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ICCE. Bemac's Fib. Reverse Engineered

  • #281
  • Edited 5:54am Apr 22, 2009 4:59am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting jharteam
Traderathome:

Interesting observation of BB in relation to ICCE. According to your BB squeeze on this chart, how would you tack the box to define the range right now?

Have a good one
Jeff
I really would not know, Jeff, what with all the whipsawing this has been given. And THAT is exactly my point! That is where BBs can be of assistance, showing us a mathematical squeeze/pinch visual in the midst of all the chaos.....one that FEs can be applied to with results as effective as applying FEs to a range so clear a blind person could easily discern it. Bemac points to the process of intake, compression, combustion and exhaust. The BB squeeze is visually displaying the intake (coming into a squeeze, or channel, or "tunnel" as some would say), the compression (the pinch points at the end of the intake process), the combustion (the PA breakout of the BB, up or down) and the exhaust (where the PA finally rolls over at/near some FE level. The BB squeeze/pinch does not pick up all ranges that can result in a good breakout run. For example, after a BB run, as the PA rolls over, a new range can develop and a breakout there can result in the retrace, or strong "pullback" PA move.....all happening far removed from the next BB squeeze/pinch. So, it is not an all encompassing method. But, as Bemac said......another arrow in the quiver.

Hard pressed, I might draw the box as shown.......
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  • #282
  • Edited 7:00am Apr 22, 2009 5:35am | Edited 7:00am
EU M1 Chart: Here is example of one currently running. You can easily see the basic FE levels off the BB pinch coincide well with the PA.

Edit: Caught it just before it went too far off screen......nice example of COMPUSTION on the current leg.....new pinch, but old 424% target.....
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  • #283
  • Apr 22, 2009 6:12am Apr 22, 2009 6:12am
thanks for the illustration, I am not attempting to search for proof on your assertions; rather, I want to 'see' how others would tack a range when comparing to my own. I find that MOST people, who has been around long enough to know the real meaning of price actions, would have been able to pick a pretty good range; and the problem I personally found is that to define the 'length' of the range. I just wish we have a more uniformed and 'manageable' way of identifying the 'box'. Good observations all the same.

Have a good one
Jeff


Quoting traderathome
I really would not know, Jeff, what with all the whipsawing this has been given. And THAT is exactly my point! That is where BBs can be of assistance, showing us a mathematical squeeze/pinch visual in the midst of all the chaos.....one that FEs can be applied to with results as effective as applying FEs to a range so clear a blind person could easily discern it. Bemac points to the process of intake, compression, combustion and exhaust. The BB squeeze is visually displaying the intake (coming into a squeeze, or channel, or "tunnel" as some would...
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #284
  • Apr 22, 2009 7:13am Apr 22, 2009 7:13am
Quoting jharteam
thanks for the illustration, I am not attempting to search for proof on your assertions; rather, I want to 'see' how others would tack a range when comparing to my own. I find that MOST people, who has been around long enough to know the real meaning of price actions, would have been able to pick a pretty good range; and the problem I personally found is that to define the 'length' of the range. I just wish we have a more uniformed and 'manageable' way of identifying the 'box'. Good observations all the same.

Have a good one
Jeff
"...wish we have a more uniformed and 'manageable' way of identifying the 'box'."

Irradic PA helps keep the charts messy and the underlying truth from being obvious. Clear cut ranges can be discerned now and then, but when the market movers are out to obtain large positions in advance of a major move, they whipsaw it around making such a mess of the charts that NOTHING is clear. At times like that the BBs can be of some help.
  • #285
  • Edited 8:40am Apr 22, 2009 7:30am | Edited 8:40am
As regards the question "Where should the box be?", in this case, who knows! I have drawn a second box with the same top and bottom. From the looks of the PA, there was a breakout, pullback to retest, and now fives closes above the "top", in spite of the whipsawing. So, is that a valid "top" of a range? Or could the range be different and the PA still within it? I don't know. But the run out of the Bollinger band pinch point went to the 100% FE level, which imho validates at least the BB senario in this rugged PA environment. One could therefore use the BB pinch points as defining the range top and bottom in such turbulent times, and apply the ICCE there......

