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My "Holy S**t Moment"

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Apr 10, 2007 11:32am Apr 10, 2007 11:32am
I have been trading forex on and off for about 2 years. I have blown up account after account, switched brokers, tried every trading system, and EA under the sun only to be consistent with one thing: being on the wrong side of the trade.

Until a few weeks ago it never dawned on me what I was doing wrong - NOT TRADING WITH THE TREND. Holy Crap! No matter what system, methodology, model, EA, etc - that I use - I'm actually on the right side of the trade NOW! I've read tons of posts from some of the more senior members pontificating the very same thing - but it never clicked.

I know what you are thinking: Way to go captain obvious! To all of you who've said this time and time again. Thank you very much for the monotony!

HAppy Trading

fx_trader
I am addicted to chaos. That's why I trade forex.
you need a trend to make money whether you follow the herd or you fade the move.

i'm a trend follower so i follow the herd. A few trends in a year is all you need. Stress free trading
Working towards CME membership
Congratulations for the change of tactics fx_trader
I am glad you realized this. many will not and will keep blowing accounts. They try to pick the top and bottoms and you will lose about 80% of the time if not more. congrats and stick to your guns.
Hate to be the vinegar, but when you define what the "trend" is, please let me know..

because it seems so simple in concept, but it's not..
google:
Same here. Been hearing about The Trend on and on since the early days of trading but it had to pass a lot of time, sweat & money (not much fortunately) before really making the final click.
-soso
I'd love to follow the trend always. But....how do you know that the trend will continue? that it is not over? that it won't reverse?

I guess this is the $1M question, eh?:
Yes, it is 1M $ question.
I agree with Twoblink - what is the trend?
We all understand, that going with the trend is the way to go, but unless you can put it to use, the term remains useless.

Happy Trading

Bluefish
I have the answer, you ready for it? Drums roll... YOU DON'T CARE! This is the whole idea, the word trend itself speaks of a probability to move in the direction of the trend. For how long? Don't care again, just trail your position methodically, you'd be surprised how much the trend will give you at times.

Quoting alcastro
I'd love to follow the trend always. But....how do you know that the trend will continue? that it is not over? that it won't reverse?

I guess this is the $1M question, eh?:
-soso
maybe you guys need to pull your time frames out and look at the bigger picture. I know I will look at the 4 hr chart before entering. I know i can tell a trend from the 4 hr our even zoom out. a lot of people are fixed on the 15 minute time frame and sometimes smaller. Just a suggestion.
Knowing that you got to trade the trend, or even being able to spot the trend, is useless until you learn how to swing along the trend, which is not that easy. Like I said in the other thread, the theory of trend-trading is easy but putting it into practice is not.

That being said, I agree that trend-trading is the only way to make money in the markets in my opinion. All the rest is casino-material.
Read Jacko's posts he can tell you what the trend is on any chart even a five year old could understand.
Quoting bluemonkey
Read Jacko's posts he can tell you what the trend is on any chart even a five year old could understand.
Or better yet, do what Mr. Jacko says and get yourself a five year old assistant, who will do the trend reading on the chart for you.
Okay there could be completely different trends if you look at the

1hr
4hr
1day
1week

charts on a pair.

So which one do you use to find the trend?
Just simply trade...defining things will always have rebuttals. Believe in your concepts, do not sway, trade your signals, backtest. The more you analyse the harder it gets (imho). The chart is not a crystal ball, they gave u knowledge of what had happened. Your golden moment is not to define what will happen but managing matters of the current to determine your future.
Quoting turk87
Okay there could be completely different trends if you look at the

1hr
4hr
1day
1week

charts on a pair.

So which one do you use to find the trend?
Master Jacko answered this one before; I tried looking it up for you, but was unable to locate it.

Basically, open your chart up, look at the direction of the trend and trade. S&R levels should be different depending on the time frames. It is important to have a good number of bars, or candlesticks, showing. I believe Jacko recommended 300...
One last thing, if you open your 4 H chart for example and you don't know where the trend is going, ask a five year old...I think he emphasized this point a lot - it must be important.
I think, this is the quote from the MAN...


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=22


Quoting dunningduke
Master Jacko answered this one before; I tried looking it up for you, but was unable to locate it.

Basically, open your chart up, look at the direction of the trend and trade. S&R levels should be different depending on the time frames. It is important to have a good number of bars, or candlesticks, showing. I believe Jacko recommended 300...
One last thing, if you open your 4 H chart for example and you don't know where the trend is going, ask a five year old...I think he emphasized this point a lot - it must be important.
"The Trend"

OK, trying to define the trend is like trying to define love. Every person whoever walked this planet will have a different definition! That means that every person will disagree with everyone else!

That doesn't help very much does it? So what do I do about "trend"?

Here's my take on Trend ( and I expect everyone here to disagree, so dont expect me to reply to responses ).

The Trend is totally dependant on which time frame the trader uses ( I agree with Jacko here ). If this can be accepted as a "truth" then it stands to reason that there as many trends as there are time frames! So my conclusion is that "there are trends within trends", meaning of course, that a short term TF trend will not be necessarilly seen in a long term TF.

Wrapping this up, it seems that Jacko got it right in his post by defining TF first.
Good Trading to All ---- fairwind
My son is only 2. Whenever I hand him a printout of a chart, he eats it. I can't wait until he's five.
Quoting Dopey
My son is only 2. Whenever I hand him a printout of a chart, he eats it. I can't wait until he's five.
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