Trader Girl Forex Trades

Amy thanks for your posts, they are helpful.

I feel much more confident about tomorrow's predictions than today's.

USD/CHF Buy 1.1500 to 1.1477 and 1.1450
USD/CAD Buy breakout of 1.2225 and buy 1.2100
GBP/USD Buy breakout of 1.4700 and lightly 1.4550
GBP/JPY Buy 139.40 and breakout of 142.00. Sell 143.35 to 143.50 and aggressively 144.80
NZD/USD Buy breakout of .5700 and sell breakdown of .5625
NZD/JPY Buy breakout of 55.00 and sell breakdown of 54.39 and lightly buy 53.43
USD/JPY Buy breakout of 97.00 and sell breakdown of 96.40
AUD/USD Sell breakdown of .7090 and sell .7236
CAD/JPY Sell breakdown of 79.00 and sell 80.19
AUD/JPY Sell breakdown of 68.50 and sell 70.00 to 70.30
EUR/USD Sell 1.3119 to 1.3155 and 1.3190 to 1.3200 and sell breakdown of 1.2991
EUR/JPY Sell breakdown of 125.67 and sell 127.43 lightly and 128.16 aggressively
EUR/GBP Sell breakdown of .8870 and sell .8969

Last night was very good, most of the predictions came true and there were some absolutely textbook perfect trades.

NZDJPY broke my 54.39 level and I shorted, had my target at last weeks low of 53.68 so go out too soon but made 59 pips.

NZDUSD also broke down and my trailing stop got me out a few hours later with 71 pips.

GBPUSD and GBPJPY both found support at/near my levels, I use trendline off the highs of down move to give exact entry. In GBPUSD I bought twice, made 15 pips on first move and 61 pips on second time getting out at hourly MA. The GBPJPY was much weaker so waited till 5:30am to get into it at my level and monthly pivot point, exited at previous weeks low resistance which also happened to be hourly MA for 106 pips.

I feel pretty good about tomorrow's predictions

Score Predict
EUR/CAD 0.56 0.65 Lightly buy 1.5950 and buy 1.5921 to 1.5900
EUR/JPY 0.55 0.7 Buy breakout of 126.90 and buy 125.67 to 125.50 and aggressively at 124.64
EUR/USD 0.54 0.6 Buy 1.3165 breakout and 1.3068 to 1.3042
EUR/GBP 0.54 0.55 Buy .8938 to .8925
GBP/CAD 0.53 0.55
USD/CAD 0.52 0.52 Buy breakout of 1.2221 and sell breakdown of 1.2175 also buy 1.2100 to 1.2078
GBP/JPY 0.52 0.6 Buy breakout of 142.00 and buy 139.78 to 139.40
USD/JPY 0.52 0.55 Buy breakout of 96.65 and sell breakdown of 96.00 and sell 97.75 and buy 95.00
AUD/JPY 0.51 0.45 Sell 70.00 to 70.07 and buy breakout of 68.50
GBP/USD 0.5 0.53 Buy breakout of 1.4680 and sell breakdown of 1.4600 and sell 1.4750 and buy 1.4441
CAD/JPY 0.50 0.45
AUD/USD 0.49 0.45 Sell .7142 to .7150 and sell breakdown of .7035
NZD/JPY 0.48 0.4 Lightly sell 54.65 and aggressively 55.28 and sell breakdown of 53.68
NZD/USD 0.46 0.4 Sell breakdown of .5570 and sell .5650
USD/CHF 0.45 0.4 Sell 1.1550 to 1.1560 and aggressively 1.1630, sell 1.1425 breakdown

I was asleep during my EURUSD 1.3165 breakout and didn't set an alert for that one but did take pullback trade for 63 pips on trendline break and out at prevous weeks high. I often set targets that are likely to get hit, the market will occassionally move past that point but if I'm busy doing other things set it and FORGET it.

Since the EUR was so strong and JPY weak I took this trade too. I missed what would have been an amazing 225 pip move, hope some of you caught it, but buying dips in STRONG uptrends is my primary trading method. I made 83 pips in this one.

