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Silent Service Method

  • #1,101
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:05pm Apr 14, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
You might choose to ignore those green lines. Salmon because I was concerned about the sexuality implications of labeling them pink.

The lines are andrews pitchforks but you could use any parallel channel ... its an alternative to straight trendlines ... which I don't like because I've found that the trend line will often break while the parallel channel doesn't. Trend lines sort of say "the price will respect this supply area below price as it works its way up" while channels say "price is travelling up in a channel and the upper edge and...
Ok, thanks for clearing that up. Doing ok with what I'm doing at the mo thanks but I like your analysis and thinking behind your posts and one can always learn more.
  • #1,102
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:34pm Apr 14, 2009 11:34pm
This is my interpretation of usdjpy (for what it's worth) and the trades I have open at the moment. (as you can see all minimum volume but I am still learning).

Usdjpy has been trending upwards, a retrace of the large move down on the weekly chart. On the face of it it looks as though this could go all the way down but I'm tempted to wait to see it break that upwards trendline before I call it a short. If it does test 101 another time it will also be nearer that downwards trendline above and the 61.8 fib level and in fact where the 3 possible resistance levels meet. Confluence of resistance. If it breaks below that bottom trendline though, I'm shorting.

What does anyone else think of this analysis?

The other trades are eurgbp- I shorted this at 9400 and took some profit but am still too amateur to hold on to a trade properly so I closed it too early. Hindsight tells me I should've just let it ride but I managed to re-enter not far off 90 and I'm thinking it's got a way to drop yet. Another couple of days and I'm moving to BE.

Eurusd- Held below 1.3350 weekly resistance and looks bearish longer term.

Audcad- Formed a nice double top at 8950 and closed below 88.

Audusd- Looks like a false breakout of 7250. It's still a possibility that it will test that level again though so not sure whether to get to BE and take my chances or wait and see and take the loss if it does reverse upwards. CW's comments of a few days ago helped push me towards a short too.

By the way, all of these trades are entered near enough to the end of the daily candle uk time and using the principles I learnt on this thread which is why I am posting all this.

I would be interested in seeing what trades everyone else has open and their analysis behind them. I am definitely learning a hell of a lot from this thread but could do with as many real world examples as I can get.

I hope CW doesn't mind me posting this as a learning tool for me and hopefully some others?
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  • #1,103
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:26am Apr 15, 2009 4:26am
tazzam

I think you should delete your above post
Regards
  • #1,104
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:31am Apr 15, 2009 4:31am
not sure why but fine with me
  • #1,105
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:43am Apr 15, 2009 4:43am
Nothing wrong with the post itself but it was HUGE!

Might be best to only post specific trades with charts that others can learn something from?
  • #1,106
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:44am Apr 15, 2009 7:44am
Quoting hel13rock
This is my interpretation of usdjpy (for what it's worth) and the trades I have open at the moment. (as you can see all minimum volume but I am still learning).

Usdjpy has been trending upwards, a retrace of the large move down on the weekly chart. On the face of it it looks as though this could go all the way down but I'm tempted to wait to see it break that upwards trendline before I call it a short. If it does test 101 another time it will also be nearer that downwards trendline above and the 61.8 fib level and in fact where the 3 possible...

Personally, I would have shorted at 101 if I were inclined to. Also, I would have been watching the 99 area for support. Since it went below, I would have been moving stops to b/e by now, if not a little lower.

It would have only been one trade for me.
  • #1,107
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:49am Apr 15, 2009 7:49am
Quoting clockwork71
Personally, I would have shorted at 101 if I were inclined to. Also, I would have been watching the 99 area for support. Since it went below, I would have been moving stops to b/e by now, if not a little lower.

It would have only been one trade for me.
Todays PA (so far) is showing 99 holding as support.

Would you have been inclined to take that trade?
  • #1,108
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:51am Apr 15, 2009 7:51am
I know I keep harping on this, but it's only because it's so important.

You need to have a couple of reasons to enter a trade.

I always ask a few questions before I enter a trade:

 

  1. Is this at an "area". A S/R line?
  2. Is there some kind of confirming Price Action? (Bar shape, etc.)
  3. Any confluence?
  4. Trend or Counter-trend?
  5. Where do I expect this to go if it works out?
  6. When is this trade no longer valid?
  7. Am I willing to accept this risk?

I don't always feel like the risk is worth it, for whatever reason. There are times when I just get "spooked" or whatever. I can't explain it, but what I do know is that if I am not comfortable, I am going to screw this trade up sooner or later. I will take profits way too early. Or take a loss when I didn't need to. Either way, it's no fun.

I suggest making your own checklist, and putting right next to your monitor. You will be surprised how much it will help your trading.

