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  • #3,261
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:57pm Apr 11, 2007 11:57pm
Well, I just hope he'll be back and up on the rage again after the ban is over. Might as well create a new journal too, since this one has been flooded with all these unrelated talks.
Tra-X
  • #3,262
  • Apr 12, 2007 12:08am Apr 12, 2007 12:08am
I know diddley squat about EW but have really enjoyed this thread. When itme's calls were confirmed by my own style of trading I was, putting it mildly, very happy to take the trade. For me it was great to have an informed opinion based on a completely different way of trading often coming to similar conclusions. It was also great when he gave calls on currencies I normally wouldn't even look at.

Last month he said that he was looking to take the step from trading experiment to trading system. That's something I would really like to see, so itme I and lots of others would love to see you back as soon as possible.

Best wishes.
  • #3,263
  • Apr 12, 2007 1:46am Apr 12, 2007 1:46am
In recent times lot of new rules came up which makes honest, open discussion real hard .. I dont visit this place as much as I used to before but I see a lot of hidden agendas behind modding and even publications posted on front page of FF.. its sad.. well I guess I wont get banned for posting this too?

Quoting Northpro
Merlin,
I seem as confused as the others as to where and what you find so offensive in terms of spreading his political agenda. IMO what is "bullshit" is that someone can't express their right to freedom of speech, regardless of the site, as long as it isn't directly harming anyone, what's wrong with expressing oneself, if someone does not agree, state it so or just don't look at this thread. Unless I am reading something wrong here, I think your moderating muscle has discredited this forum and hurt the traders here as a whole rather than improved the forum. Itme is without a doubt, one of the most valuable contributors to this forum for both newbies and longer term members, his input during suspension will be sorely missed, and I for one hope he does return, for the benefit of this venue.

Please shed some light on to what it is that you find so offensive, so in the future, we all have some idea as to what our limitations are towards freedom of speech within the FF.

Regards,
Northpro

+1
  • #3,264
  • Apr 25, 2007 2:10am Apr 25, 2007 2:10am
Merlin

Is this the end of this thread?
  • #3,265
  • Apr 25, 2007 2:56am Apr 25, 2007 2:56am
It looks like it is the end of this thread, as I understand it itme has moved on. I wish him well.
  • #3,266
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:04am Apr 25, 2007 4:04am
Using the word "murdering" just isn't neutral.
And I don't mean this in a word police sort of sense.
Maybe "killing" would have been more appropiate(less planned, malicious and intentful).
Not that there's a really appropiate way of phrasing things regarding war - people dying is never cool...

It's like this - here you are, trying to run a forum where people can discuss and exchange opinions. This ideally is based upon reason and logic.
Emotion can of course slip in. There's a breaking point at which the mix can tilt over into flaming, bashing and namecalling and at that point things go out of line and your forum clogs up with hate.
An inflammatory choice of words is one of the seeds that can cause these ugly things to sprout.
IMHO I wouldn't put it towards whose country who insulted - lord knows as a German I've had my share of being called a Nazi simply out of reflex by random people in America. But I know people are ignorant everywhere, not only in one place
America has pigheaded people, Germany has pigheaded people, every place has them. That's because people are and always will be people.
I also know that there are good people everywhere. One rarely gets asked where one wants to be born beforehand and most folks don't change nationality that easy just because some other folks who are also born on your few thousand square klicks don't know how to behave.

Generalized judgements of "America" and "Americans" will not fit nor will "Iran". Both have intellectual elites that are totally opposed to what might be public perception and then the pigheads as well. Don't always throw everyone in the same pot with generalizations.
Heading too far off on a tangent now.

Anway - you're trying to run a forum, maintain peace and trying not to have things run a few miles off topic or go into a flame war that has more to do with a choice of words than a sound argument.

There are certain words/ways to put things that send off red alerts and I believe that is what happened.
As Merlin said, it was the last post and until that last post I had also wondered what was so terrible about quoting - admittedly totally propagandistic and slanderous, let's be honest here - some second rate external sources.
Surprised me a bit, I've usually found Itme to be more on the harmonic side.
Seems odd to me that he'd even be susceptible to some of those articles.

