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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,721
  • Edited 11:03pm Apr 23, 2009 10:50pm | Edited 11:03pm
Like fti says they own the market.
Even if they have to wait a year or so to test the yearly trend or only take a couple of months of retrace ( gro must work with the fed as he alluded to monthly rescues a few post back, (a little humor) to square I have to believe its money in the bank for them is my guess.
  • #6,722
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:03am Apr 24, 2009 2:03am
Quoting lilpip
Like fti says they own the market.
Even if they have to wait a year or so to test the yearly trend or only take a couple of months of retrace ( gro must work with the fed as he alluded to monthly rescues a few post back, (a little humor) to square I have to believe its money in the bank for them is my guess.
Hi lilpip

... pretty funny that no one here noticed a little ...when is realized loss?


Regards

  • #6,723
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:10am Apr 24, 2009 2:10am
Quoting Gro
Hi j-pax

PS I am waiting for a new pretty girl no more than 4min, but I waiting my girlfriend sometimes more than 2 hours
you are a lucky man in my eyes

your blotter looks amazing on the right side.... i cannot read it very wel because i am so used to oanda blotter.
it seems to me these are succesful attacks only. i will look at it after work, i have a feeling i can learn something by trying to understand it
i get lazy when i see so many numbers and don't even try.

have a good day.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,724
  • Apr 24, 2009 3:25am Apr 24, 2009 3:25am
Markets going parabolic.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,725
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:49am Apr 24, 2009 5:49am
Quoting j-pax
you are a lucky man in my eyes

your blotter looks amazing on the right side.... i cannot read it very wel because i am so used to oanda blotter.
it seems to me these are succesful attacks only. i will look at it after work, i have a feeling i can learn something by trying to understand it
i get lazy when i see so many numbers and don't even try.

have a good day.
Hi j-pax

I regret that I gave the thread blotter...mislead you this!
Forget!!! ... as a victory ... and failure never forget.


PS here you get only the "fishing net".
  • #6,726
  • Apr 24, 2009 9:43am Apr 24, 2009 9:43am
Ive been into up and down phases last 3 days ...mostly up during London and down during NY , but not bad, understanding NY slowly ...
looks like I have to forgo the month's profit ...

good weekend to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,727
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:14pm Apr 24, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting maheswara
Ive been into up and down phases last 3 days ...mostly up during London and down during NY , but not bad, understanding NY slowly ...
looks like I have to forgo the month's profit ...

good weekend to all
I hope you still keep it up.... anyhow just relax on weekend helps on coming weeks....

dont think much just enjoy...

V
  • #6,728
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:32pm Apr 24, 2009 2:32pm
Technical analysis is however more easy to understand and handle than the fundamental one.
  • #6,729
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:52pm Apr 24, 2009 2:52pm
Moving average is one of the most popular and easy to use tools available for doing technical analysis. It means the average price of a currency over a specified time period (the most common being 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200 days), used in order to spot pricing trends by flattening out large fluctuations. Moving average data is used to create charts that show whether a currency’s price is trending up or down. They can be used to track daily, weekly, or monthly patterns. Each new day's (or week's or month's) numbers are added to the average and the oldest numbers are dropped, thus, the average "moves" over time. In general, the shorter the time frame used, the more volatile the prices will appear, so, for example, 20 day moving average lines tend to move up and down more than 200 day moving average lines. There are four different types of moving averages: Simple (also referred to as Arithmetic), Exponential, Smoothed and Linear Weighted. Moving averages may be calculated for any sequential data set, including opening and closing prices, highest and lowest prices, trading volume or any other indicators. It is often the case when double moving averages are used.

You can read the rest at Moving Average.
  • #6,730
  • Edited 8:15pm Apr 24, 2009 7:13pm | Edited 8:15pm
Hi mikehf and demetrov

for me is satisfying - scout, terminal and "panic point"

Regards

  • #6,731
  • Apr 24, 2009 8:16pm Apr 24, 2009 8:16pm
picture instead of words
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rescue.JPG Size: 31 KB
  • #6,732
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:22pm Apr 24, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting fti
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and...
My trading Accounts say otherwise. TA has opened new doors of wealth for myself and others. I agree they are "lagging" and show only what "was" but ,together, with fundamentals , TA is the only way to go. Otherwise just toss a coin to determine your trade? Not always right but enough to profit,so far. If I could just find a Broker that is trustworthy this market would rock.
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #6,733
  • Edited 6:19am Apr 25, 2009 3:20am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting 8fingers
My trading Accounts say otherwise. TA has opened new doors of wealth for myself and others. I agree they are "lagging" and show only what "was" but ,together, with fundamentals , TA is the only way to go. Otherwise just toss a coin to determine your trade? Not always right but enough to profit,so far. If I could just find a Broker that is trustworthy this market would rock.
how i understand this: FTI says indicators are tools for trend following and he does use some. the problem he points at is that many use TA for predicting where price is goiing.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,734
  • Apr 25, 2009 10:53am Apr 25, 2009 10:53am
Quoting 8fingers
My trading Accounts say otherwise. TA has opened new doors of wealth for myself and others. I agree they are "lagging" and show only what "was" but ,together, with fundamentals , TA is the only way to go. Otherwise just toss a coin to determine your trade? Not always right but enough to profit,so far. If I could just find a Broker that is trustworthy this market would rock.
Hi 8fingers
I'm sorry but where to go general trend , me say small child.

Need confirmation or decision of the delayed indicator?


Hi j-pax
Yes FTI speak on the use of moving average but not the standard us.
Used only for monitoring the flow of.

Regards


  • #6,735
  • Apr 25, 2009 1:20pm Apr 25, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting Gro
Hi 8fingers
I'm sorry but where to go general trend , me say small child.

Need confirmation or decision of the delayed indicator?


Regards



"These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool" and "If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER" (fti quotes)

so FTI does not say they are useless, but they can be distracting and they are not used in his MO.

because he is a trained technical analyst (in his time without computers) he has calculated indicators and manualy made graphs so much that the markets health is more obvious to him then to most of us.

i have a sma on my longer TF. before i buy or sell in a trend, if price is far away from the sma, i trade with in smaller lot sizes or don't trade.

when i see this chart monday morning i would not short UsdJpy. but also not go against the trend... i don't want to be a gambler.

kind greetings, jacco
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,736
  • Apr 25, 2009 1:42pm Apr 25, 2009 1:42pm
i think i wil be looking at eurjpy monday morning.... bias short

greets
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,737
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:03pm Apr 25, 2009 6:03pm
analysation = speculation = complication
What is important - input or output?
Trend is the general movement in the market?
I monitoring my "panic point" or "threshold of pain".

Be patient and careful.

PS I rescue

  • #6,738
  • Edited 8:20am Apr 27, 2009 1:51am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting Gro
analysation = speculation = complication
What is important - input or output?
Trend is the general movement in the market?
I monitoring my "panic point" or "threshold of pain".

Be patient and careful.



PS I rescue

you are probably right about analysis thats why i replied to 8 fingers....
just tried to explain, the difference between analysation (predictingthe future) and observation with TA.

thank you for your support.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,739
  • Apr 27, 2009 9:50am Apr 27, 2009 9:50am
Quoting j-pax
i think i wil be looking at eurjpy monday morning.... bias short

greets
We stay away from cross pairs...


V
  • #6,740
  • Apr 27, 2009 11:46am Apr 27, 2009 11:46am
Quoting indianguyinny24
We stay away from cross pairs...


V
OK... i was looking for a clear chart example and was not aware all here trade major pairs only.

i am busy rereading so i will probably find out why you don't.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
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