Because the USDCAD just broke under last MONTHS low, a very weak sign I did take this trade last night, broke my 1.2175 level and I had exit set at previous weeks low, the thinner red line for a 94 pip gain. Trades I really believe in I set Stop Limit orders with profit targets and wide enough stops so that noise or a tiny pullback won't stop me out.

You can NOT BE GREEDY in this game, pick reasonable and LIKELY TO BE HIT targets and when they get hit and you make good pips be happy.

You have to train yourself to NOT CARE if market them oves 50 to 150 MORE pips!

I wasn't watching much the AUDJPY as I had thought the AUD wouldn't be strong today so TOOK NO TRADES in this. I should have and TG's Power Index showed it to be the strongest pair but last night decided to sleep in and most of my trades I set orders ahead of time so wasn't awake to SEE that this was best pair.

My 68.50 breakout level almost moved 200 pips though and this was one of the better trades today.

Tomorrow's Trading Plan

CAD/JPY Lightly buy 80.20 and aggressively 79.79 to 79.50
AUD/JPY Buy 69.65 to 69.50 and aggressively at 68.55
EUR/JPY Buy 127.50 to 127.25 and aggressively 126.72 to 126.58
GBP/JPY Buy 142.00 to 141.60 and 141.00
USD/JPY Buy 96.79 to 96.50 and breakout over 97.75 and sell possible breakdown 97.35
AUD/USD Buy .7150 to .7140
EUR/USD Lightly buy 1.3200 and aggressively 1.3167 to 1.3150 and buy breakout of 1.3300
USD/CHF Sell 1.1450 to 1.1509 and breakdown of 1.1350
GBP/USD Buy 1.4666 to 1.4625 and buy breakout of 1.4810
USD/CAD Sell 1.2125 to 1.2166 and aggressively 1.2290 to 1.2200 and breakdown of 1.2000
NZD/USD Sell .5700 to .5727 and breakdown of .5635

Amazing trading day today, many of my predictions came true and if you traded either the breakout/breakdowns or many of the buy/sell areas you would have also made a fortune today.

Shorted the USDCAD, bought the EURUSD at predicted buy level, bought the USDJPY breakout as predicted, and made a little shorting USDCHF breakdown.

Tomorrow's Predictions

USD/CHF Buy 1.1315 to 1.1288 and breakout of 1.1450
USD/JPY Sell 99.50 to 99.68 and buy 97.75 to 97.37
USD/CAD Buy 1.1868 up to 1.3111 and sell 1.2190 to 1.2221
CAD/JPY Buy 181.27 to 81.00 and buy 80.50
GBP/JPY Buy 143.50 to 143.35 and 143.00 and 142.00 Sell 147.29 to 147.60
EUR/JPY Buy128.64 to 127.83 and aggressively 127.00 sell 131.67
AUD/JPY Sell 73.00 and 73.50 and buy 69.00
NZD/JPY Selll 56.88 to 57.00 and short breakdown of 55.50
GBP/USD Lightly sell 1.4852 and 1.4900 to 1.4945 and breakdown of 1.4750
EUR/USD Sell 1.3300 to 1.3312 and aggressively 1.3350 to 1.3375, short breakdown of 1.3220
NZD/USD Sell .7330 to .7350 and breakdown of .7236
AUD/USD Sell .7330 to .7350 and breakdown of .7236

Amy you going to trade away with so many bank holidays tomorrow?

I am trying to speed up, ie reduce the time it takes me each night to do my analysis so took TopGun's scripting language and averaged the trends on various longer time frames and exported my calculated averages. I did the analysis my old fashioned way too and got pretty much similar results.

These are ranked in order of those with strongest CURRENT trends, it doesn't mean they won't change in real time. That has been the only fault with the way I was doing my analysis before and hope to incorporate my new multi time frame trend method in the real time automated systems. This will probably evolve and I'm likely to try to figure out a way of combining TopGun's FX Power Index readings and Multimap intensity ones into ONE number to make it easier to interpret in the VB system code I'm working on.

