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My "Holy S**t Moment"

  • #21
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:00am Apr 11, 2007 12:00am
Quoting Dopey
My son is only 2. Whenever I hand him a printout of a chart, he eats it. I can't wait until he's five.
were not supposed to eat our charts?
  • #22
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:09am Apr 11, 2007 12:09am
Open up your EURUSD daily charts. It's been bullish since March 2006.
See how it looks like.
  • #23
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:14am Apr 11, 2007 12:14am
Quoting dunningduke
Or better yet, do what Mr. Jacko says and get yourself a five year old assistant, who will do the trend reading on the chart for you.
your avatar is nice. bull run!!!
  • #24
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:40am Apr 11, 2007 12:40am
Dopey,
I Have 2 Broken Ribs From Horseplaying, And Your Post Just Made Me Laugh So Hard That Is Hurts. No More Jokes, Cause I Can't Take This Pain. Anyway, Follow The Trend On Your Preferred Timeframe. Use Larger Stops And Tp's With Less Position As The Timeframes Increase. Also, Look For A Positve Swap Pair With The Trend.
  • #25
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:51pm Apr 11, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting twoblink
Hate to be the vinegar, but when you define what the "trend" is, please let me know..

because it seems so simple in concept, but it's not..
A trend is just a trend. It's the direction of prices over a certain period of time. You can easily identify one. If you can connect 2 or more bottoms with a straight line, then you have an uptrend. It is a baby uptrend if you connect 2 bottoms only where the first is a major bottom or a many years low. If you can connect 3 or 4 bottoms, then you have an middle aged trend, probably in the mid 20s to the early 30s. If you can connect more than 4 bottoms, then you must be dealing with an aging trend in the late 40s.

Don't believe people or books telling you that the more prices touch a trendline, the more it gets stronger. This is nonsense. The more prices touch the trendline means that the trend is getting older and its' death moment is nearing. A baby trend has the highest chance to grow up and develop into a middle aged one and continue the normal life cycle. However, many babies die young. This is because the defense system in the body of a baby is weak. So a small infection or virus can easily kill this baby. The same goes with trends, they are usually weak after their birth. A baby uptrend is prone to attract hundreds of sellers to kill it before it even thinks of crying or taking defense. Those baby trends who successfully survive the hardest part find it very easy to continue going on.

It takes low risk to bet on a baby just after his birth and it takes moderate risk to bet on a middle aged man and the risk increases dramatically when betting on a late 40s guy. So everyone has to decide based on his/her own risk preferences.

Anyone got what a trend really is? It's a way of living.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #26
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:57pm Apr 11, 2007 4:57pm
Quoting wshhmm
your avatar is nice. bull run!!!
Thanks,
I found it online. The big bulls running in the middle of the streets will not take any prisonners...It reminds me to be careful.
  • #27
  • Apr 11, 2007 5:09pm Apr 11, 2007 5:09pm
My conclusion too. Although it's incredible the amount of info (in books or not) that says otherwise!

Quoting narafa
Don't believe people or books telling you that the more prices touch a trendline, the more it gets stronger. This is nonsense. The more prices touch the trendline means that the trend is getting older and its' death moment is nearing.
-soso
  • #28
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:16am Apr 12, 2007 2:16am
Quoting soso_beton
My conclusion too. Although it's incredible the amount of info (in books or not) that says otherwise!
When it comes to trading real money in a market where probabilities play a large role in, I assume that what makes sense is much better than what is written in hundreds of books.

Every single TA book I have read says this sentence, the more touches to a trendline, the stronger it becomes. The only contradictory opinion against this which I ever read was in the Dow theory, which states clearly that a trend at the very beginning has the highest odds of continuing further its' way and as the trend goes on, the probabilities keep decreasing and decreasing until the trend dies and reverses. Since trends don't continue forever in the same direction, which is a proven fact of the markets, actually one of the fewest facts, then what is being said in books must be nonsense or overly taken.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #29
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:11am Apr 12, 2007 3:11am
Quoting mbqb11
were not supposed to eat our charts?
Now THAT was funny! lol.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #30
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:24am Apr 12, 2007 3:24am
Love your post dopey.

If 50, 100 and 200 ema's are stacked in that order i.e. 50 at the top in an uptrend I ask the cat if we are in an uptrend. If the cat ignores me and carries on sleeping then we are indeed in an up trend so buy the dips.

Same applies in downtrend if 50 ema is at the bottom.

I favour 4 hrs, 1 hr and 30 mins looking for the main trend on the 4 hr. If you have been fortunate to start buying the trend early that last trade when the market turns and you get stopped out should not be the worst thing to happen in your life.
  • #31
  • Edited 4:32am Apr 12, 2007 3:40am | Edited 4:32am
Try finding "the trend" with a broader view. Economic indicators also "trend". Market sentiment also "trend".

Check Dollar across the board in larger timeframes and you will see!!! SIngle pair's M15 candle doesn't tell you

Check Yen across the board, too.

Fundamentals behind those currencies are trending accordingly. As well as GBP EUR fundamentals are up trending, clearly.

I'm always, always dollar short and yen short. So

GU EU moving downwards is against the USD short trend. Scalp for small pips during the move and find prices to start building long inventories. The "trend" will come.

Carry trades are in a crystal clear uptrend. Do the same...

If you stay in the sidelines during a counter-trend move, you ARE TRADING THE TREND.

So, when moves against it come, I set FIBO retracements because thats what these moves are: profit taking, retracements, not TREND REVERSALS .

OPEN YOUR MIND. Stop with the tech jerking. Watch what's going on.... Check gold, Oil, Treasure, Stock market. Go after market commentaries. Understand how market reacts during geopolitical crisis...WORK...!!!