CW

  • #1,109
  • Apr 15, 2009 9:00am Apr 15, 2009 9:00am
Hi ClockWork,

I am monitoring Ucad and now waiting patiently for the set up

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  • #1,110
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:40pm Apr 15, 2009 6:40pm
This is the charts and observations of the CAD triangle that broke down....
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  • #1,111
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:43pm Apr 15, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting hartnet
Hi ClockWork,

I am monitoring Ucad and now waiting patiently for the set up

Attachment

There you go. It's about waiting guys.
  • #1,112
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:24am Apr 16, 2009 7:24am
Can't post a chart right now, but I was wondering if you have looked at what is forming with the AUD/NZD. I have a strong S/R area bracketed around 1.2640 on the weekly bars, and the current price on the 4 hr bars has tested this level and formed three consecutive interesting bars that can't break through. None of them are considered 'classic' pin bars, but it is a pattern I haven't seen many times.

Thoughts? Thanks bud.
"60% of the time it works...every time"
  • #1,113
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:36am Apr 16, 2009 7:36am
Here is my take on the G/U Not sure if it's 100% right, I suppose at the end of the day nothing is right or wrong in Forex. It was how I perceived it I guess. I entered because 2 x 4 Hour bars which makes 8H would have figured nicely for a Pin Bar. I then had a 50% retracement sell limit order on it as well I apologies if my interpretation is not correct, I just thought I'd throw this in and see what CW has to say about it. Btw, I've been following for a while, I love what you have presented and I have learned a lot from you CW, thanks mate!
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  • #1,114
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:47am Apr 16, 2009 7:47am
Quoting VitaminBeer
Here is my take on the G/U...
I am not Chris, but IMO a "blind" entry via a sell limit at the 50% isn't too great an idea.

The logic is correct ofcaorse, but you need some bar confirmation around the 50 fib to feel confident abt going short on the pullback. Don't forget that this is already a more aggressive approach compared to the simple "playing the break of the low/high" strategey...on top of this if you go for a blind entry then you're being over-aggressive.

Problem is a blind retrace entry will never let you elude a failed setup.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #1,115
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:54am Apr 16, 2009 7:54am
Quoting ghous
I am not Chris, but IMO a "blind" entry via a sell limit at the 50% isn't too great an idea.

The logic is correct ofcaorse, but you need some bar confirmation around the 50 fib to feel confident abt going short on the pullback. Don't forget that this is already a more aggressive approach compared to the simple "playing the break of the low/high" strategey...on top of this if you go for a blind entry then you're being over-aggressive.

Problem is a blind retrace entry will never let you elude a failed setup.

Regards,
Ghous.
Thanks Ghous for your input. Well the only reason I put the 50% order in, is since I've been following J16 I am sure he talks about putting a order in at a 50% retracement of a pin bar to reduce the stop loss.

I am guessing a more conservative approach would have been to wait until price goes back up to the 1.49500 area to see if it acts as resistance again and then look for PA that way (Please correct me if I'm mistaken, I just want to make sure that I have that right!). I was fairly convinced when I saw the 8H Pin bar, but I dunno, let's see how it plays out shall we, speaking of going back to the 4950 area it's heading that way now.. maybe it will bounce again or go straight through it, it's kind of hard to say isn't it. I suppose this is where you would stay out until you were 100% certain

Still learning...
  • #1,116
  • Apr 16, 2009 8:43am Apr 16, 2009 8:43am
Thanks for sharing, clockworks! You have a very clear wording and I like what you're doing here. Keep it up!
  • #1,117
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:31am Apr 16, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Xaron
Thanks for sharing, clockworks! You have a very clear wording and I like what you're doing here. Keep it up!
No problem, unless you are a Bayern Munchen fan, then you gotta go!
  • #1,118
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:33am Apr 16, 2009 9:33am
Quoting slade15342
Can't post a chart right now, but I was wondering if you have looked at what is forming with the AUD/NZD. I have a strong S/R area bracketed around 1.2640 on the weekly bars, and the current price on the 4 hr bars has tested this level and formed three consecutive interesting bars that can't break through. None of them are considered 'classic' pin bars, but it is a pattern I haven't seen many times.

Thoughts? Thanks bud.

Yeah I have been watching that one myself. Here's my thought on that pair though.....it's more of a "relative strength" pair for me. It tells me how each one is going to do against the USD.....if AUD looks weak against NZD, and they both are setting up for shorts against the USD.....

Then I am looking to short AUD/USD if that made sense.
  • #1,119
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:35am Apr 16, 2009 9:35am
Quoting VitaminBeer
Thanks Ghous for your input. Well the only reason I put the 50% order in, is since I've been following J16 I am sure he talks about putting a order in at a 50% retracement of a pin bar to reduce the stop loss.

I am guessing a more conservative approach would have been to wait until price goes back up to the 1.49500 area to see if it acts as resistance again and then look for PA that way (Please correct me if I'm mistaken, I just want to make sure that I have that right!). I was fairly convinced when I saw the 8H Pin bar, but I dunno, let's see...

I agree as well. It's a little more aggressive to enter on a pullback blindly, but as long as you accept your risk, why not?

I would still have stops above that "8 hr pin", to make sure you don't get whipped out, and that it's a real move of sorts.

Great name by the way.
  • #1,120
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:42am Apr 16, 2009 9:42am
Quoting clockwork71
No problem, unless you are a Bayern Munchen fan, then you gotta go!
Bah!
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