The WoRmHoLe

Nav : thanks bro, I hope that helped

Dave : Welcome back brother

thank u ..means something especially when comment like this come from accomplished traders

it stopped me out and went to the target....i think im sticking to larger time frames i notice the difference is u dont need to worry so much about trendlines just the direction...so long as u realise what valid support and resistances are...then just let it do its thing

Thanks Azim. I haven't really been posting as much on the forum these days. I find most people don't have a clue and are just wanting a direction to trade in.

It's just a blessing to be alive everyday to have the opportunity to have another go at life (on a more theological note!) . I hope you're well there.

You were nearly spot on, on that trade Nav. Just entering in at a slightly different place would have paid many dividends. Over 100 of them in fact!

hey bro u still holding your long?

Ub

I'm doing okay my friend & I know you are as well
Screw those people dave. Your insights are valuable to us here mate, so don't be a stranger!

Ub,

Post #1020 bro. I've updated the trade. Have a good one

thanks dave

Cable had been relatively easy to trade today as opposed to dragon. The 8hrly bullish harami which was pointed out yesterday served us bulls well
I've attached 2 charts together with this post, one which was pointed out to a friend not too long ago to explain as to why I am bullish. Every dip that turned to strength was a superb opportunity to add to position or enter new long position. Atm, I'm gonna hold my long for another hour before deciding.
Be back in bit before the close.

Anyone thinking of buying the pound next week might like to read this first.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...l-of-soup.html

I don't rate Simon Heffer one bit as any sort of economist. I think he's an alarmist, who often spouts populist views with scant regard to the facts or the broader perspective. A prime example of this can be drawn from this absurd insight he provides us with:

"so then the sooner we arrange a takeover by China or Abu Dhabi the better. Otherwise, another few months of the Brown Economic Miracle will have half of us working in call centres and the other half unemployed and sitting in soup kitchens."

Therefore, in my opinion, he should not be relied upon for a balanced assessment on the UK economy, much in the same way a Labour supporting columnist's views could not be taken as being impartial.

A far more balanced view, however, comes from Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. This guy, in my view, is great at seeing the bigger macro picture, which will definitely lead cable in the coming months. In the below piece, in addition to analysing the UK's fiscal position, he also covers the dangerous imbalances of the world's economy, which are a major factor as to why this credit implosion occurred.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...A?OpenDocument

I shall be watching closely the gilt auctions in the coming weeks/months, in order to ascertain the level of investor demand (bid/cover ratio), in addition to the levels of QE easing that are taking place, which will, at least, partially offset the supply of debt hitting the market. Also worth watching are the divergences from the CDS spreads on gilts compared to bunds and US treasuries. These factors can act as a leading indicator on the market's sentiment towards sterling.

We've seen one failed gilt auction already this year, any further failures would spook the market and likely cause a sharp fall in sterling in an act-first-ask-questions-later response from investors. This could, in a worse case scenario, cause a self-reinforcing (reflexive) dumping of sterling assets, forcing down further the value of the pound.

The drop in sterling during Wednesday's budget was much connected to Darling's over-optimistic predictions on economic growth for 2009 and 2010, which the majority of economists and investors do not believe. If economic indicators in the coming weeks/months, including revisions to Q1 GDP, confirm this skepticism, then this will lead to obvious and, possibly, heavy downward pressure on sterling, as investors absord the reality of the fast deteriorating public sector finances of the UK - lower tax receipts leading to increased borrowing and further glut of gilts hitting the market.

However, against this huge increase of gilts coming to the market (public sector borrowing is expected to hit £200bn in 2009), we have the BOE authorised to purchase up to £75bn under QE measures. Also supportive of gilts is that UK banks will be forced by regulators to hold huge amounts of their capital in UK government debt, as they operate with more capital and less leverage in the new world financial order.

Also, there are some mildly positive points for the UK's economy, believe it or not, in that the rate of economis decline is definitely slowing, mortgage approvals are increasing, broader credit conditions are slowly easing, housing data points to some promising signs and retail sales are holding up as consumers enjoy the extra spending power from lower borrowing costs and cheaper fuel. This leads to justified speculation we have likely seen the worst quarter in terms of economic decline, but the future is definitely a precarious one. In terms of unemployment, the worst is definitely yet to come, a fact which is not doubted by anyone.

On a much more broader point, highlighted this week in the FT, is the noted enthusiasm of countries such as Russia and China to move away from the dollar being the world's reserve currency to instead using a basket of currencies (SDRs, maybe). If this was to come to fruition, then we could see large scale purchasing of sterling against dollars, as central banks diversify their FX reserves. However, an interesting theory as this one is, it will be likely be many years before this takes effect.

Simon may be alarmist but that doesn't mean he's wrong.

The FT is even more biased in the other direction.

Hi Stewrigh,

Actually, the FT has been highly critical of Brown in recent months, particularly regarding his management of public finances. Within the FT, there are columnists from the right, left and centre of the political spectrum.

As for Simon, let's look at the below populist, near tabloid, point made by him and judge his views accordingly. There are far better economists and writers out there that we can source, rather than this guy. Well, that's what I think anyway.

"then the sooner we arrange a takeover by China or Abu Dhabi the better. Otherwise, another few months of the Brown Economic Miracle will have half of us working in call centres and the other half unemployed and sitting in soup kitchens."

I don't disagree he's alarmist and have no idea whether he's a good economist or not.

But its sentiment that drives markets.

People take note of commentators, what they say is normally only a reflection public opinion and public opinion informs sentiment.

Yes the China comment is ridiculous but the last time we had a Labour government the IMF had to bail us out and I don't think a repeat of that scenario is quite so ridiculous.

I, much like yourself, think that the UK currently sits in a very precarious situation. Although I firmly believe that an IMF rescue remains a very remote possibility, as there are many positives in relation to the UK's economy and its now weaker currency.

However, I also concur that the market's perspective on the UK, and its willingness to fund the growing deficits, can change without warning, in a swift and decisive manner. This is why I advocate, as I set out in my initial response, keeping a close eye on the gilt market and any divergences between CDS spreads on gilts compared to bunds and US treasuries, as well as leading economic indicators.

But I don't know anyone in the market that takes any notice whatsoever of the Simon Heffers and Peter Hitchens of this world, nor any of the left wing commentators sitting on the opposing side of the political spectrum. They are highly sensationalist and painfully simplistic in their outlook, with little or no understanding of the sentiment in the market, which is the only kind of sentiment that matters. Therefore, I certainly wouldn't base any trading decisions on their opinions, aside from perhaps using them as a contrarion indicator. :-)

We will know soon enough when the market open ,but thats what I am looking at for cable and dragon. If I am undecided about cable dragon looks bearish to me,cheers

Good morning. I have added a po to my existing open position and set take profit (which I rarely do ) as I won't be around to monitor the market. The chart attached here is the followup to the charts attached at post #1029. So, that's that. No more trade for the month for me & I'm happy that trading this month so far had been good. Any gains on this trade would be a bonus, else, no problemo.
Okay, be back on the 5th of May. Good luck & trade safe everyone

Current Position.

1.long @4649 sl @4500 tp @4860

Pending Order.

1.long @4655 sl @4500 tp @4860

using trendlines to trail stop

Azim,
congrats on the wedding and enjoy the honeymoon my friend!

congrats bro! very happy to hear this news