Edit: Second chart and PA popped to 162% FE level after mucho consolidation basing on the 89 sma. Onwards and upwards from here?
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  • #286
  • Apr 22, 2009 8:40am Apr 22, 2009 8:40am
Just a little update.
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EURUSD x 15 Min

Can you see the 'Pins'?
  • #287
  • Edited 9:14am Apr 22, 2009 8:53am | Edited 9:14am
EU H1: I am liking the "range" as defined by the std. Bollinger band on this chart. This is a very nicely defined pinch in the squeeze/tunnel. And the break is crossing up thru the 89 sma on this chart also....the bigger the TF where all this happens, the more substantial the run potentially can be. Someone might use ICCE to compare how this turns out. First pop hit the 100% FE level off the BB pinch points.

Edit: Update chart.....by the way, though this may be off the subject of ICCE, it is still very relative to the trade......there is a nice double bottom that was put in during all this chaos.
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  • #288
  • Edited 9:04am Apr 22, 2009 9:01am | Edited 9:04am
This looks like a Retrace to me.

Notice the effort that the Last Bar {currently another 'Pin' btw} took to Get Back in the Groove.

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Bugger.
  • #289
  • Edited 9:42am Apr 22, 2009 9:29am | Edited 9:42am
EU H1 Chart: Here is an ICCE way to look at it. Place top and bottoms as shown (range since hit bottom and then put in second bottom). You can see the 100% level coincides with the S&R area line (yellow), giving a reasonable first target in the 1.3090s......or, let's say the whole number 1.3100. True S&R is not the yellow line, but an area about it. Interesting to note that the BB pinch 662% FE level (original chart posted earlier) is 1.3099.......
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  • #290
  • Apr 22, 2009 9:37am Apr 22, 2009 9:37am
The sellers will be waiting up there to show who are the bosses.

Quoting Bemac
This looks like a Retrace to me.

Notice the effort that the Last Bar {currently another 'Pin' btw} took to Get Back in the Groove.

Attachment

Bugger.
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~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #291
  • Edited 10:31am Apr 22, 2009 9:44am | Edited 10:31am
Here is my latest contribution. How is that for confluences.
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  • #292
  • Apr 22, 2009 9:54am Apr 22, 2009 9:54am
EU H1 Chart: Using simple trend lines/channels, the first upwards crossing (of the mid-channel line) looks indeed to be in the 1.3090s. If PA proceeds northwards, the top channel could be reached somewhere between a price of 1.3335 down to 1.3265, depending on how long it takes.....and these prices are very difficult to predict because of the sloping lines and the unknown time factor. But even in an overall down trend, based on this channel, there could be 300 pips more upside to go........
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  • #293
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:01am Apr 22, 2009 10:01am
Quoting smjones
Here is my latest contribution. How is that for confluences.
That is great. But you have to know EXACTLY where to put the box. You can work the position out in time, as the PA helps with the positioning. But the longer it takes to get it right, the more trade movement is forfeit......

Is there any way to get the box exact height and width down pat early in the game.....? This seems to be a key question.

Or, is this being too short sighted? Is the goal here to EVENTUALLY get the box right, and its' exended patterns? And then trade off these far extended patterns well out into the future?
  • #294
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:09am Apr 22, 2009 10:09am
Quoting traderathome
That is great. But you have to know EXACTLY where to put the box. You can work the position out in time, as the PA helps with the positioning. But the longer it takes to get it right, the more trade movement is forfeit......

Is there any way to get the box exact height and width down pat early in the game.....? This seems to be a key question.
I traded this from 13:00 gmt on. I drew the box at 00:00 GMT. I knew exactly where to place the box and how long and how wide it should be.

A buy when price re-traced to the TOP and the a second buy when price hit the upper 50% line and re-traced and then exited at the upper trend line.

I used the time parameters I have talked about many times before of Apx 22:00 to 00:00 on EURUSD and then I counted back from the right side the same number of bars as the range.

I then came back and looked after I got up this morning and adjusted the box for the dominate cycle of 25 bars and then drew the remaining lines, all before at about 09:00 GMT

Edit:

I have only been testing this on EURUSD, I do not know how reliable it would be on any other pairs, but would think that there must be a similar range period that happens for any pair at a certain time of the day. It might be different for different pairs.
  • #295
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:10am Apr 22, 2009 10:10am
Indeed, the upside could be enormous, but as you mentioned, the -1.3090+ must be punched through decisively before there's any hope of any further up move.

