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If you love the EUR/JPY and you know it... clap your hands!

  • #181
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:01am Apr 29, 2009 11:01am
Quoting karun
This has already run up so much for today, how much more will it go?
I would hope not much. But hope is futile.

JC
  • #182
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:04am Apr 29, 2009 11:04am
"V" formation anyone? It seems likely a reversal will come sooner rather than later. It's noon (lunchtime) in NY now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_jpy.PNG Size: 39 KB
  • #183
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:09am Apr 29, 2009 11:09am
Well, trying to get more information... take a look at this big picture, and let me know what do you think..

EUR/JPY - Daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #184
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:14am Apr 29, 2009 11:14am
EJ says....

"Resistance is futile, hell, so is support for that matter."
  • #185
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:16am Apr 29, 2009 11:16am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Predicting is a bit of a semantic problem - for me at least.

Predicting implies trying to, well, predict what the market will do.

This is what every trader does - succesfully or not.


For me, the difference in this 'prediction' that a successful trader employs is knowing (as well as one can) that ones prediction has, over time, a demonstrable statistical edge. Being able to quantify why one is taking a particular position.

But yeah, getting factors in ones favour is the key.

I only take trades with the trend.
I only take intra-day trades during liquid hours.
Etc...


Magnus
  • #186
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:22am Apr 29, 2009 11:22am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting opie999
"V" formation anyone? It seems likely a reversal will come sooner rather than later. It's noon (lunchtime) in NY now.

It's quite an impressive 'v' right enough.

Been a slow, steady drive downwards and then a slow, steady drive upwards - interesting.

So many factors for it to go either way... I just like to wait around until it tells me where it's going...


Magnus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-29_eurjpy_15.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #187
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:24am Apr 29, 2009 11:24am
Quoting Yani
Well, trying to get more information... take a look at this big picture, and let me know what do you think..

EUR/JPY - Daily.
Attachment
I've been watching that bar all day and saying it doesn't look good for my short made early this morning (once again I entered without confirmation). However, I'll let my stop do it's work.

Trends (from 6 April) are often broken like this and resume thereafter for whatever reason. But my stop is still above 129.30 so this reasoning doesn't cloud my judgement. The longer this lingers outside the UTL the more likely it's a reasonable break/consolidation.

JC
  • #188
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:26am Apr 29, 2009 11:26am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Yani
Well, trying to get more information... take a look at this big picture, and let me know what do you think..

Yani, a good thing I heard a while ago, and use every day, is that if you are unsure on a chart then step-up to the next TF.


Magnus
  • #189
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:30am Apr 29, 2009 11:30am
If it breaks 129.50 convincingly, then I guess we will go more upwards, else a U turn back in to the 4hr down trend channel... thats what I'am thinking.....
  • #190
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:36am Apr 29, 2009 11:36am
Quoting Yuppie
I only take trades with the trend.
Magnus
This is the habit I am trying to get into, but habits are hard to break. I will get there.

JC
  • #191
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:55am Apr 29, 2009 11:55am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Waka
This is the habit I am trying to get into, but habits are hard to break. I will get there.

JC

It's the bargain-hunting mentality.

I'm as guilty as anyone for it. In life, I'm reluctant to pay full price for anything - a born haggler.

This trait is handy for life, but devastating in trading - as with so many other traits.


Magnus
  • #192
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:59am Apr 29, 2009 11:59am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Very nice breakout.

With trend...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-29_eurjpy_16.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #193
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:01pm Apr 29, 2009 12:01pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Neutral bar - indecision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-29_eurjpy_17.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #194
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:02pm Apr 29, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting Yuppie
It's the bargain-hunting mentality.

I'm as guilty as anyone for it. In life, I'm reluctant to pay full price for anything - a born haggler.

This trait is handy for life, but devastating in trading - as with so many other traits.


Magnus
Excelent analogy, it's so true.

JC
  • #195
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:26pm Apr 29, 2009 12:26pm
Well, I don't know where the next movement is.. but I still looking on higher TF to have some ideas...

I've posted my analyses for the Daily, and there is for the H4.
I guess the most important is to have different analysis and points of view, and try to figure it out together... so what do you think about it?

EUR/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #196
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:24pm Apr 29, 2009 1:24pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Yani
Well, I don't know where the next movement is.. but I still looking on higher TF to have some ideas...

I've posted my analyses for the Daily, and there is for the H4.
I guess the most important is to have different analysis and points of view, and try to figure it out together... so what do you think about it?

EUR/JPY H4

It always interests me how people trade so differently.

I see your chart, and your target, but my thinking is quite different.

The kind of thing I would be looking for on the TF you posted would be something similar to the chart below.

I have a number of fairly specific criteria for entering such a trade... but then... it's the exit that is critical.


Magnus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-29_eurjpy_20.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #197
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:28pm Apr 29, 2009 1:28pm
up at 130. Reverse damn you EJ. EU is going down - play ball!
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #198
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:31pm Apr 29, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting cgldsmth
up at 130. Reverse damn you EJ. EU is going down - play ball!
And news did help it to go to 130 fast....
  • #199
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:59pm Apr 29, 2009 1:59pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Right, showing my ignorance here, I know that there was some FOMC news out at 19:15GMT - but that's all I know.

Here's what E/J and it's siblings did at 19:15GMT.

From all I have learned so far in trading (and from my own experience) I can pretty much just ignore news. I am interested in how the tri-head of E/U/J correlate though.


Magnus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-29_eurjpy_21.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #200
  • Apr 29, 2009 2:45pm Apr 29, 2009 2:45pm
I am short on this pair from 129.50
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