big orders - what happens | Forex Factory

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big orders - what happens

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 11, 2007 10:24am Apr 11, 2007 10:24am
Hello

I wonder what will happen when: make a really really big market buy order.

Will that push the price up?
Can one then sell with a profit?

Or what I buy must somebody sell to me, so will the prices instead go down?
Or maybe my question should be how can one intentionally push up the price?

Thx
  • #2
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:29am Apr 11, 2007 10:29am
I think some of you guys do more dreaming than trading.

Are you really planing on placing a trade of a few 100 million lots. (probably not) More time is spend it seem like assuming what would happen if the impossible would happen.
  • #3
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:49am Apr 11, 2007 10:49am
Retail traders only make up something like 2 to 3 % of the forex market. You wouldn't be able to see a thing if we all bought at the same time even during slow times. This has been argued several times here and to be honest i don't know who has made the strongest case saying "yes it could happen." Anyone?
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #4
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:53am Apr 11, 2007 10:53am
the only way a retail trader could " effect" the market price would be if you were to trade at a null time (say between 2 and 3 GMT) and you had enough capital to take all of the liquidity off the market ( 20 million or so, is the lowest i have seen )

but it would be a good gameplan...
Keep it simple stoopid....
  • #5
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:59am Apr 11, 2007 10:59am
Here you go I have uploaded 1min video of the EUR from 11:40am EST
http://www.forexanonymous.com/1minEUR.avi

In this video you can a see several million be traded and not per say moving the mkt.

1 = 1mil or 10 standard 100,000 lots
  • #6
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:03am Apr 11, 2007 11:03am
Quoting turbokaos
Here you go I have uploaded 1min video of the EUR from 11:40am EST
http://www.forexanonymous.com/1minEUR.avi

In this video you can a see several million be traded and not per say moving the mkt.

1 = 1mil or 10 standard 100,000 lots
Hey turbo, any luck getting time and sales data out of odl? That would be more telling...
  • #7
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:07am Apr 11, 2007 11:07am
Quoting Darkstar
Hey turbo, any luck getting time and sales data out of odl? That would be more telling...
probably not
  • #8
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:15pm Apr 11, 2007 12:15pm
Dear gentlemen you don't need to convince me that one need a very big order to move the market.
However still I am interested to learn what will happen.

Thanks very much for the video, I will try to understand it.

Would it be possible to ask you to consider my actual questions, namely
1. what will happen
2. how to move the market (here I am probably wondering if one need to more than just make one big order)

Please consider my humble question.
  • #9
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:22pm Apr 11, 2007 12:22pm
1. what will happen

probably if this order is put in a non-volatile day, price will go up/down 1 pip, depends on the order position

2. how to move the market (here I am probably wondering if one need to more than just make one big order)

write some fake news involving us and china relations )
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #10
  • Edited 1:00pm Apr 11, 2007 12:35pm | Edited 1:00pm
Yes, the price moves. Can a SINGLE player move the market? Of course, everytime you buy or sell a micro-lot you actually move the market... but you move it maybe a 0.00000000001 EURUSD (if you get the ratio between that lot offer size and ur lot of course) in any direction... that is the same thing maybe to not moving the market at all.

In heavy liquidity hours to move A SINGLE PIP in EURUSD can take you up to 100 MILLION euros... if you have that amount, you could move A SINGLE PIP.

The great thing about forex is that you are not facing a TOTAL player that can shake the market wherever he/she wants... here the transactions are so divided and big... and are so different interests involved, that you can trust there is no CONSPIRACY of going against our insignificant lots...

It is said that forex moves TRILLIONS of dollars a day... well... that TRILLIONS of currencies changing hands make the forex market move... why does it move more one day than others? Trends and/or illiquidity i may say...

i guess that if we ALL @ FF decided to buy ALL AT THE SAME TIME in the same direction GBPUSD, we couldnt move it a single pip...