Quoting traderathome
EU H1 Chart: Using simple trend lines/channels, the first upwards crossing (of the mid-channel line) looks indeed to be in the 1.3090s. If PA proceeds northwards, the top channel could be reached somewhere between a price of 1.3335 down to 1.3265, depending on how long it takes.....and these prices are very difficult to predict because of the sloping lines and the unknown time factor. But even in an overall down trend, based on this channel, there could be 300 pips more upside to go........
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #296
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:17am Apr 22, 2009 10:17am
Quoting smjones
I traded this from 13:00 gmt on. I drew the box at 00:00 GMT. I knew exactly where to place the box and how long and how wide it should be.

A buy when price re-traced to the TOP and the a second buy when price hit the upper 50% line and re-traced and then exited at the upper trend line.

I used the time parameters I have talked about many times before of Apx 22:00 to 00:00 on EURUSD and then I counted back from the right side the same number of bars as the range.

I then came back and looked after I got up this morning and adjusted the box...
It might help myself and others to better understand if you could show the chart TF interval somewhere on the chart. Is it H4, H1, M30......?????
.....anything to assist in more rapid comprehension of what you are doing. Perhaps even placing markers on the chart showing the aforementioned places of trade entry, etc.....
  • #297
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:22am Apr 22, 2009 10:22am
Same box form 10 days ago. Added in some of those groovy diagonal lines -


The confluences are powerful.

The recent bar came close to the 38.2% - missed by 30 pips, but formed a tradeable Pin Bar which touched the 1.4400 - a round number where a PPZ sits. Damn. Nothing but net.

What next? Well, it is bouncing off of that diagonal do-hickey right now... Have to remember that.

Bemac - Oh Great One - Anything to share yet on a step by step how to properly action what we see?
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #298
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:29am Apr 22, 2009 10:29am
Quoting traderathome
It might help myself and others to better understand if you could show the chart TF interval somewhere on the chart. Is it H4, H1, M30......?????
.....anything to assist in more rapid comprehension of what you are doing. Perhaps even placing markers on the chart showing the aforementioned places of trade entry, etc.....
Gosh I am sorry, I thought I had that on there. It is a 15 minute chart. Sorry about that I will post a new chart in a minute.

Edit, I update the chart in the above post.
  • #299
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:40am Apr 22, 2009 10:40am
Yeah, SMJONES, really appreciated if you will show all of us how you go about doing the 'box' again. I know that you have talk about that on your previous post, but I honestly don't quite understand your explanations. Regards

Have a good one
Jeff


Quoting smjones
Gosh I am sorry, I thought I had that on there. It is a 15 minute chart. Sorry about that I will post a new chart in a minute.

Edit, I update the chart in the above post.
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #300
  • Edited 1:20pm Apr 22, 2009 1:03pm | Edited 1:20pm
jharteam,

this might help you understand what smjones is saying.
edit: Actually, maybe not. It's more of a way to practice drawing a lot of range boxes. LOL.

Do you have the vertical period separator on you chart? If no, hit F8 select the Commons tab. check the box that says "Show period separators". This vertical line shows the start of every new "broker" day.

Look to the right of this line, you will usually see a period of ranging. Drop your box there. Draw your fibo lines, Fibo time cycles and diagonal channels.

Yes, I know these instructions doesn't solve the riddle of where the perfect top/bottom & left/right is. IMHO, I think you just have to draw a bunch of them and resize them from time to time. I personally use the line charts (thanks to whomever suggested this) to determine my top/bottom, then I switch back to candlesticks to refine the left/right.

If you draw range boxes using previous close times and draw all the corresponding lines, you will begin to see how the lines from previous days match the current days. Whether they be horizontal fiboline, timecycle lines or diagonal lines. When you see that you have this kind of confluence, you will have a stronger gut feeling that your range boxes are correct.

Somehow, past history has a way of playing itself out in the future.

I haven't used indies posted yet but I hope you can draw more than 1 fibo sequence. I just use the std fibo tool provided with mt4.

dee
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