I hate the USD, and it hates me. | Forex Factory

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I hate the USD, and it hates me.

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 12, 2007 8:35pm Apr 12, 2007 8:35pm
Just venting a bit, as I had several losing trades on the USD... it's down all over the place, and it seems it hates me enough to jump out of a perfectly nice trend to screw me over. :-/
  • #2
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:43pm Apr 12, 2007 8:43pm
well if you're trading the pound I'm pretty sure the trend is up. And I severely doubt its going down in the next 18 hours.
  • #3
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:46pm Apr 12, 2007 8:46pm
This goes for NZD, AUD and Euro as well. The dollar is getting hammered pretty good across the board.
  • #4
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:48pm Apr 12, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting JoshDance
Just venting a bit, as I had several losing trades on the USD... it's down all over the place, and it seems it hates me enough to jump out of a perfectly nice trend to screw me over. :-/
forget about it man......money is not worth crying over......stick to res/sup levels to make up for it, the trend is not always yer friend)
  • #5
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:56pm Apr 12, 2007 8:56pm
Quoting aicccia
well if you're trading the pound I'm pretty sure the trend is up. And I severely doubt its going down in the next 18 hours.
I only trade the pound, i think she is going to stop very very soon sir....just hit trend line 1.9820, whoops, she just turned at 1.9836. Will know better after london session, but i feel gbp/usd max high will be 1.9900. What is your focus, i really really forget what a losing trade feels like happy to say
  • #6
  • Apr 12, 2007 9:05pm Apr 12, 2007 9:05pm
with a poor trade deficit coming up later. look for cable to hit at least 1.9880~1.9920
I'm just moving clouds today - tomorrow I'll try mountains.
  • #7
  • Apr 12, 2007 9:27pm Apr 12, 2007 9:27pm
Quoting awsl
with a poor trade deficit coming up later. look for cable to hit at least 1.9880~1.9920
Hi awsl,
I am not implying that you are wrong here, but how do you know that? I know it is the logical outcome, but the experience I have had ... always be prudent.
  • #8
  • Apr 12, 2007 9:38pm Apr 12, 2007 9:38pm
looking ahead at the list of Market Moving Events coming up, most of the consensus are dollar negative, the target as always is just a speculation.

EUR Industrial Production m/m

USD PPI m/m

USD Core PPI m/m

USD Trade Balance

CAD Trade Balance

USD Consumer Sentiment (p)
I'm just moving clouds today - tomorrow I'll try mountains.
  • #9
  • Apr 12, 2007 11:57pm Apr 12, 2007 11:57pm
Well, I've decided to trade more with the trend than try to get on short-term waves (half of you are saying "duh, you idiot" right now, I realize that). Daily charts I believe.
  • #10
  • Apr 13, 2007 6:22pm Apr 13, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting JoshDance
Just venting a bit, as I had several losing trades on the USD... it's down all over the place, and it seems it hates me enough to jump out of a perfectly nice trend to screw me over. :-/
USD in going down since Jan 2006. Headed for intensive care this week. And it can get worse.
  • #11
  • Apr 13, 2007 7:24pm Apr 13, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting JoshDance
Well, I've decided to trade more with the trend than try to get on short-term waves (half of you are saying "duh, you idiot" right now, I realize that). Daily charts I believe.

So basically you want to make money 20% of the time instead of 80%? The trend only happens 20% of the time and if you had bought January 2006, yes you would be up quite a bit, but how would you know when the trend ends?
  • #12
  • Apr 13, 2007 7:30pm Apr 13, 2007 7:30pm
Trends are where the big money is made, not in the chop and slop.
  • #13
  • Apr 13, 2007 7:51pm Apr 13, 2007 7:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
Trends are where the big money is made, not in the chop and slop.
While I agree wholeheartedly, it is impossible to identify when a good trend will start and when it will end. Impossible. From my experience and on talking on the majors only, I see big moves only happening a few times a year. The crosses behave differently.
  • #14
  • Apr 13, 2007 7:55pm Apr 13, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting ra300z
So basically you want to make money 20% of the time instead of 80%? The trend only happens 20% of the time and if you had bought January 2006, yes you would be up quite a bit, but how would you know when the trend ends?
Ok, let's go Paretto, then.

80% of time ranging -> 20% of the money - 80% of the risk
20% of the time trending -> 80% of the money - 20% of the risk

Trading the ranging you will spend 80% of your time trying to catch 20% of the money with higher risk.

Trading the trend you spend 20% of the time to catch 80% of the money with lower risk.

Take GJ or any */USD this week. Big moves during a brief period of the Asian session gave the majority of the profits, tiny SL.

The rest of the time (the 80% choppy) was to build new positions - not to trade for 7 pips out of 5min chart overbought/oversold.

It's not about how much time you spend on the charts. It's about how much money you make.
  • #15
  • Apr 14, 2007 6:54am Apr 14, 2007 6:54am
Quoting forexboomer
forget about it man......money is not worth crying over......stick to res/sup levels to make up for it, the trend is not always yer friend)
The trend is always your friend, however, the trend is a wild animal, if you don't know how to tame it and ride it correctly, you will end up thrown away from the back of the trend while it moves...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #16
  • Last Post: Apr 14, 2007 8:25am Apr 14, 2007 8:25am
Quoting cesarnc
Take GJ or any */USD this week. Big moves during a brief period of the Asian session gave the majority of the profits, tiny SL.

While that may be true, this kind of week is far from the norm. We're above resistance levels for */USD so unless a test of this high fails, we're blasting off like a rocket. How long will that last? Nobody knows.

Take a look at EURUSD 2005 September. A solid and decent breakout above the previous high (about 150-180 pips higher). Was it a trend? I would say yes. Would it have made me money? With proper money management, yes. But 80% of the gain? Hardly.

Not that I'm arguing one way or another. I think you need to have adaptive strategies depending on market direction.
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