Anyhow.
Just trying to put myself into a moderator's place here.

I can understand both sides. Sometimes you can get carried away with what you say or write, it's happened to me before, too. Thank god for that edit button! (I usually realize what I've writtin within 24 hours)

I, too, would like to see Itme come back and continue his thread which has a LOT of effort put into it and would be a real shame to be discontinued =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,267
  • Edited 5:15am Apr 25, 2007 4:15am | Edited 5:15am
Hi Vantage, yes, as you already know I'm checking out other forums where I can be free to believe in economic reality, law and order, truth and freedom, without being falsely accused of hatred, breaking rules and impersonating myself. There are so many other communities, though none other is exactly like this one. Each has its own charm and advantages. I'm still working on my trading system, and the change of scenery and less hustle and bustle has been very conducive to quiet reflection. I hope to give my shiny new system a little run either on this thread or a new thread in the journal section. I already did one trade last week which was perfect, and am waiting for another perfect entry opportunity. I only need about one trade per week to meet my personal goals if I can meet my performance objectives. I like watching and analysing, patiently waiting for the perfect moment to act. I wish everyone peace, health and prosperity - including all Americans.

p.s. - my last "horrible" , "inflammatory" post merely stated that if the US government decides to drop 450 nuclear bombs on Iran, that might adversely impact the value of the USD. Everything else people read into it is their own libelous imagination and projection. And I would never think to generalize about all 300 million Americans. I know and love hundreds of them and respect all but the dangerously sociopathic ones. My "second rate external sources" -Dick Cheney's financial disclosure form, Reuter's, and Craig Murray (commenting on the international Iraq / Iran marine border dispute) - former Head of UK's Maritime Section of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Bibliography:
Craig Murray was born in West Runton in October 1958 and educated at Sheringham Primary and Paston Grammar schools. He graduated from the University of Dundee in 1982 with a MA (Hons) 1st Class in Modern History. From 1982 to 1984 he was President of Dundee University Students Association and he was a member of Dundee's tournament winning Granada TV University Challenge team in 1983.
Professional Biography:
In 1984 he joined the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. As a member of the Diplomatic Service his responsibilities included the following:
1986-9 Second Secretary, Commercial, British High Commission, Lagos
Responsible for promoting British exports to, and business interests in, Nigeria.
1989-92 Head of Maritime Section, FCO, London
Responsible for negotiation of the UK and Dependent Territory continental shelf and fisheries boundaries, for implementation of the Channel Tunnel treaty and for negotiations on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. From August 1990 to August 1991 he was also head of the FCO Section of the Embargo Surveillance Centre, responsible for intelligence analysis on Iraqi attempts at evading sanctions, particularly in the field of weapons procurement, and with providing information to UK military forces and to other governments to effect physical enforcement of the embargo.
1992-4 Head of Cyprus Section, FCO London
Responsible for UN negotiations on the Cyprus dispute, relations with the government of Cyprus and for the mandate and requirements of the British contingent of the UN force in Cyprus,
1994-7 First Secretary (Political and Economic), British Embassy, Warsaw
Head of the Political and Economic sections of our Embassy in Poland. Responsible for relations with Poland, and assisting Poland's post-communist transition process with reference to preparation for EU membership.
1997-8 Deputy Head, Africa Department (Equatorial), Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Responsible for British political and commercial relationships with West Africa, including development issues.
1998-2002 Deputy High Commissioner, British High Commission, West Africa Branch
Responsible for British economic, political, commercial and aid relationships with Ghana and Togo. In Autumn 1998 Craig Murray was the UK Representative at the Sierra Leone Peace talks held in Togo, Liberia and Sierra Leone, including direct negotiation with the RUF terrorist leadership.
2002-2004 British Ambassador, Uzbekistan
Responsible for our relationship with Uzbekistan. He found Western support for the dictatorial Karimov regime unconscionable, as detailed in the rest of this website.
At the 2005 UK General Election, Craig Murray takes on Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in Blackburn as an Independent candidate, winning 2,082 votes.
  • #3,268
  • Apr 25, 2007 5:17am Apr 25, 2007 5:17am
Good to see you back Itme, and just as contentious as ever!
  • #3,269
  • Apr 25, 2007 5:34am Apr 25, 2007 5:34am
Quoting itme
My "second rate external sources"
I was more referring to miss "Eatser" surprise / new 9-11 Heather Wokusch.

