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Picking daily direction?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 16, 2009 11:52pm Apr 16, 2009 11:52pm
Hey all,
I'm wondering if there is some resource on here about picking with a reasonable level of certainty the direction of the next day/bar?

what would give us an edge in this? Has any work been done?

thanks in advance
Stuart
  • #2
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:00pm Apr 30, 2009 4:00pm
I guess not eh? Well it was worth an ask of the BEST forex forum out there. Here's generally a place where I can tell it like it is.

So far i'm up 10% this month (demo) with a combo of james16 and gimmee bars all on daily. I couldn't't have done this without this forum.
  • #3
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:38pm Apr 30, 2009 5:38pm
The best method is, if the previous day is up then the odds are like 60% the next day will also be up.

If you pull back to a H1 chart, and add a 24SMA so thats a 1 day average, close above slightly improved chance of going higher and vice versa.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #4
  • May 1, 2009 2:18am May 1, 2009 2:18am
How about Pivot points ? I think you can use it

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History Level GBPUSD
  • #5
  • May 1, 2009 2:39am May 1, 2009 2:39am
Pivot points don't perform better than randomly picked points, although randomly picked points perform better than no points so so do pivots and you'll have more faith in them unless you know this ofcourse
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #6
  • May 1, 2009 2:44am May 1, 2009 2:44am
Quoting stubish
Hey all,
I'm wondering if there is some resource on here about picking with a reasonable level of certainty the direction of the next day/bar?

what would give us an edge in this? Has any work been done?

thanks in advance
Stuart

I have excellent results using VSA on d1 to determine direct for the following day (on very clear vsa signals anyway)
The trend always ends.
  • #7
  • May 3, 2009 7:01am May 3, 2009 7:01am
Quoting stubish
Hey all,
I'm wondering if there is some resource on here about picking with a reasonable level of certainty the direction of the next day/bar?

what would give us an edge in this? Has any work been done?

thanks in advance
Stuart
if u only interested on the next 1 bar only, maybe u can try candlestick.
  • #8
  • May 3, 2009 10:22am May 3, 2009 10:22am
Quoting stubish
Hey all,
I'm wondering if there is some resource on here about picking with a reasonable level of certainty the direction of the next day/bar?

what would give us an edge in this? Has any work been done?

thanks in advance
Stuart
Yes, plenty of work has been done on this. Millions of people all over the world have asked the same question, including myself.

I've only seen one person with a wierd system that tracked the 'Point' indicator that made any sense to me. This person used 8 hr bars, but it can be applied to 4 hr bars. It also depends on your broker time, not all daily bars will look the same, but tracking 4 hrs gives you a chance to catch an intra-day reversal. If your interested i'll brush up on it (been about 2+ years since I messed with it).

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #9
  • May 3, 2009 5:03pm May 3, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting Turveyd
The best method is, if the previous day is up then the odds are like 60% the next day will also be up.

If you pull back to a H1 chart, and add a 24SMA so thats a 1 day average, close above slightly improved chance of going higher and vice versa.
I'd be interested in seeing the data that says 60% chance that the next bar is the same direction as the last.

I looked at this using 21 pairs and all the daily data I could download (2 to 10 years). It's a coin flip if the next day is the same direction or a reverse, with a slight edge that price will revert.

Dan
.
  • #10
  • Last Post: May 4, 2009 4:44am May 4, 2009 4:44am
Quoting redpine
I'd be interested in seeing the data that says 60% chance that the next bar is the same direction as the last.

I looked at this using 21 pairs and all the daily data I could download (2 to 10 years). It's a coin flip if the next day is the same direction or a reverse, with a slight edge that price will revert.

Dan
Sorry only had a small sample, I must of picked a trendy period.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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