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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,641
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:47am Apr 17, 2009 4:47am
I am moving to Alpari-UK. NFA, pass tomorrow...!
  • #6,642
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:20am Apr 17, 2009 5:20am
Quoting Jairo
I am moving to Alpari-UK. NFA, pass tomorrow...!

... outflow of capital from the U.S. bank? What this implies ...?
  • #6,643
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:14am Apr 17, 2009 6:14am
Quoting Gro
... outflow of capital from the U.S. bank? What this implies ...?
I don't know if there will be a significant move. Probably not. This is only my personal choice. I don't like the new rules imposed by the NFA/CFTC. Compliance rule (a) is not that good, too. It still lets room for the brokers to charge their clients for market makers not honouring prices. I think these new rules are pure crap (maybe I am wrong, as always).
  • #6,644
  • Apr 18, 2009 1:31am Apr 18, 2009 1:31am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood,Green_David
mayby help?
(FTI)...

Hi, Gro:

Thanks for your reminder. It takes me more than one year and a lot of money for me to understand, accept and finally profit from these words.
  • #6,645
  • Apr 18, 2009 1:50am Apr 18, 2009 1:50am
Quoting MaMood
Hi David,

will send a real world example to you by PM a little later today
Do not want to disturb with that topic here in fti's thread ....

Finally I only want to say:
If there is a benefit beside the mental aspects of hedging or not depends on your broker only. I know what 'm talking about, because I'm useing it heavily

Regards,
MaMood
Hi, MaMood:

I haven't received your PMs until now. But, I really don't need it, since I do believe so called "hedging" in some retail platforms is really a crap! So maybe you shall save both our time.

As I said there is no difference between the so called "hedging" and close-out.

OK, suppose you have 1 lot long U/J openned @100.00, then price reaches to 101.00, two choices now:

1. You made "hedging" to open a short 1 lot @101.00 to lock in your profit. Then price goes down to 100, you close the short position with +100pips, and price 101.00 again you close the long position with +100 pips.

2. You just close the long position with +100 pips, and when price went down to 100.00 you open a new long position, when price goes up to 101.00, you closed the new one with +100 pips.

So tell me, what's the difference? If you "hedge" the position in loss, the result is the same.

P.S. Maybe Jairo can enlighten me also.
  • #6,646
  • Edited 6:14am Apr 18, 2009 3:48am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, MaMood:

I haven't received your PMs until now. But, I really don't need it, since I do believe so called "hedging" in some retail platforms is really a crap! So maybe you shall save both our time.

As I said there is no difference between the so called "hedging" and close-out.

OK, suppose you have 1 lot long U/J openned @100.00, then price reaches to 101.00, two choices now:

1. You made "hedging" to open a short 1 lot @101.00 to lock in your profit. Then price goes down to 100, you close the short position with +100pips, and price 101.00...
Hi Green_David
Sorry that I answer.
... and where are the strategic options "go with the flow"?!?

"close" is not the same as "hedging" and the opportunity to respond quickly to flow.The opposite is the estimation PREDICTION = HOPE

Regards

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  • #6,647
  • Apr 18, 2009 4:31am Apr 18, 2009 4:31am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, MaMood:

I haven't received your PMs until now. But, I really don't need it, since I do believe so called "hedging" in some retail platforms is really a crap! So maybe you shall save both our time.

As I said there is no difference between the so called "hedging" and close-out.

OK, suppose you have 1 lot long U/J openned @100.00, then price reaches to 101.00, two choices now:

1. You made "hedging" to open a short 1 lot @101.00 to lock in your profit. Then price goes down to 100, you close the short position with +100pips, and price...
Hi Green_David,

Your example was great. You are right. The result is the same. The difference (for me and my procedures) is just this: it is much simpler to "hedge". Have you ever tried to code this maneuver? Have you ever wondered the intricacies that may arise if the market doesn't behave so well and leads you into complicated multi-hedge positions? Manually, you can't handle this. But computers can. I have done this. It has doubled my account in 4 months. Then came a big hit. The strategy's fault? No! Simply market risk. We are all subject to risk all the time. Guess how I managed to save the account? "Hedging"!! Taking more of my own poison.

