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MTF Stochastics

  • #381
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:31pm Apr 11, 2007 6:31pm
SO now that you read all that I hope you looked at the charts and thought to yourself..."geez there is a lot of trend movement between those groups of "3 lines".

Yep...trade the reversals if you like...but trade the opposite too. Trade the trend!

Look at the trend real estate between those lines! There you are...all that to find out we are right back where we started...trade the trend!

The reason I explained the reversals to death is so you can use them to make pips or so that you don't panic with your stops. There is going to be a trend...BUT you want to wait for the reversal. This way you can see the reversal, know the reversal is going to happen...and then hop on the trend and make lotsa pips....because you now there is also going to be a trend.

Good pipping all!
Attached Image
  • #382
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:47pm Apr 11, 2007 6:47pm
Spud
You have being trading this system for a while now, how often on avaerge would you see three or all four stochastics line up in a typical Euro/ US session?
  • #383
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:09pm Apr 11, 2007 7:09pm
Quoting jacanpipster
Spud
You have being trading this system for a while now, how often on avaerge would you see three or all four stochastics line up in a typical Euro/ US session?
I only trade GBPJPY with this. But others have tried it on other pairs with success.
  • #384
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:15pm Apr 11, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting Spudfyre
I only trade GBPJPY with this. But others have tried it on other pairs with success.
Do you see anything now in G/J?
  • #385
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:16pm Apr 11, 2007 7:16pm
Spud,

You have just lost me... I'm not understanding. Are you saying we look at the 4 hr as the main trend, say it is long. Then when 3 lower timeframes go against the 4hr trend we can short? Then when all 4 line up again we have a new trend?


Help.

Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #386
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:19pm Apr 11, 2007 7:19pm
I was in and out already on a short.
More short moves still left in it....but need to be a little cautious it may blip up.
  • #387
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:29pm Apr 11, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting bagovino
Spud,

You have just lost me... I'm not understanding. Are you saying we look at the 4 hr as the main trend, say it is long. Then when 3 lower timeframes go against the 4hr trend we can short? Then when all 4 line up again we have a new trend?


Help.

Bagovino
Take a 4 Hr Long.
It has fallen below 20 and risen back up to 20 or crossed at the close of it's candle.
Ok, now go back and look at 1H. Where did it last cross the 20 up?
Now the 30M?

Now, if they all crossed say in the last 4 hours you can (a "3"):
1. Just go long and ride the trend with a trailing stop loss.
2. Wait until all 3 or 4 time frames line up and go long.

If this is a "2+1" where the 3 time frames have crossed recently but not in the same 4 hour period:
1. Treat this as a reversal, go long if you get 4 TF lined up
2. Go long with 3 tf lined up.
3. Wait the long out and then go back to the short trend if it existed earlier.

If you look at the current move on GJ ("2+1") it is likely a price reversal against the long, it is going short and then it will continue to go long unless we get an indication of something else
  • #388
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:44pm Apr 11, 2007 7:44pm
Spud
My error I didn't mean the EUR/US pair I actually meant how often have you seen all 4 or 3 stoch line up in the British and US trading session?
  • #389
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:46pm Apr 11, 2007 7:46pm
See chart
Attached Image
  • #390
  • Apr 11, 2007 7:48pm Apr 11, 2007 7:48pm
Quoting jacanpipster
Spud
My error I didn't mean the EUR/US pair I actually meant how often have you seen all 4 or 3 stoch line up in the British and US trading session?
It varies considerably..sometimes 2-3 times a day....other times 5 or 6 times a week. This past week has been very quiet.
  • #391
  • Edited 10:38pm Apr 11, 2007 9:00pm | Edited 10:38pm
Spud,

I belong to the group that is lost in this new forest. What I am seeing is that when all indicators coincide there is a strong signal to go short/long, and then there may be some counter-trades when the 4hr stoch reaches oversold or overbought levels but not all TF's are there. So go short or long depending on what is the stochastic showing.
If you see in your charts, every mini trend or mini-counter trend coincides with oversold/bought levels in the 4Hr stochastics. Then...why shall we worry about drawing the dotted lines?
  • #392
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:21pm Apr 11, 2007 11:21pm
Looks like all 4 TF's are crossing down.


