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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #173,141
  • Apr 25, 2009 5:28pm Apr 25, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting rgitt05
The 140.60 support on the weekly TL is still holding up..

Until the 140.60 breaks, I will stay in the trade but at least lockin some pips..

Friday closed positive...

TL is still my friend..Buying on the dips..



Good Luck Bears....
Just to say that in between your great analysis RGITT, MALC et al
Do you guys have time to enjoy your Ferraris, mansions and wifeys or are you just bored? LOL
Cheers!
Have a great weekend
  • #173,142
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:14pm Apr 25, 2009 6:14pm
Here we see the hourly chart range trade scenario for last friday. Notice the candle formations, and the lower high.
Notice the hard bottom at the red trendline around 141.04. there was demand at this price level on Friday.

Notice the green 50 fib retrace, and how it correlates with the aqua colored 100 sma.
Green 22 sma crossed over down on the brown 55 sma.
The 100, 55, and 22 sma's have a downward slope.

Entries and exits are shown for the hourly chart scalping scenario.
Range trade is effective and profitable.

Notice how the price broke the aqua 100 sma, retested, and failed to close on the retests.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp jpy hourly 2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #173,143
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:19pm Apr 25, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting ovaforty
I see more downside to gbp/jpy where I might wanna own it again. Stop loss below the trendline somewhere safe but reasonable if i guessed wrong. Market Sentiment will dictate my strategy, daily.
I read the momentum indicators on the new daily and 4 hour candles at 0:00 GMT time.
You don't see much price movement on the asian open, because the smart money is placing limit orders at this time. What movement you see on the Asian session is routine importer/exporter/bank business, usually.

The moms forecasted the daily price movement before the fact...
The FXCM SSI indicator shows more sellers than buyers on GU and UJ, thus Geppy more likely be bearish next week Monday.
  • #173,144
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:22pm Apr 25, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting ovaforty
Here we see the hourly chart range trade scenario for last friday. Notice the candle formations, and the lower high.
Notice the hard bottom at the red trendline around 141.04. there was demand at this price level on Friday.

Notice the green 50 fib retrace, and how it correlates with the aqua colored 100 sma.
Green 22 sma crossed over down on the brown 55 sma.
The 100, 55, and 22 sma's have a downward slope.

Entries and exits are shown for the hourly chart scalping scenario.
Range trade is effective and profitable.

Notice how the price broke...
looks very bearish to me
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #173,145
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:30pm Apr 25, 2009 6:30pm
The Heiken Ashi candlesticks with a T3 MA and a "high-low channel" can be used to confirm trend direction and strength.

The idea here is that the t3 indicator is a lagging indicator , which is good, we want the lag.

You see, you can determine a trend when:
1) Price starts to leave the t3ma, meaning the moving average can't keep up with price "ergo" trending and alternatively the trend strength is decreasing when the "lagging" moving average catches up with price.

2.) If price hugs the upper or lower channels it is a further confirmation of a trend.

That being said, it's difficult right now to make a definitive comment on guppy. Because it is currently in a range. Price on the 4hr chart is sitting on the t3ma.

However, skipping to the weekly chart, we see a clear upward movement, now, is this just a huge bear flag about to break out of the upward movement? Only time will tell. It will need to break out on the lower time frames to confirm direction.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #173,146
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:35pm Apr 25, 2009 6:35pm
Very nice Godfrey, as usual, you get the big picture.
  • #173,147
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:39pm Apr 25, 2009 6:39pm
i am also buying dips on aud pairs and crosses, as long as China GDP stays in a sustainable range.
  • #173,148
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:43pm Apr 25, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting botadufig05
LOL. I really do like the way you take criticisms, you do have a way of making a joke out of such.

Naija for life
thanks bro...most times we come across people who hate us for where we are from..funny we are in the 21st century
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #173,149
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:45pm Apr 25, 2009 6:45pm
Quoting ovaforty
i am also buying dips on aud pairs and crosses, as long as China GDP stays in a sustainable range.
i think irs better to wait for a new weekly bar to open..in other to get a clear definition
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #173,150
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:58pm Apr 25, 2009 6:58pm
Yep only time will tell where geppy is going. . .

Daily macd has given us an over bought signal and the fact there are four candle below the daily 5 sma and we have closed below the daily pivot and have failed to regain support at the recent support area at 145.50 makes the short-term outlook bearish for now. . .

However, looking at the weekly and monthly chart says something all together different. . . weekly and monthly macd says we should be buying all dips above the support area ar'd 135.70'ish. . .

Also, once the daily macd is in line with weekly and monthly I expect price to turn impulsive and head back above 145 with targets set at 147 and above.. .