After each currency are 2 numbers, the first is the averaged % trends that support buying/selling. Over 50 is bullish and the more over the MORE bullish and under 50 is weak and the lower under 50 the weaker they are. The second number is the avg INTENSITY of the various time frame trends I'm using. 40 tends to be the highest trend and anything over +20 is of decent trend strength and below -20 is of good weakness with -40 the weakest most will ever see.

Here's how I plan to trade Monday.

Buys

GBPJPY 85 40 Very strong but may reverse. Short breakdown of 147.00 and buy 145.44 to 144.79 and aggressively 144.00
CADJPY 90 18 Very strong buy may reverse. Short 83.00 breakdown and buy 81.50 to 81.00
GBPUSD 82 19 Shows possible signs of reversal, if high can't be taken out sell breakdown of 1.4850 and buy 1.4925 breakout also buy 1.4700
AUDJPY 79 29 Sell breakdown of 72.00 and buy 70.61 to 70.50
NZDJPY 79 29 Sell breakdown of 56.29 and breakout of 56.75 and buy 55.55 to 55.40
AUDUSD 77 16 Sideways consolidation could mean big trend breakout. Buy breakout of .7320 and sell breakdown of .7275
NZDUSD 77 15 Buy .5600 and breakout of .5750 and buy .5575
EURJPY 54 11 Sell breakdown of 131.25 and buy 130.50 to 130.22 and sell 133.42 to 133.60
USDJPY 51 12 Sell 100.25 and buy 98.25 and sell breakdown of 99.00
EURUSD 54 -2 Sell 1.3350 and buy 1.3100 and sell 1.3250 breakdown

Sells
USDCHF 38 -13 Sell breakdown of 1.1340 and sell 1.1450
EURGBP 23 -17 Sell .8975 to .9000 and sell breakdown of .8880
USDCAD 13 -18 Sell breakdown of 1.1840 and sell 1.1225

Amytrade whats your judgement on some of these pairs that have the market come close, break through, and go the opposite direction? Id say its my own best judgment and moneymanagement, but would like some insight as to what you do on the trades you dont take and what the thought process is on the trades that are like nzd/usd, etc. sell @ 5700 (I put a vertical red line on the 30th of April as well as a down arrow on the price level to sell the breakdown at figure)

I have found that when the market breaks out over/under level and fails, doesn't go more than 10 to 15 pips for USD pairs or 20 to 25 pips for EURJPY or GBPJPY and other more volatile JPY crosses then if trend tools such as Multimap show the breakout was with low momentum you can look for counter trend trades once it goes back inside the previous range.

So false breakouts are in my opinion EXCELLENT clues to a possible reversal. Say the breakout failed and price pulls back inside the range, then IF the low of the swing that came back into the range gets broken thats an excellent point to then sell.

I always move my stops to breakeven on 10-12 pip move and most trades that are sub optimal tend to break even or have 2-3 pip win or up to 5 pip loss after spread.

I hope this answers your question.

I realize that I left one important rule out of my breakout levels. I most times wait for some sort of consolidation BEFORE breakout. In other words if my level gets broken but market fell 60 pips through it straight down I usually don't short it. But if market gradually comes down to my level, it acts as support but the market doesn't go UP, then if it breaks I'll sell it.

Here's excellent example in GBPUSD. If broke out and made new highs but then came down and held support at gray line (hourly moving avg) but on next move up it couldn't take out highs and the momentum was almost HALF of the last down swing! Then when it broke the hourly I'd go short.

Last night there were many strong trends and as you will see I pointed out very likely reversal today. Once it showed momentum loss on upside and it broke hourly MA you look for shorts. I did NOT take this trade but would have shorted 4:20am at 1.4920 and exited around 1.4880 as that would have been where my stop was. Because it already fell from 1.4960 before breaking the sell level 1.4850 I wouldn't have taken that trade.