B.
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #393
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:46am Apr 12, 2007 5:46am
Quoting bagovino
Looks like all 4 TF's are crossing down.


B.

Bago,

did you ride that one? That was good for 18 pips - 8 (spread) = 10.
correct?
  • #394
  • Apr 12, 2007 6:28am Apr 12, 2007 6:28am
Hi Spudfyre,

Thanks for taking the time to post and further our knowledge with your teachings.

I have understood what you have posted so far, one question, when does the 4 hour time period begin ? Would it be at the standard 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000, 0000 GMT times or when you get the first crossover on the 4hr stocahstic, and then everything follows on from there ?

Would it be possible for you to show us on a 4 hour live time frame (or longer)what you plot and how you would trade.

Thanks Elbart
  • #395
  • Apr 12, 2007 7:18am Apr 12, 2007 7:18am
Quoting elbart
Hi Spudfyre,

Thanks for taking the time to post and further our knowledge with your teachings.

I have understood what you have posted so far, one question, when does the 4 hour time period begin ? Would it be at the standard 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000, 0000 GMT times or when you get the first crossover on the 4hr stocahstic, and then everything follows on from there ?

Would it be possible for you to show us on a 4 hour live time frame (or longer)what you plot and how you would trade.

Thanks Elbart
try read the last 4pages where spud explain all
  • #396
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:15am Apr 12, 2007 8:15am
Quoting elbart
Hi Spudfyre,

Thanks for taking the time to post and further our knowledge with your teachings.

I have understood what you have posted so far, one question, when does the 4 hour time period begin ? Would it be at the standard 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000, 0000 GMT times or when you get the first crossover on the 4hr stocahstic, and then everything follows on from there ?

Would it be possible for you to show us on a 4 hour live time frame (or longer)what you plot and how you would trade.

Thanks Elbart
Yes, 4H periods are standard to 4H chart (GMT in my case)...so all your charts should coincide. We are assuming we are not watching the 4H charts minute by minute and trying to live life instead So we assume we only know the 4H crossed in the 4H candle period..at some time during the 4H period.
  • #397
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:21am Apr 12, 2007 8:21am
The next two charts are a walk through of the last signal on April 11th and up to a few minutes ago.
The left most chart is teh 4H right after the 4H crossed 80. Thus is a "2+1" so we expect price to retrace a little and then go back to the previous trend which is up.
On the 1H chart you can see the price retraces 30 pips and then heads up. Notice how it didn't show up in the stoch on the 1H but that price eventually catches up to the stoch.
Attached Image
  • #398
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:27am Apr 12, 2007 8:27am
Here is a closer look at the 30/1H/4H stochs.
The bottom chart is the 30M price and stochs. We actually have 3 different trade options after a 4H window;
1. Trade the expected retrace
2. Trade the previous trend since this is a "2+1" and expect some down movement before the up move and chase trend with trailing stop
2a. Wait for the retrace to finish and then buy the previous trend to max pip gain and chase with trailing stop
3. Grab some pips long after price retrace

This is a really difficult stoch reading. Our 4H stoch is diverging right after the window, the 1H is following trend and the 30M diverges during the retrace. Typically you probably wouldn't trade this.
However it does show how accurate the "2+1" cross is and how it can help you know what to expect.
Attached Image
  • #399
  • Apr 12, 2007 9:23am Apr 12, 2007 9:23am
Thanks Spudfyre, now I see how it all comes together.

When we have a another '2+1' then we will expect another small retracement, I guess the same for a '1+2', and after this if we get a '3' that would signify a trend reversal and a possible 'mega-piping' ?
  • #400
  • Apr 12, 2007 9:34am Apr 12, 2007 9:34am
Quoting elbart
Thanks Spudfyre, now I see how it all comes together.

When we have a another '2+1' then we will expect another small retracement, I guess the same for a '1+2', and after this if we get a '3' that would signify a trend reversal and a possible 'mega-piping' ?
You got it...just watch out for stoch/price divergence
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