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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #3,021
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:50pm Apr 11, 2007 1:50pm
i think now start some shorting. dow dropping. Defenedly some down movement is happening.

14:47Dow curently down 109.22 @ 12,465.77 14:46Large US Investment Bk was the major seller there of $/JPY
  • #3,022
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:57pm Apr 11, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting Mother
i think now start some shorting. dow dropping. Defenedly some down movement is happening.

14:47Dow curently down 109.22 @ 12,465.77 14:46Large US Investment Bk was the major seller there of $/JPY

Tricky moment now... GU is not willing to drop and UJ bounced off the R1 (coming down from R2) during this bank move...

Dow Jones is down from the opening. But it doesn't seem a huge profit taking... It's finding buying interest at mid 12,400s, which is yet a good level, compared with previous days...

TIme to watch... Those who like that butterfly flying inside of you stomach, 233.50s are prices to buy :surprised
  • #3,023
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:01pm Apr 11, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting cesarnc
TIme to watch... Those who like that butterfly flying inside of you stomach, 233.50s are prices to buy :surprised
You think it will not break below weekly pivot?
  • #3,024
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:05pm Apr 11, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting cesarnc
TIme to watch... Those who like that butterfly flying inside of you stomach, 233.50s are prices to buy :surprised
i think 235.50 is good place to buy a bounce, coz it seems to be quite strong support.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,025
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:05pm Apr 11, 2007 2:05pm
Buy the dips.
  • #3,026
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:08pm Apr 11, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting imbiber
Buy the dips.
I agree. But i won't buy till a lot lower. I won't start buying until we are in the 234's but that is just me.
  • #3,027
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:08pm Apr 11, 2007 2:08pm
235.30 & of course 235 as well. I'm still bullish on this pair.

Quoting gagiul
i think 235.50 is good place to buy a bounce, coz it seems to be quite strong support.
  • #3,028
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:11pm Apr 11, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting Mother
You think it will not break below weekly pivot?
Can't tell. I don't watch those levels... But Cable holding 9740/50 brings another assault to 98s as a possibility. UJ bouncing off 119.20, brings 119.50.

1.9820 x 119.50 = 236.85

This is that ultra advanced technical theory, created in a secret scientific facility somewhere in Siberia. It's called

K.I.S.S
Keep It Simple, Stupid.... When I adopted this "church", I started making a buck
  • #3,029
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:14pm Apr 11, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting cesarnc

TIme to watch... Those who like that butterfly flying inside of you stomach, 233.50s are prices to buy :surprised
GEEESSS.. Sorry. I meant 235.50
  • #3,030
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:16pm Apr 11, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting cesarnc
K.I.S.S
Keep It Simple, Stupid.... When I adopted this "church", I started making a buck

heheh some goodday when i learn to be simpel .)
  • #3,031
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:17pm Apr 11, 2007 2:17pm
I like your style ceasar. What's your take on tommorrow's GBP trade balance report's effect on this pair?

Quoting cesarnc
Can't tell. I don't watch those levels... But Cable holding 9740/50 brings another assault to 98s as a possibility. UJ bouncing off 119.20, brings 119.50.

1.9820 x 119.50 = 236.85

This is that ultra advanced technical theory, created in a secret scientific facility somewhere in Siberia. It's called

K.I.S.S
Keep It Simple, Stupid.... When I adopted this "church", I started making a buck
  • #3,032
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:20pm Apr 11, 2007 2:20pm
As requested here are the USDJPY pivot points.
Attached Image
  • #3,033
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:23pm Apr 11, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
GEEESSS.. Sorry. I meant 235.50
233.50 is an excellent place to buy as it is right around the 61.8 fibo line of the move from 241.49 to 221.15 (approx levels). I would buy around this area but be vigilant of a break through and short expecting the 50 fibo line which is around 231.20 or so.
  • #3,034
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:29pm Apr 11, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting black06
I like your style ceasar. What's your take on tommorrow's GBP trade balance report's effect on this pair?
No idea... Will trade the outcome, whatever it is, unless nothing happens.

Overall, you can notice that USD is like hot potato now. No one is holding USD for more than a few hours, some times more than a few 5min candles.