Who, by having 4 cats and a psychology MA, thinks she qualifies as political advisor and modern day Kassandra, but fails to spell "easter" properly in her own publication
I'm sorry, I'm just being mean there

Bio:
"A native Californian, Heather Wokusch has traveled to over 30 countries and lived in eight. Her political awakening came in 1986 when she spent a year doing development work in the Philippines and witnessed the People Power Revolution firsthand. Heather's a former jazz singer, has an MA in clinical psychology and more than 20 years of experience in education. She currently works as a journalist, educator and cross-cultural trainer, sharing her life with husband Norbert and their four cats."

Taken from her homepage http://www.heatherwokusch.com/.

She went a bit over the top with stuff like "marching us into Armageddon" and simply saying "Russian intelligence, noting the US military buildup along the Iran-Iraq border, suggests that Iran will be attacked within the first two weeks of April." without giving me a reason to believe where she got that piece of information for my tastes.
Properly researched and reported journalism is fine, sensationalism isn't. It's now the last week in April and there still haven't been bombs or the scheduled Armageddon - oddly enough, I don't assume it was her article calling peace activists to "arms" calling their senators.

Although they should, and more often. There's still quite a lot of things going amiss.

As for the other stuff, dailyfx quotes and the long term USD charts, that's all fine by me, I just don't like folks who go a bit overboard in their tone when trying to "report" something. Journalism is about well researched facts and reflection, not spreading panic (that's a criticism that applies towards Fox News and others as well hehehe)

--

Good to see you're still around Itme and glad to hear that your new approach is working out =)
Like you wrote yourself - all it takes is one good trade with good execution and you're well underway!

Would be great to see you continue here

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,270
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:01am Apr 25, 2007 7:01am
WELCOME BACK ITME
  • #3,271
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:50pm Apr 25, 2007 10:50pm
Itme,

If you still around, I just wanted to tell you that you have nothing but admiration and respect from me. I feel that what has happened to you these last few months is extremely unfair and unreasonable. Your contributions to this forum are beyond words.

I admire you not only for being a person of great wisdom and genius, but also for having the guts to speak out against censorship and loss of freedom. It is not easy to do this, but it is necessary for continual growth and improvement. Because without self examination one stagnates. In order for a forum to flourish it is necessary to question where we are going, if for no other reason to find out that you are going the right direction. When we stop questioning things we lose our awareness and we become lemmings.

If people become afraid of speaking out due to retaliation, censorship, or becoming ostracized then we lose something. We lose the flavor, variety, and diversity that colors life. We lose the meshing of new ideas, and we become uniform and controlled. I for one hope that is not the direction FF is going.

Itme, it is obvious that you offended Merlin in some way, either with your personality or something you wrote or in some other way. To me it's apparent that you said some big truth which he/she did not like, the kind of truth that hurts. Otherwise I don't see why he/she would have reacted so strongly to you.

Best of luck to you! May your genius be not wasted!

(P.S. To the members and moderators of this board: I know this is off-topic, but I feel that attempts to discredit Itme have been made. I just wish to show my support for Itme. Anyways this thread has been moved to the Member's Lounge, right?)
  • #3,272
  • Apr 27, 2007 9:39am Apr 27, 2007 9:39am
itme had qualms about giving me advice because i told him i worked for an aerospace company and he thus deemed me potentially evil because i might have dealings with the defense industry
  • #3,273
  • Apr 27, 2007 11:25am Apr 27, 2007 11:25am
Quoting clam61
itme had qualms about giving me advice because i told him i worked for an aerospace company and he thus deemed me potentially evil because i might have dealings with the defense industry


You have said he had qualms about giving you advice but you have not said whether he gave you advice or not.
  • #3,274
  • Apr 27, 2007 7:20pm Apr 27, 2007 7:20pm
seriously, i dont see why everyone reveres itme as the intellectual giant of our time

there are a lot of big buzzwords being used around here, but have there been any positive results?