To sum up, it is the same thing. It is your choice. If you don't think in individual trades, but in the whole sequence, until you end a "cycle", it is much simpler to keep track of the mess "hedging".
  • #6,648
  • Apr 18, 2009 6:43am Apr 18, 2009 6:43am
Hi David

... yet the question which concerns the strategy: I can close "hedge" the position in BE?


Regards

  • #6,649
  • Apr 18, 2009 10:51am Apr 18, 2009 10:51am
I am looking at the old posts and it seems like FTI is hedging in order to close a position or lessen the load !
  • #6,650
  • Apr 18, 2009 10:57am Apr 18, 2009 10:57am
Quoting Marlon
I am looking at the old posts and it seems like FTI is hedging in order to close a position or lessen the load !
he was hedging on a different pair. that is not the same.

no real broker does this alleged "hedging" stuff.

if you are long 8 lots and want to go short 2 lots you will be left with 6 lots long and that's it.

let's not argue about it. if this type of "hedging" does help you then use it, if doesn't then don't. let's not get religious about it.
  • #6,651
  • Apr 18, 2009 11:16am Apr 18, 2009 11:16am
Quoting piccolo
he was hedging on a different pair. that is not the same.

no real broker does this alleged "hedging" stuff.

if you are long 8 lots and want to go short 2 lots you will be left with 6 lots long and that's it.

let's not argue about it. if this type of "hedging" does help you then use it, if doesn't then don't. let's not get religious about it.
Hi piccolo

... with what you write I agree.


"Strategy, no religion".

  • #6,652
  • Apr 18, 2009 11:22am Apr 18, 2009 11:22am
Quoting Marlon
I am looking at the old posts and it seems like FTI is hedging in order to close a position or lessen the load !
Hi Marlon

You can highlight this old post?

Thank you.

Regards

  • #6,653
  • Apr 18, 2009 11:55am Apr 18, 2009 11:55am
Quoting fti
bot 1 x13018
bot 1x 15
bot 2x 18
sold 2x 12997
sold 1x95
bot 1x 90
bot 2x68
bot 3x 79

net long 7
Please correct me if I am wrong ! I am not trying to argue with no one just trying to get it correct ! Thanks !
  • #6,654
  • Apr 18, 2009 12:06pm Apr 18, 2009 12:06pm
1+1+2-2-1(left with scout)+1+2+3(6+scout)=7

This is not hedging, just closing positions. He was 4 long and the -2 and -1 closed 3 of them and then went long another 6. This is the traditional bro-ker method.
  • #6,655
  • Apr 18, 2009 12:26pm Apr 18, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting fti

Actually the process is known as internal book matching of trades. Which is how all spot fx deals are blotted.

regards
Above refers to trading in one direction and buying or selling in the opposite direction to close positions.
  • #6,656
  • Apr 18, 2009 12:31pm Apr 18, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting Zoran
1+1+2-2-1(left with scout)+1+2+3(6+scout)=7

This is not hedging, just closing positions. He was 4 long and the -2 and -1 closed 3 of them and then went long another 6. This is the traditional bro-ker method.
Hi Zoran

Thanks for the explanation.

Regards

  • #6,657
  • Apr 18, 2009 12:31pm Apr 18, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran
MT4 and FXCM which I had tried is lock on to order to order liquadition, very cumbersome blotting. but the chartings good.
FYI, Click on > to read original post for more information.
  • #6,658
  • Apr 18, 2009 12:34pm Apr 18, 2009 12:34pm
Now it's clear....I am assuming the broker closes the position as soon as you enter reverse order !
  • #6,659
  • Apr 19, 2009 3:41am Apr 19, 2009 3:41am
First in first out will disrupt a wide array of strategies, including rescues (basic rescue is last in first out, isn't it?). Many players use cost averaging. I think people should go to court to stop this insanity (or dishonesty?). Or move funds away. These ignorants (or swindlers?) don't have a clue as to what trading is about and try to tell us what is good and what is not. Have you read the NFA reasoning? The collection of opinions of broker representatives? One of these is true: or they are completely in the dark or they received money to make this ridiculous rule. Life will become tougher for the retail trader (good for the market makers). There is some untold story behind this. I use to get fun from conspiracy theories but this goes beyond any possibility of preserving good faith.
  • #6,660
  • Apr 19, 2009 4:33am Apr 19, 2009 4:33am
What NFA rule are you guys talking about?
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