We can make pips both ways just a matter of how u trade and how u interpret your charts. . .

Food for thought!
  • #173,151
  • Apr 25, 2009 7:09pm Apr 25, 2009 7:09pm
I exited my long aud/usd at the evening star formation double top. Purple 400 sma resistance.

risk aversion = i short it.
risk tolerance = I buy it and hold for the white 50 fib, then maybe that white 38 fib by Labor Day.

Nice range trade set up on this weekly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #173,152
  • Apr 25, 2009 7:35pm Apr 25, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting ovaforty
I exited my long aud/usd at the evening star formation double top. Purple 400 sma resistance.

risk aversion = i short it.
risk tolerance = I buy it and hold for the white 50 fib, then maybe that white 38 fib by Labor Day.

Nice range trade set up on this weekly chart.
thanks, it's my turn now.
  • #173,153
  • Apr 25, 2009 8:00pm Apr 25, 2009 8:00pm
Cable gave good pips last week. Look at the daily chart range trade scenario.
Monday short
Tuesday long
wednesday short
Thursday long
Friday exit day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #173,154
  • Apr 25, 2009 8:05pm Apr 25, 2009 8:05pm
Check out usd/cad and gbp/chf. It is testing long term support area. If it holds I buy it.
  • #173,155
  • Apr 25, 2009 8:14pm Apr 25, 2009 8:14pm
Over the years, most of my losses came during the last week of the month, before i understood the bigger picture. I stand aside a lot.

Already made my monthly goal, and then some. Why risk?
I can now give myself a payday to meet monthly expenses, which is my main priority in life.

I will use Forex to fund a missionary project in a 3rd world country. If God has called me, then He will fund it.
  • #173,156
  • Edited 8:40pm Apr 25, 2009 8:17pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting stewrigh
Hi PB - Do you know a good site to research the COT report, that explains how to interpret the numbers??
Guideline – How to read COT Report

1st – Under Chicago Mercantile Exchange –>Click Short Format
2nd – Then you will see plain report (black and white format)
3rd – Scroll down till BRITISH POUND STERLING (PIC B)
4th – COT report have 3 categories NON-COMMERCIAL, COMMERCIAL and NON REPORTABLE

NON-COMMERCIAL
Information from large professional traders such as Hedge funds. Most of the times there are who speculate forex market.

COMMERCIAL
Information from Commercial Bank, Multi National Giant Company.

NON- REPORTABLE
Information from retail traders.


Now focus on NON-COMMERCIAL DATA

Take a look at their positions.
Long Contract : 15,614
Short Contract : 39,774 (Refer to PIC B)

Now we want to know their net long position (positive) and net short position (Negative). Between these two numbers we can get net short information (39,774 - 15,614 = 24160). So net short positions is - 24,160 contracts. This is weekly data, you need few week data to predict demand and supply for GBP. From the data plot the net positions CHART.

Why I’m focus on Non Commercial Data ?????
Answer : Hudge fund is the biggest player in the currency market – They move the market. Their core business !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #173,157
  • Apr 25, 2009 8:51pm Apr 25, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Guideline – How to read COT Report

1st – Under Chicago Mercantile Exchange –>Click Short Format
2nd – Then you will see plain report (black and white format)
3rd – Scroll down till BRITISH POUND STERLING (PIC B)
[font=Century Gothic][font=Verdana][size=2]4th – COT report have 3 categories...
I prefer to follow the banks position. No risk, easy safe money. Hedge funds got burned bad. Why would I follow them?
I am a forex investor, not a trader. Boring and steady. No stress.
  • #173,158
  • Apr 25, 2009 9:07pm Apr 25, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Guideline – How to read COT Report

1st – Under Chicago Mercantile Exchange –>Click Short Format
2nd – Then you will see plain report (black and white format)
3rd – Scroll down till BRITISH POUND STERLING (PIC B)
[font=Century Gothic][font=Verdana][size=2]4th – COT report have 3 categories...
thanks for the info pandora,
going to book mark this....
  • #173,159
  • Apr 25, 2009 9:55pm Apr 25, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting pkimnyc
hi,

you don't live too far from me.

i live in green brook, nj
Hi sorry I just went back and found this post..we're practically neighbors!
  • #173,160
  • Apr 25, 2009 9:56pm Apr 25, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting ovaforty
Over the years, most of my losses came during the last week of the month, before i understood the bigger picture. I stand aside a lot.

Already made my monthly goal, and then some. Why risk?
I can now give myself a payday to meet monthly expenses, which is my main priority in life.

I will use Forex to fund a missionary project in a 3rd world country. If God has called me, then He will fund it.
and may God bless you with that brother . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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