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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #172,401
  • Apr 21, 2009 9:52pm Apr 21, 2009 9:52pm
Relative strenght in overbought area and MACD same see top 144.50 at best and will addd to short if it gets there
  • #172,402
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:02pm Apr 21, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting Fusion
Can one of the Gurus explain how NIKKEI and Cross/JPY are correlated? i.e. If NIKKEI is going to negative territories, does the cross/jpy's become bearish or it is the other way around?

Thank you.
I'm not a guru, but it doesn't take one to answer this. It doesn't always happen, but the accepted correlation is that Nikkei and the JPY crosses move in the same direction. It has to do with risk appetite and risk aversion. If the Nikkei isn't doing well risk aversion sets in and the JPY crosses move down (JPY strength). If the Nikkei is doing well then risk appetite increases and the JPY crosses rise (JPY weakness).
  • #172,403
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:10pm Apr 21, 2009 10:10pm
http://vimeo.com/groups/14842/videos/4205656

http://www.wptz.com/cnn-news/19239940/detail.html

[
  • #172,404
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:11pm Apr 21, 2009 10:11pm
to all the guys that are shorting or considering adding shorts: notice the hidden bullish divergence! also, keep in mind that g-j hit the lower edge of the ascending channel on daily/weekly chart.
i would favor longs at this moment, but i will only enter IF i see yesterday's high taken. until then, i'm flat.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_40min.gif Size: 25 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #172,405
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:18pm Apr 21, 2009 10:18pm
mktjong, thanks.
forexlion, thanks also! youre looking at a higher level TF; is it effective to use last month's high/close/low this late in the month when looking at a daily TF?
  • #172,406
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:25pm Apr 21, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I'm not a guru, but it doesn't take one to answer this. It doesn't always happen, but the accepted correlation is that Nikkei and the JPY crosses move in the same direction. It has to do with risk appetite and risk aversion. If the Nikkei isn't doing well risk aversion sets in and the JPY crosses move down (JPY strength). If the Nikkei is doing well then risk appetite increases and the JPY crosses rise (JPY weakness).
The reasoning behind this is to do with the relationship between equity prices and capital inflows/outflows. Traditionally the jpy has had the lowest interest rate of all the developed nations spurred since the crash of the nikkei. As a method to achieving superior returns investors usually borrowed from the yen in order to invest in currencies/equities etc where the yield was higher. The general consensus was that if the equity market was positive, it was a good time to leverage into it using the yen. In relation to FX this amounted to net outflows of the yen into other currencies of higher IR. This strategy became very popular after 2002 and was coined the "Carry trade" where investors gained the interest spread as well as capital gain on the declining yen.

On the flip side when equities were falling and sentiment was low, investors would usually cut their exposure to equities and therefore had to pay back their yen funded loans resulting in yen repatriation. During this crisis we've seen mass repatriations as the equity markets around the world collapsed upon itself.
  • #172,407
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:27pm Apr 21, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
here you go .....

these are the chart reasons .. see notes on chart.

also the rsx indie is somewhat high on 30 min indicating a possible reatracement . Nikkie will gap up ... but wonder if they will buy the bank have loads of money BS that was spouted today . So i am thinking gap and then gap fill , but will use the 15 min open range to determine that.


also from a murray math perspective we are right under the 6/8 this is a major reversal level

from a charting stand point I am favouring a retracement of some sort in Asia but we may get...

this one working out well so far .... not quiet to target 143.50 ... but maybe by London
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  • #172,408
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:32pm Apr 21, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting nonchalant
mktjong, thanks.
forexlion, thanks also! youre looking at a higher level TF; is it effective to use last month's high/close/low this late in the month when looking at a daily TF?
Sorry, I never use those.
  • #172,409
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:39pm Apr 21, 2009 10:39pm
Quoting Scrat
to all the guys that are shorting or considering adding shorts: notice the hidden bullish divergence! also, keep in mind that g-j hit the lower edge of the ascending channel on daily/weekly chart.
i would favor longs at this moment, but i will only enter IF i see yesterday's high taken. until then, i'm flat.