We are so small here in this vast ocean, that we can forget the rest of our lives to be a QUALITY player in forex... we are just here to profit the residuals of the big ones.. I am not ashamed.. i am not here to be the most rutheless player... i am here to make some bucks and to buy myself maybe un Chalet à Genève! hehe
  • #11
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:07pm Apr 11, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting iiivb
no CONSPIRACY of going against our insignificant lots...
first of all. my lots aren't insignificant. how dare you.

and yes it is there truly a despicable conspiracy whenever i lose a single pip in trade. no other reason could be justified. i have looked into this matter and that is the conclusion.

now i don't want to hear anything more about it.

and by the way, i am a shark. a shark in the sea!
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #12
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:12pm Apr 11, 2007 1:12pm
Yes of course Bravado Soros!

Quoting bravado
first of all. my lots aren't insignificant. how dare you.

and yes it is there truly a despicable conspiracy whenever i lose a single pip in trade. no other reason could be justified. i have looked into this matter and that is the conclusion.

now i don't want to hear anything more about it.

and by the way, i am a shark. a shark in the sea!
  • #13
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:39pm Apr 11, 2007 1:39pm
It is possible to move the price of a less traded currency pairs like USDHUF, USDCZK, USDSKK... But the spread is usually quite huge. But not all brokers offer such pairs. Obviously, you cannot move strong pairs like EURUSD with your "peanuts".

p777m
  • #14
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:52pm Apr 11, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting iiivb

i guess that if we ALL @ FF decided to buy ALL AT THE SAME TIME in the same direction GBPUSD, we couldnt move it a single pip...
I've suggested that before. I maxed out my account and clicked SELL. Apparently no one else here did though because the price went nowhere at first, and then straight up. I lost a ton of money.




jkhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif lol
  • #15
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:23pm Apr 11, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting s5804
Hello

I wonder what will happen when: make a really really big market buy order.

Will that push the price up?
Can one then sell with a profit?

Or what I buy must somebody sell to me, so will the prices instead go down?
Or maybe my question should be how can one intentionally push up the price?

Thx
The answer to your question is, if you put a really, really big BUY order, then you would start to fill all the sell orders out there, until no sellers were left at the current price. If you still have more to buy, the price would have to go up in order to bring sellers in. When the price moved up, sellers would come in, and as it moved up more, sell stops would be activated. If you are still buying, price would have to go up more to find people willing to sell. Once it moved up a few pips, then other traders would start buying, which would cause the move to accelerate.

At a time of low liquidity, 100's of millions might drive this. During NY or London hours, it might take several billion or more, probably 10's of billions (to move a major pair).
  • #16
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:40pm Apr 11, 2007 2:40pm
See Below:

Quoting s5804
Hello

I wonder what will happen when: make a really really big market buy order.

Will that push the price up? Yes
Can one then sell with a profit?
That depends. In general when you buy your consuming sell interest. If you do this and move to a higher level, when you sell you will be consuming buy interest. That would in effect move price back down.

If liquidity was perfectly distributed, you would move price back down to your entry price and break even. More then likely you would push price back below that level and take a loss.

But as I said, this is "in general". If you knew what you were doing you could make a damn fortune. But since you have neither the skill nor the capital, it's sort of a useless discussion.

Or what I buy must somebody sell to me, so will the prices instead go down? If your buying more then is available to sell at the current price, price will move UP, not down.

Or maybe my question should be how can one intentionally push up the price?
With a huge amount of capital and skill. How much is debatable, but even if you had the money without the proper understanding of market microstructure you would be quickly seperated from your money.

Thx
  • #17
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:46pm Apr 11, 2007 2:46pm
hehe.. the only one not viewing this threat is its creator!

lol
  • #18
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:54pm Apr 11, 2007 3:54pm
My favorite new quote- "you would start to fill all the sell orders out there, until no sellers were left at the current price." As much as this is true, we know that's never going to happen. This is forex not options. We need to quit with all this "what if" stuff.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #19
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:42pm Apr 11, 2007 4:42pm
BUT the market moves every minute by a couple of pips or 50 pips or whatever...

Who moves then?
  • #20
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:49pm Apr 11, 2007 4:49pm
You pay a huge 30 pip spread.
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