I am not talking about good trades here and there, but have there been any logical concepts developed that have proven to be successful in an objective trading system? isn't that what a trader needs?

all i see is lots of news talk and superimposition of blah blah wave in a 4d plane or something.
  • #3,275
  • Apr 27, 2007 7:25pm Apr 27, 2007 7:25pm
this is my favorite part. the summary is, "a thesaurus can make you sound smart!"

Quote
The two primary practitioners of the "Q-E" (Elliott and Q) trading system, myself and another scientist, have both observed some very perplexing phenomena which call into question the standard assumptions of linear time and causality. For instance, there was a clear and evident signal that the Bank of England would raise its interest rate BEFORE January 11th which could be discerned in the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and especially the EUR/GBP wave patterns through specialised predictive analysis. These types of observations have been made regularly over a period of two years, to the extent that it has been remarked that advanced wave analysis can often PREDICT world events BEFORE THEY HAPPEN. There is even evidence that highly accurate quantitative and temporal deterministic effects are routinely evident in market price patterns, if the appropriate variables can be isolated and properly projected into the future.

I hypothesised in an earlier tract that a morphogenetic field manifests in two dimensions - first of all in the dimension of world events and processes, and secondly in the dimension of the statistical representation of those events in economic data such as price variations in currency exchange rates. Thus advanced wave analysis can theoretically foresee events by elucidating processes and trends that find expression firstly in wave patterns, and subsequently in releases of key economic data, or even world events.

(A morphogenetic field (a subset of morphic field) is a hypothetical biological (and potentially social) field that contains the information necessary to shape the exact form of a living thing, as part of its epigenetics, and may also shape its behaviour and coordination with other beings.)

Here is another phenomenon which may help to provide an analogue for the strange predictive power of advanced wave analysis - sound wave pattern propagation at greater than the speed of light. I present this research as an intellectual stimulus to advance the hypothesis that there is a deterministic dimension to technical and perhaps even fundamental macro-economic analysis which could have exploitable value for Forex analysts, especially as the Forex market can be perceived as a system of interconnected, superimposed wave pattern groups encompassing diverse orders of magnitude, from seconds to decades, of multiple and perhaps regularly varying frequency modulations, in various stages of phase relationship. Waves of information may be travelling through the energy system of price variation at speeds which exceed the pace of data collection and release, thus creating a forex analogue of superluminal (faster than light, and thus collapsing standard notions of causality) wave velocity.
  • #3,276
  • Edited 2:55am Apr 28, 2007 1:37am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting clam61
this is my favorite part. the summary is, "a thesaurus can make you sound smart!"
Last week my analysis of GBP/USD suggested that we were in a Wave 4 downwards correction. On April 26 at 10:00 ET my scientific theory of wave motion indicated that a temporary bottom had been met at the price of 1.9890. I wrote in my trading journal at that time in another forum that the likelihood would be of a smaller wave 4 a-b-c upwards correction, followed by one more modest step down to about 1.9850 to 1.9860, to complete the Elliott Wave pattern and meet a Q target, which would be the turning point to a new strong upwards impulse wave targeting 2.0200 or higher. The expected a-b-c upwards correction pattern occurred. At 3:00 ET on April 27 the price descended to a new low of 1.9864, close to my predicted conservative reversal range. At 3:00 ET the direction of movement reversed and accelerated upwards 152 pips very strongly, reaching the price of 2.0016 at 8:26 ET. At 8:30 ET the disappointing US GDP figures were released as follows:

8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (p) High Impact 1.3% 1.9% 2.5%
8:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p) High Impact 4.0% 3.0% 1.7%

The price of GBP/USD then moved up another 25 pips to a daily high of 2.0041 at 8:35 ET, then descended to 1.9954 later on in the day.

