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34ema/atr

  • #101
  • Apr 11, 2007 9:28am Apr 11, 2007 9:28am
Quoting ZeeTrader
Hi wahomeron:

Intering simple system, could you advice me how I can implement, on a daily chart, I have a day job CST, so cant take the 5 min. trades, would like to apply it to a swing system looking at a daily chart.

Appreciate
Thanks
Zee
you can change the standard deviation setting but i have to say on a daily chart you will get no more than 10 trades per year. Maybe a 4 hour chart is more suitable. I would tell you more but i don`t know the optimal settings on any other time frame since i don`t trade there. However if should be able to figure out if you understand the concept of the system.
cheers.
Welcome to the Layer Cake son!
  • #102
  • Apr 11, 2007 9:39am Apr 11, 2007 9:39am
Quoting wilczek
Great little system, however, how did you avoid the (long) trade in between the two or did you take that one aswell. Or is 2 longs in a row a no no ! Just wondering cause like someone else who posted I probs would have taken your two and their one. I would also have taken another one (short) around 1:50pm GMT, which looks like it may or may not work out. Thanks for the sharing the simple system, I too have looked at various indicators with no real joy (as a filter). I guess not taking two trades in the same direction may be an indicator, maybe there isnt an indicator (filter). Thanks again.

hallo wilczeck, i usually take one trade per side per day.
Something very easy on my psyche. the more a trend progresses the more it is likely to die down. If i end up taking it anyway i use half the leverage.
Welcome to the Layer Cake son!
  • #103
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:19pm Apr 11, 2007 4:19pm
i think this is an interesting refinement. was paying attention to this in the last two days particularly since quite a few trades went into loss..

would you mind sharing your results/back tests?

thks

Quoting richy
simple and powerful system, thx for sharing.

i'm considering scalping (best during asian session) by selling/buying when price crosses above/below the envelope before going with the trend...
  • #104
  • Apr 11, 2007 5:52pm Apr 11, 2007 5:52pm
Hi, Wahomeron.
First thanks and congratulations. You (not so little) system is very interesting.
What are your trading hours, please ? TIA
Best regards
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #105
  • Apr 12, 2007 11:28am Apr 12, 2007 11:28am
I am not understanding what is so great about this system. Look at todays gbpusd chart. Am I missing something?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.jpg Size: 43 KB
  • #106
  • Edited 3:29pm Apr 12, 2007 3:10pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting greatlakes
I am not understanding what is so great about this system. Look at todays gbpusd chart. Am I missing something?
I tend to agree. The system seems about 50% right and 50% wrong and thats not really a good w/L ratio since a coin toss is basically the same. I'm not knocking the work or the system it just doesn't really seem like its profitable to me but if someone has backtests or forward tests I'd love to be proven wrong
  • #107
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:37pm Apr 12, 2007 3:37pm
read post 88

Quoting jhathawa
I tend to agree. The system seems about 50% right and 50% wrong and thats not really a good w/L ratio since a coin toss is basically the same. I'm not knocking the work or the system it just doesn't really seem like its profitable to me but if someone has backtests or forward tests I'd love to be proven wrong
  • #108
  • Apr 13, 2007 3:20am Apr 13, 2007 3:20am
Quoting richy
simple and powerful system, thx for sharing.

i'm considering scalping (best during asian session) by selling/buying when price crosses above/below the envelope before going with the trend...
Hello and thank you for details!
Could you please show a chart with an example? Most interested in details of phrase "selling/buying when price crosses above/below the envelope" and what do you maen saying "before going with the trend"
  • #109
  • Apr 14, 2007 5:12pm Apr 14, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting ;270547
I tend to agree. The system seems about 50% right and 50% wrong and thats not really a good w/L ratio since a coin toss is basically the same. I'm not knocking the work or the system it just doesn't really seem like its profitable to me but if someone has backtests or forward tests I'd love to be proven wrong

jhathawa,
i respect your opinions but different things work for different people. The system might have a 50:50 win ratio but it eliminates a lot of the unknown based on experience. Basically you know what to do and when to, which imho builds confidence in a system enabling one to trade without fear. The rest and more important is money management.
hanks for your thoughts.
Welcome to the Layer Cake son!
  • #110
  • Apr 14, 2007 5:14pm Apr 14, 2007 5:14pm
can`t wait for next week folks. May the odds be with you.
wahomeron.
Welcome to the Layer Cake son!
  • #111
  • Edited 1:00pm Apr 16, 2007 1:51am | Edited 1:00pm
I´m sitting here at a quiet Frankfurt Open and waiting too see if the uptrend will continue towards the big 2.0000 level or will it turn back around the 1.9900 handle? I´m also catching up on last weeks posts...

I have added a very simple filter to my trading to this great KISS system that wahomeron has shared with us.......watch the SLOPE OF THE 34 EMA.