When I got started in forex I also thought: I'm not going to study all this economic B.S. All I need is a couple of indicators... Almost burned my account, too.

Big money moves by the "economic B.S" not by Slow Stochastics. We are only start making money here when we start thinking like the big players think. Lazyness, greed and The Search for the Holy Grail COST. And the market sends the bill.
  • #32
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:41am Apr 14, 2007 9:41am
Quoting turk87
Okay there could be completely different trends if you look at the

1hr
4hr
1day
1week

charts on a pair.

So which one do you use to find the trend?
Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend".

They are the "sucker" rallies and declines.

PS Don't be the sucker...

.
  • #33
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:56am Apr 14, 2007 9:56am
It is valuable to look at the chart that Newbietrader101 posted some time ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...805#post254805

It has continued to trend upwards.....

Haleluhia

.
  • #34
  • Apr 19, 2007 11:34am Apr 19, 2007 11:34am
Quoting jacko
It is valuable to look at the chart that Newbietrader101 posted some time ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...805#post254805

It has continued to trend upwards.....

Haleluhia

.

And the upward trend continues.........

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
  • #35
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:05am Apr 25, 2007 1:05am
a interest rate difference is a trend , thou small and unnoticed.

see if you borrow and get pay interest rate, now by this alone, a piece of the money , move to the higher side. (if by volume buy= sell)?
  • #36
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:56am Apr 25, 2007 10:56am
Quoting jacko
Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend".

They are the "sucker" rallies and declines.

PS Don't be the sucker...

.
Personally, I have something I call the "25 rule": if your chart's setting causes more than approximately 25 bars (+/- 2) in a trading day, the data will be too noisy.

So for FOREX, anything smaller than a 1 hr timeframe is noisy because it will make more than 24 bars per trading day. For US stocks, anything smaller than a 15 min timeframe is noisy because it will make more than 26-27 bars per trading day.
  • #37
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:56am Apr 26, 2007 7:56am
I do agree that shorter time frames (lower than the Hourly chart) are less significant in the Forex than other financial assets.
  • #38
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:18am Apr 26, 2007 8:18am
Trends is a trend, price moving one way, more or less. Uptrend, downtrend, sideways trend whatever.
Where you look to find those trends is a different matter. I'm day trading and look for trends on a 15m chart. There was a great trend on GBP/USD today, only a blind man could miss that. Yesterday EUR/CAD was trending great also. Take a look if you still don't know what a trend looks like.
Finding a trend is easy, trading the trend is not. It takes time and experience to master it, if you can ever really master it, otherwise, it takes time to make money trend trading. You have to time your entries well. for example, keeping S/L tight is always a good idea, you enter the trend late, you will only loose 10-15 pips (15m tf, gbp/usd), however, if you enter at a bottom of a bar, then price retraces slightly, you might get taken out, only later to see the trend continue. Timing entries is very important, and that also comes with experience. Another big problem is exits. If the trend is running like a mad man, it's not so difficult, as long as you don't expect it to go on forver. However, if trend is slow, if there are whipsaws, exits become increasingly difficult. Practice does help though, practice in being flexible...

Best regards,

Vlad Zapletin
  • #39
  • Jun 23, 2007 10:45am Jun 23, 2007 10:45am
Quoting Dopey
My son is only 2. Whenever I hand him a printout of a chart, he eats it. I can't wait until he's five.
Oh my GOD Dopey, mine turned 2 in April, that's SO TRUE! He is in what I like to call the "Puppy Phase".

I am sure Dopey will back me up on this.....but for those of you don't have kids, here's a quick little story:

My son likes to play with Daddy's computer. It makes neat little sounds and visuals. He really likes to play with something called "charting programs".

One day, he got a little more competent in his computer skills. He learned but right-clicking the mouse, he could place an order. So he did.

He decided to buy the AUD/USD pair. My son seems to know a lot about the Aussie economy, he in fact, has done this 3 times.

The irony of all of this: He is up 14 pips. He would be up more if Daddy didn't see what he did, and freak out, only to close the trade. (had no idea where it's going.)

So being a father, this is what you will have to look forward to. A 2 year -old out smarting you in a very intense complicated world. And to think I spent all this time trying to learn. The real lesson could be let him trade for me?
  • #40
  • Jun 23, 2007 11:08am Jun 23, 2007 11:08am
Quoting clockwork71
So being a father, this is what you will have to look forward to. A 2 year -old out smarting you in a very intense complicated world. And to think I spent all this time trying to learn. The real lesson could be let him trade for me?
Back when my son was around 5, we were on the ferry from Nova Scotia to Maine...I gave him 5$ so he could go buy pop or candy or anythig else he might like; he saw the slot machines and wanted to play those instead.

OK, good time to let the kid learn about the dangers of gambling - he'll lose it all, won't have any money left = no pop, no candy.....

Well, big mistake. A couple of pulls, and he won a fair amount of money. Funny thing, after doing that he got bored, and stopped....

Later on, we went up to the lounge, where they had that ship-board horse racing, where you have four "horses" on a board in the middle of the lounge, arranged on a short track; at each turn the MC pulls a number out of a hat, and the horse with that number moves to the next square. The first to the end of the track wins.

Well, he wanted to bet on that; when I suggested he should at least not bet *all* his money, he decided to put half of his money on one horse, and half on another, and I could have the winnings from the second horse.

Well, his horse came in first, and mine came in second; I got repaid my original 5$ plus some winnings, and he got off the boat with what for him was a bundle.

I don't know who really learned anything though...& I won't go into the details when I tried to teach him the dangers of gambling via blackjack, except that even playing the dealer, being able to count cards, and using only 2 decks, I lost my entire jar of pennies very quickly....
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