It is thus seen that the movement of GBP/USD over the past two days, as always, followed the Q-E theory, and that the exact turning point this morning and subsequent strong upwards movement could be predicted the day before they occurred. It is also strange to note that the majority of the movement upward preceded the release of the data which many people employ to explain the movement.

These temporal causal anomalies occur very frequently. I have not heard anyone ever explain them. The general way to deal with them is to either ignore them, or to alter the version of events and say that the movement occurred after the news release, when in fact it preceded the news release. In many cases the news analysts say that a movement happened in response to a news or data release, when in fact the opposite movement actually occurred. Psychologists have frequently discovered that people adjust their perceptions by inventing the world around them, censoring what they don't believe in and adding perceptions where they feel they are needed, rather than adjusting their concepts to conform to reality.

I have made several hundred precise and accurate predictions of market moves in this trading experiment journal, and my new trading system which I began testing three weeks ago includes four out of five highly precise market predictions in the past two weeks, each with a highly favorable reward / risk ratio. It is believed by myself and my colleague in this research that it is possible to make these kinds of precise trend endpoint predictions with a high degree of regularity. He has already completed over two hundred successful experiments without any system failures, and I have started the test of my early version of the system with four successes and one very small loss.

I am making these statements not as a scientific testimony, but as food for thought and conjecture. It is not possible to verify the above statement about my colleague's trading performance, only to consider it as a hypothetical possibility to stimulate thought. My successful predictions, however, are a matter of record. One may interpret them as random guesses or evidence of a theory in process of discovery; that is a matter of choice.

I hope to offer some successful real time trades in this journal in the future. If my trading strategy based on my market analytical model encounters problems, then it may need adjustment. Note, however, that Jacko hasn't posted any live trades here lately to substantiate allegations of his legendary achievements in trading, nor have any of the other pundits who haunt this site.

If empirical evidence is to be the standard for evaluation of scientific and anecdotal claims regarding analytical models and trading systems, then that standard should be applied equally to all participants in this forum, not just to me. I therefore invite every trader who claims to know how to trade profitably to post at least 200 live trades in this trading journal over the next year, in order to get to the bottom of all the allegations and vague insinuations that fuel both the blind adulation and sneering contempt that contaminate the process of scientific discovery of truth.

Let me point out that pips are not a measure of performance of a trading system. There are many objective and meaningful criteria that can be employed. I place considerable importance on return on capital, percentage of winning trades, average reward / risk ratio, distribution of losses, and frequency of trades. Other people talk about expectancy, Sharpe Ratio, profit factor, maximum drawdown, etc. Many of these performance characteristics of a trading system influence the Risk Factor that can be safely employed. The Risk Factor, in turn, is exponentially related to the financial performance of the trading system. In fact, raw pips are a highly misleading measure of system performance. Many people divide their capital into many parts, earn pips on the various parts, then add all those pips together. Taking this concept to an extreme, let's say I separated my capital in 50 parts, then earned 10 pips on each part. Did I just earn 500 pips, or 10 pips of profit?

From a cursory examination, it seems that the trading system being implemented by Traex in his trading journal employing Elliott Wave theory is the most profitable I have seen yet on this forum. Here is a summary of his performance over the past 3 weeks. If the rules didn't discourage it, I could add testimony from several other traders who have similar or better performance.

" Weekly and April's monthly review:

Trades closed = 4, Wins = 4, Losses = 0
Gains in wins = 830
Net gain this week = +830

No open short-term trade this weekend.

Medium-long term trades open (for trial):
EUR/USD Short currently at around -50.
GBP/USD Short currently at around +120.

There's one last day of April on monday, but doing review on weekend closest to a monthly close is better.