So GU, EU downsides are well contained and sudden drops are providing good price to buy.

GU failed at 9814 today and hasn't try another push... This is not "cable", if you know what I mean. So whatever the news' outcome tomorrow, there is the chance of GU above 98, thus GJ above 236.

This scenario is in jeopardy if CAble breaches 9720s (M15 250EMA) during Asian session in case of a carry trade selloff for correction...

Until 9720 I'm a buyer. Below that I'll start scalping shorts for small pips. Same for GJ in case UJ stalls or falls.
  • #3,035
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:33pm Apr 11, 2007 2:33pm
Quoting G550
233.50 is an excellent place to buy as it is right around the 61.8 fibo line of the move from 241.49 to 221.15 (approx levels). I would buy around this area but be vigilant of a break through and short expecting the 50 fibo line which is around 231.20 or so.
Thanks for bringing up this fib... I was running a high 238, but wasn't confortable with it...

I was to buy at this level for days, but 233.80 held... Maybe next time...
  • #3,036
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:35pm Apr 11, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting G550
233.50 is an excellent place to buy as it is right around the 61.8 fibo line of the move from 241.49 to 221.15 (approx levels). I would buy around this area but be vigilant of a break through and short expecting the 50 fibo line which is around 231.20 or so.

Couldn't agree with you more! Just picked up two long lots @ 235.59.
I am addicted to chaos. That's why I trade forex.
  • #3,037
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:23pm Apr 11, 2007 3:23pm
Got this.... Don't know if it's trustworthy, but gives nice insights:

STERLING-YEN

RESIS. / SUPPORT Wed/Thu, Apr 12th STY-235.70 Wednesday

236.00/ST/235.00
237.00/MT/233.20
239.00/LT/228.80


"STg Yen is breaking up to the 236.45 target.
Altho it cd extend further, we advise using this raly to exit longs for, while 239 caps, there will be a risk of a correction not only to 233.20 again but possibly 228.80. Over 239 opens 241.50"
  • #3,038
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:54pm Apr 11, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting cesarnc
Got this.... Don't know if it's trustworthy, but gives nice insights:

STERLING-YEN

RESIS. / SUPPORT Wed/Thu, Apr 12th STY-235.70 Wednesday

236.00/ST/235.00
237.00/MT/233.20
239.00/LT/228.80


"STg Yen is breaking up to the 236.45 target.
Altho it cd extend further, we advise using this raly to exit longs for, while 239 caps, there will be a risk of a correction not only to 233.20 again but possibly 228.80. Over 239 opens 241.50"
After doing so well, I've been out watching. Not planning to get into anything, looking for a correction next.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #3,039
  • Apr 11, 2007 5:32pm Apr 11, 2007 5:32pm
I would advise staying out of GBPJPY right now. Critical period. I wouldn't buy again until 236.30 if this dip terminates. If it doesn't and we dive to 234 I would be thinking about swinging around and becoming a bear.

Comments? What do you ppl think would be a signal for a trend reversal?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,040
  • Apr 11, 2007 5:53pm Apr 11, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting Plutonite
I would advise staying out of GBPJPY right now. Critical period. I wouldn't buy again until 236.30 if this dip terminates. If it doesn't and we dive to 234 I would be thinking about swinging around and becoming a bear.

Comments? What do you ppl think would be a signal for a trend reversal?
I avoind using the term "trend reversal" for a trend to reverse depends on huge fundamentals to change overall market sentiment. Specially in what concerns to GJ, it would demand a strong sentiment of JPY long and GBP short simultaneously.

I prefer using "correction" to describe a possible down move, that would be inspired by long exits instead of broad and generalized Yen buyout and GBP selloff.

For correction I like to use fib retracements and a nice one I'm running is the low 222 - high 236. breach of 23 would open room for 38% fibo, which becomes a price to start bilding long positions (check price action at this level to find out if buyers are showing up and sellers are vanishing)

50% on the cards on breach of 38%. 61% and 78% looks way to far with the actual Yen short / GBP long sentiment.

swing above 233.00 (23% fib) is bullish.
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