141.46 was the bottom of the trend line so it has room to go back and retest or at least move to 142.00 at which time a triangle is emerging which is going to force direction one way or the other
  • #172,410
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:42pm Apr 21, 2009 10:42pm
Target hit as I said earlier

here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=171388

and here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=171391

... right to the pip
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #172,411
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:46pm Apr 21, 2009 10:46pm
geppy could test 142.30 area in the next couple hours
Attached Image
  • #172,412
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:52pm Apr 21, 2009 10:52pm
Quoting Scrat
to all the guys that are shorting or considering adding shorts: notice the hidden bullish divergence! also, keep in mind that g-j hit the lower edge of the ascending channel on daily/weekly chart.
i would favor longs at this moment, but i will only enter IF i see yesterday's high taken. until then, i'm flat.
That's cool, but from the other perspective it made a 38,2 retracement forming a bear flag. If that 4hr Gann broken() then it go down, if bounces off it then meet 146...
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  • #172,413
  • Edited 10:58pm Apr 21, 2009 10:53pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting currencyexch
141.46 was the bottom of the trend line so it has room to go back and retest or at least move to 142.00 at which time a triangle is emerging which is going to force direction one way or the other
Am watcing back to my yesterday support@ 142.35....maybe am out at this level..

61.8% Fib look possible for 142.85 as what Arezab posted before..
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  • #172,414
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:54pm Apr 21, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting Scrat
to all the guys that are shorting or considering adding shorts: notice the hidden bullish divergence! also, keep in mind that g-j hit the lower edge of the ascending channel on daily/weekly chart.
i would favor longs at this moment, but i will only enter IF i see yesterday's high taken. until then, i'm flat.


i follow what u said and i have been expecting gj to touch 50 sma ..it finally happen i am buying deep here with 50 sl if triggered fine..bull flag in gj so those who are shorting should lock pips and watch out..news will fly gj now..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #172,415
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:55pm Apr 21, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting suntzu
geppy could test 142.30 area in the next couple hours
Not so fast, but from the volume view - no sign of the reversal yet... nice and easy fall, need to see London for certain direction determination.
  • #172,416
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:00pm Apr 21, 2009 11:00pm
this is all i expected for the bearish move today..right now i am in the favour of long but i need to wait for the close of 1 hr candle...i am not sure gj can drop more than 135 ..
let see trend is our friend let follow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #172,417
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:01pm Apr 21, 2009 11:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
nice charting .....

seems to be signs of selling on a 30 min chart ... may be reatrce down in asia to the vwap at about 143.50 zone , but will wait for Nikkei to open ..see if we get a gap and dump

150 pips seems to be favoured for asian moves

Attachment

Target hit 150 pips off 1st half ... stop set at +100 other half ...


IF we find support in the 143 zone then price will likely move back up to retest 145 zone , and depending on how bullish price action , 145 may even be broken.

there is a rounded top on 30 min off 145 , so this is the zone to break IF indexes go ripping up in London and next US session.

price is currently coming down to overlap with the 70 percentile of the volume of yesterdays session. 142.90 is key as this was the high volume pivot of yesterday (see chart an items noted vva , vwa , poc and lva in red ) . A break below this may open a move towards 140

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY3MIN16.png Size: 256 KB
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  • #172,418
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:06pm Apr 21, 2009 11:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Target hit 150 pips off 1st half ... stop set at +100 other half ...


IF we find support in the 143 zone then price will likely move back up to retest 145 zone , and depending on how...
that is the fast..i buy from the bottom with my sl..this will be safe and let it run..5sma still cross 14 sma for bullish move so i think we shall test 145 back and even break it..news for unemployment first news for wed market
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #172,419
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:10pm Apr 21, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting suntzu
geppy could test 142.30 area in the next couple hours
this made me stop and look 60 min ... did not see that TL ,

so we have a really nice downward channel as long as price remains under 145.

using symmetry of moves

147 to 141.5 = 550
up move 141.5 to 145 = 350
145 to 139.5 ? could be a possibility

just have to wait and see what London brings ..as i mentioned in last post 143 is critical , lots of wood to chop above us , look at the HV levels for last 5 days above price. ... each level there maybe sellers lurking

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY3MIN18.png Size: 255 KB
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  • #172,420
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:10pm Apr 21, 2009 11:10pm
mal - nice to see u posting more value as we're used to
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