Started on Easter Day 7th April. 3 weeks only so far.
Total trades = 19, Wins = 14, Losses = 5
Net gain for April = +1264 (approx. +37.9% of capital)
Successful wave-riding (capturing at least 50% of wave) = 3"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=23569&page=7
  • #3,277
  • Apr 28, 2007 2:55am Apr 28, 2007 2:55am
Quoting itme
Hi Vantage, yes, as you already know I'm checking out other forums where I can be free to believe in economic reality, law and order, truth and freedom, without being falsely accused of hatred, breaking rules and impersonating myself.

ah you come back to stick a finger in our eye!

i accused you falsely of impersonating yourself? itme that is a damn lie and you know it! you came on this forum with a new username and tried to stir the pot about your disappearance, and i have the IP address to prove it.

i falsely accused you of breaking rules? hmm, if you dont think you have clearly violated rule 2 over and over, then why do your threads always get moved to the members lounge (not talking about this one)?

i falsely accused you of hatred? i dont believe that is false, i believe you are a very hateful person. look no further than clams61 post above. you wont help a guy who works for the aerospace industry? you are a bigot in my eyes. you think it is ok to be a bigot against america, but a bigot is a bigot no matter who it is against.

to all of you guys who think i am being biased against itme because i am american, how do you explain the 20 other bigots i have banned from this forum? anyone who has something against anyone gets banned around here. this is a damn trading forum!!! we shouldnt even know your political views! there is not one single member who is more politically charged than itme. i challenge anyone to find someone (who hasnt already been banned). you guys want to be all impressed with itme's fancy language and make me out to be some bad guy over this situation. but the truth is i am defending our trading environment as i have a million times in the past. if you want to make this about merlin getting his feelings hurt, go ahead, but anyone who has been around here long enough knows i am treating itme no different than those like him in the past. i thought he was a threat to this forum even before i found out he couldnt shut up about his political views.

anyway, itme, you are gone permanently. i am at the end of dealing with you. there are plenty of forums out there with plenty of members who will be too impressed with your fancy language to realize that you actually are saying a load of BS. adios!
Relax and be happy.
  • #3,278
  • Apr 28, 2007 5:37am Apr 28, 2007 5:37am
look, if im wrong then im wrong. but dont just quote me profits for the past few weeks. every system works some of the time.

overall, there obviously has not been anything successful that has stood the test of time.

the bottom line is what has your return been this whole time. how much have you risked to get this return?

Quoting itme
Last week my analysis of GBP/USD suggested that we were in a Wave 4 downwards correction. On April 26 at 10:00 ET my scientific theory of wave motion indicated that a temporary bottom had been met at the price of 1.9890. I wrote in my trading journal at that time in another forum that the likelihood would be of a smaller wave 4 a-b-c upwards correction, followed by one more modest step down to about 1.9850 to 1.9860, to complete the Elliott Wave pattern and meet a Q target, which would be the turning point to a new strong upwards impulse wave targeting 2.0200 or higher. The expected a-b-c upwards correction pattern occurred. At 3:00 ET on April 27 the price descended to a new low of 1.9864, close to my predicted conservative reversal range. At 3:00 ET the direction of movement reversed and accelerated upwards 152 pips very strongly, reaching the price of 2.0016 at 8:26 ET. At 8:30 ET the disappointing US GDP figures were released as follows:

8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (p) High Impact 1.3% 1.9% 2.5%
8:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p) High Impact 4.0% 3.0% 1.7%

The price of GBP/USD then moved up another 25 pips to a daily high of 2.0041 at 8:35 ET, then descended to 1.9954 later on in the day.

It is thus seen that the movement of GBP/USD over the past two days, as always, followed the Q-E theory, and that the exact turning point this morning and subsequent strong upwards movement could be predicted the day before they occurred. It is also strange to note that the majority of the movement upward preceded the release of the data which many people employ to explain the movement.

These temporal causal anomalies occur very frequently. I have not heard anyone ever explain them. The general way to deal with them is to either ignore them, or to alter the version of events and say that the movement occurred after the news release, when in fact it preceded the news release. In many cases the news analysts say that a movement happened in response to a news or data release, when in fact the opposite movement actually occurred. Psychologists have frequently discovered that people adjust their perceptions by inventing the world around them, censoring what they don't believe in and adding perceptions where they feel they are needed, rather than adjusting their concepts to conform to reality.

