember this: Job number 1 is protect your trading funds.

If you set a stop at b/e and get taken out - it happens, no worries. No need to take a loss on such a nice short signal, even if it turns out to be false.

I won't be the first time you are wrong, trust me.


Note - the answer was a "one size fits all" answer. I couldn't fault you for taking that profit 10 pips below the...
Thanks for the feedback CW!
  • #1,376
  • May 6, 2009 6:04am May 6, 2009 6:04am
Hey guys...
My Oanda feed is showing a bearish pin around the 1.5 area.
Personally i've no interest in going short now.

My fxpro feed is showing a bullish daily pin down off 1.5
This does interest me.

Pending order placed on break of these levels at 1.52 heading for 1.5350
Any interest?
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  • #1,377
  • May 6, 2009 11:20am May 6, 2009 11:20am
CW, any interest in the gbpusd at the moment? The pair had a breakout of the top of the range of 1.50 and I was waiting for a retest of former resistance, now support. This happened in the London trading hours, and I think that it may be time to look for longs on new highs with a stop under 1.50 (big round number). Interested to hear your thoughts.

One other question if I may. Did that bearish action on the aususd knock you out of your position early or did you stick to the original game plan and stop loss and are still riding the wave of aussie strength?
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  • #1,378
  • May 6, 2009 1:42pm May 6, 2009 1:42pm
Looks like the aussie dollar is going from strength to strength with this bullish engulfing bar on the daily chart. A good idea to go long at the break of this daily bar that will close in 2.5 hours (on my chart)?
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  • #1,379
  • May 6, 2009 2:25pm May 6, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
CW, any interest in the gbpusd at the moment? The pair had a breakout of the top of the range of 1.50 and I was waiting for a retest of former resistance, now support. This happened in the London trading hours, and I think that it may be time to look for longs on new highs with a stop under 1.50 (big round number). Interested to hear your thoughts.

One other question if I may. Did that bearish action on the aususd knock you out of your position early or did you stick to the original game plan and stop loss and are still riding the wave of aussie...
i got whipped out of the AUD, it happens. As far as GBPUSD, I am not overly sold on it yet.....if you look back, this area isn't a super clear one, it's a bit choppy just above it. I'm not that impressed to be honest.

With the stress-test coming out tomorrow, and NFP on Friday, I am probably not going to enter into anything until next week. (we will see.....if I get a clear cut signal, then all bets are of.)

CW
  • #1,380
  • May 6, 2009 2:46pm May 6, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
Lagging indicators have no real use in my method. Of course, you could explain why 55 days average means anything? Why not 20 which is a trading month? Or 40 for 2? 233? Doesn't mean anything.
Fancy numbers.... I personally like the 666 EMA (Evil Moving Average)...

Just kidding guys...

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
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