If you get into a trade, say like the first sell shown on the chart in post 105, and the SLOPE of the 34 EMA CHANGES DIRECTION - exit the trade immediatly and re-evaluate.

As we are looking at a 5 minute chart, with a 34 EMA, reversals will be frequent and by using the change of direction of the 34 EMA as a filter - and also as an indicator for the direction of the short term trend - we can cut down the loosing trades that happen when the market´s 5 minute trend reverses.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #112
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:24am Apr 17, 2007 11:24am
Quoting greatlakes
I am not understanding what is so great about this system. Look at todays gbpusd chart. Am I missing something?
waho is only showing the winning trades, between them there are many losing trades. Yes, it is a simple system and so easy to follow. But that does not mean it is a profitable system. But I thank him for sharing it. Maybe it will be useful to me someway.Regards
  • #113
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:37am Apr 18, 2007 1:37am
Quoting FxBabe
waho is only showing the winning trades, between them there are many losing trades. Yes, it is a simple system and so easy to follow. But that does not mean it is a profitable system. But I thank him for sharing it. Maybe it will be useful to me someway.Regards
IMO, what we have been given is a very clean method of interperating price action on a 5 min chart relative to the 34 ema and its envelope.

As given, it is a trend continuation system and therefore requires a trend to work correctly. A trend is in force when the EMAs are sloping - either up or down. When they are flat - horizontal - there is no trend currently in force OR the trend is reversing.

If we go back and study several weeks of price action with the above concept in mind, we can easily work out a set of simple rules to avoid the loosing trades.......one rule might be "Do not enter when 34 EMA is flat - wait for clarification"

There are plenty of other signals that the price action gives us, especially via candlesticks, but IMO the movement of the 34 EMA itself is the clearest to see and it will dramatically increase success if taken into account.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #114
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:20am Apr 18, 2007 2:20am
Hello Islander!

Quoting Islander
one rule might be "Do not enter when 34 EMA is flat - wait for clarification"
So the algorithm is:
Trigger -> Slope analise -> Jump from EMA
or
Slope analise -> Trigger -> Jump from EMA
?

I ask it because 34EMA@M5 is very fast and it can follow both of the movements: cross-envelope trigger and cross-EMA break. When have we to watch the slope?

Thank you!
  • #115
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:10am Apr 18, 2007 8:10am
Quoting aktaurus
Hello Islander!



So the algorithm is:
Trigger -> Slope analise -> Jump from EMA
or
Slope analise -> Trigger -> Jump from EMA
?

I ask it because 34EMA@M5 is very fast and it can follow both of the movements: cross-envelope trigger and cross-EMA break. When have we to watch the slope?

Thank you!
You´re right, the 34 EMA is very fast and the way that I am using it is to look at what it is doing after the Alert has been given and when price has got back at the 34 EMA. That is the "now" point and when a decision needs to be made. What is the action of the EMA and the candles moving towards ittelling me at this moment?

As I´m continually viewing the picture via candles, prior highs / lows, trendlines etc I will probably have some other input, but this method is giving - for me - and easily readable picture of the price action.

I´ll post a chart in a few moments
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #116
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:34am Apr 18, 2007 8:34am
Here´s the action from the London Open this morning - I only trade this pair from 1:30am till about 1:30pm - its active time.

The long green candle is the spike up on the BOE minutes - notice the long tail on top - no follow through. Then 2 dojis - indecision. Price pulls back to the 34 EMA whose slope has now fallen from +40 to +10.

The Buy Signal is still good and was at 20109. Then 2 more dojis...more indecision before a green candle which stalls at 20123....another lower high.

Price pulls back and then breaks through the now flat 34 EMA....has 2 more green candles...again with long tails on top and again makes a lower high, so I´m out around the MA.

I have a sell on a break to new lows, as the MA has now turned down....but that´s another story!

Another hint of a pending failure was a lower high in the Stochastic - bearish divergence.

NB I have changed the colours of the envelope...red is upper. Green is 200 EMA and I have "profit bands" where price may stall - the dashed ones.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #117
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:39am Apr 18, 2007 8:39am
Darn, chart didnt load...no idea why, I´ll have to try later.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #118
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:53am Apr 20, 2007 2:53am
Trying again.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5m cable apr 18 slopes.jpg Size: 64 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #119
  • Apr 28, 2007 1:13pm Apr 28, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting wahomeron
jhathawa,
The system might have a 50:50 win ratio...
hanks for your thoughts.

So that is your experience with this system? Then I guess the profitability is in the R:R ratio?
  • #120
  • May 31, 2007 10:47am May 31, 2007 10:47am
Thanks wahomeron for sharing this strategy, with some modifications and filters, I found it is working for me with considerable win ratio, also the lose is limited. As a 5min method, if anyone can catch 10+ pips a day, good enough. .
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