I have made several hundred precise and accurate predictions of market moves in this trading experiment journal, and my new trading system which I began testing three weeks ago includes four out of five highly precise market predictions in the past two weeks, each with a highly favorable reward / risk ratio. It is believed by myself and my colleague in this research that it is possible to make these kinds of precise trend endpoint predictions with a high degree of regularity. He has already completed over two hundred successful experiments without any system failures, and I have started the test of my early version of the system with four successes and one very small loss.

I am making these statements not as a scientific testimony, but as food for thought and conjecture. It is not possible to verify the above statement about my colleague's trading performance, only to consider it as a hypothetical possibility to stimulate thought. My successful predictions, however, are a matter of record. One may interpret them as random guesses or evidence of a theory in process of discovery; that is a matter of choice.

I hope to offer some successful real time trades in this journal in the future. If my trading strategy based on my market analytical model encounters problems, then it may need adjustment. Note, however, that Jacko hasn't posted any live trades here lately to substantiate allegations of his legendary achievements in trading, nor have any of the other pundits who haunt this site.

If empirical evidence is to be the standard for evaluation of scientific and anecdotal claims regarding analytical models and trading systems, then that standard should be applied equally to all participants in this forum, not just to me. I therefore invite every trader who claims to know how to trade profitably to post at least 200 live trades in this trading journal over the next year, in order to get to the bottom of all the allegations and vague insinuations that fuel both the blind adulation and sneering contempt that contaminate the process of scientific discovery of truth.

Let me point out that pips are not a measure of performance of a trading system. There are many objective and meaningful criteria that can be employed. I place considerable importance on return on capital, percentage of winning trades, average reward / risk ratio, distribution of losses, and frequency of trades. Other people talk about expectancy, Sharpe Ratio, profit factor, maximum drawdown, etc. Many of these performance characteristics of a trading system influence the Risk Factor that can be safely employed. The Risk Factor, in turn, is exponentially related to the financial performance of the trading system. In fact, raw pips are a highly misleading measure of system performance. Many people divide their capital into many parts, earn pips on the various parts, then add all those pips together. Taking this concept to an extreme, let's say I separated my capital in 50 parts, then earned 10 pips on each part. Did I just earn 500 pips, or 10 pips of profit?

From a cursory examination, it seems that the trading system being implemented by Traex in his trading journal employing Elliott Wave theory is the most profitable I have seen yet on this forum. Here is a summary of his performance over the past 3 weeks. If the rules didn't discourage it, I could add testimony from several other traders who have similar or better performance.

" Weekly and April's monthly review:

Trades closed = 4, Wins = 4, Losses = 0
Gains in wins = 830
Net gain this week = +830

No open short-term trade this weekend.

Medium-long term trades open (for trial):
EUR/USD Short currently at around -50.
GBP/USD Short currently at around +120.

There's one last day of April on monday, but doing review on weekend closest to a monthly close is better.

Started on Easter Day 7th April. 3 weeks only so far.
Total trades = 19, Wins = 14, Losses = 5
Net gain for April = +1264 (approx. +37.9% of capital)
Successful wave-riding (capturing at least 50% of wave) = 3"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=23569&page=7
  • #3,279
  • Apr 28, 2007 7:51am Apr 28, 2007 7:51am
Hi Itme, thanks for your support on my system. However, I agree with clam61 that it's only 3 weeks past, not 3 years so nothing is to be proved yet. Last week was considered to be a lucky one for me anyway.
Tra-X
  • #3,280
  • Apr 28, 2007 10:35am Apr 28, 2007 10:35am
itme welcome back it seems longer than it actually was i was hearing stories of you being back from the dead. Or even worse the next elvis sighting. Welcome back i think you should start your own website that way you can express your views or what not. this is america is it not?
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