Also note on chart the lower red containment band is OFTEN the lowest low of the move. It doesn't EVER pay unless -100 power index reading to short near or below that level.

Here's a trade I did take because it had far less strength than GBPUSD did and Power Index readings were weaker when I took this. Failed to make higher high and then broke hourly. I like to short at hourly if once broken market can't get back over it. Proves to me there's some selling pressure there and increases win % of this trade. Once it broke trendline I shorted. I exited once lower red containment band got hit and market started inchining higher. 42 pips.

I didn't really watch NZDUSD last night but here's a chart. I would have shorted at 6:50am EST and exited with small loss or breakeven or a few pip win and then once it broke back above hourly and then showed buying by not going below it again, ie hourly MA acted as support would have bought the trendline breakout around .5735.

Now keep in mind the FX Power Index isn't that strong on last move up so I probably in real time would NOT have been watching this one!

I use TG's Hotlist and have all my pairs on there and I sort by there PI15M field which shows me % of currencies on intermediate trend up/down. I focus on top 3 strongest and 3 weakest for real time trading. NZDUSD wouldn't have likely been on this list so again thats probably why I didn't watch NZDUSD much last night.

I'm attaching a screen shot to show exactly what I watch in real time.

Right now it shows the EURUSD is going up against 92% of other pairs on intermediate trend and 84% on short term trend. The 60MM, 180MM, ... 4320MM show the INTENSITY of trends on 60 min, 3 hour, half day, daily and 3 day trends. Anything over/under 20 is moderate intensity trend and 30 to 40 is intense trend that usually continues!

amytrade, pm me your name if you use any instant messaging

In my attempt to reduce the huge amount of time it takes each night for analysis I've decided to write a VB script in TopGun that takes their Power Index and Multimap multi time frame trends and exports one number.

Above 50 is bullish and anything over 75 is super bullish (buy).
Below 50 is bearish and anything under 25 is super bearish (sell).

I'm still going through each pair for how I'll trade it and to find the levels, but I've found converting the multimap to a number similar to power index levels and then averaging 3 longer time frame trends on both and averaging the resulting multimap avg and power index avg together gives me a nice multi trend tool multi time frame sorting of STRONGEST to weakest pairs! Plus it will save me 30 minutes of work per night.

I only use the rankings to decide HOW AGGRESSIVE to be in WHICH support/resistance levels to use.

For example a SUPER strong pair I will use a CLOSER support level to look for buys. If its NOT very strong I'll play it safe and use a much farther down support level to buy. Reverse for shorts. That's the only thing my trend identification allows me to do. Of course I'll always watch REAL TIME trends to decide the RISK of the trade and whether I'll take it or not.

AUD/USD 90 Buy .7285 to .7250 and .7415 breakout
CAD/JPY 86 Buy 83.10 to 82.77 and 84.58 breakout
AUD/JPY 86 Buy 72.00 and aggressively at 71.00
GBP/USD 76 Buy 1.4900 and aggressively 1.4861 to 1.4850 and at 1.4800
EUR/USD 74 Buy 1.3200 to 1.3190 and sell 1.3500 to 1.3536
GBP/JPY 72 Sell breakdown of 148.00 and buy 146.59 to 146.50 and 146.15 to 146.00
NZD/USD 72 Sell .5700 breakdown and sell 0.5870
EUR/JPY 71 Sell 133.50 and 132.20 breakdown. Buy 132.65 breakout
NZD/JPY 67 Buy 56.10 to 56.00 and sell breakdown of 56.60 and buy breakout of 57.37
EUR/GBP 48 Sell .8996 to .9000 and breakdown of .8900. Buy .8850 to .8823
USD/JPY 44 Sell breakdown of 98.75 and 100.00. Buy 98.17 to 98.00
USD/CHF 32 Sell breakdown of 1.1243 and sell 1.1429 to 1.1474
USD/CAD 11 Sell 1.1900 and 1.1931 to 1.1950 and 1.1983 to 1.2000 aggressively