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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #170,881
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:23am Apr 15, 2009 3:23am
Quoting boxingislife
145.70s is a strong support
we tested it so many times and no break yet
its weird how bearish people are
if 145.70 is not taken out expect the beast to at least try 149 in the short term and 150+ soon after
day traders and scalpers ... not swing traders
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #170,882
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:31am Apr 15, 2009 3:31am
Quoting currencyexch
Are you saying the cuurent 1.4722 is a head fake north and that the downside pressure to 1.4500 is still there? What's you top side guestimate before she drops?
Depends on 145.50 if market breaks this level strongly then to be honest I don't expect a new high unless something exotic happens in the market (%1) but PA on H4 shows right now that this area is tough enough to push price higher.

Now If the current H4 candle closes around here this could be a sign of bullish continuation or bounce off a tough support from PA perspective. In order to see a new high (+151.40) I will wait to see if price closes above 149.20 - 30 successfully or not.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #170,883
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:33am Apr 15, 2009 3:33am
Quoting pearsonfx
Trade the facts, don't bias yourself.

The trend is bullish, stay bullish until the support gives way. Daily candle close under would be added confirmation for sells.

Just my two cents.
Where then is a good entry to go long?
thanks
  • #170,884
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:44am Apr 15, 2009 3:44am
I put my buy position @1.1531 on UCHF
my plan is 100 pips t'day

How about you guys?
  • #170,885
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:45am Apr 15, 2009 3:45am
UBS posts 1.7 billion Q1 loss.
DJ Stoxx index spikes upwards pulling all the yen carries up

GBP DCLG HPI y/y came out much worse than expected causing Pound to spike up against all the majors.
  • #170,886
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:46am Apr 15, 2009 3:46am
Quoting currencyexch
Where then is a good entry to go long?
thanks
You kind of missed it....146.00/15 was a great entry on a retest of 145.78 support

This of course was the best place to go long with the tightest stoploss.

Now you should be looking for a break of 149.25, or if you aggressive take a look at 148.40.

I look at the swing highs/lows as well as the support/resistance that the market determines as important to determine my stoploss.

There were two separate attempts at the 145.78 low today, but we are nearly 200 pips higher than that with two very bullish hourly candles....if you're not in a trade already, and I was your coach, I would bench you, theres no point in buying the top in the middle of a range.
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #170,887
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:47am Apr 15, 2009 3:47am
Quoting arezab
Now If the current H4 candle closes around here this could be a sign of bullish continuation or bounce off a tough support from PA perspective. In order to see a new high (+151.40) I will wait to see if price closes above 149.20 - 30 successfully or not.
GI'm still learning here so given the trend is up, however looking at the overnight low and the recent high of 1.4927 taking the fib numbers the 50% level would be 1.4800 which would indicate a short at that level which is coming up here shortly, isn;t this a logical analysis or does the uptrend squash that thinking since perhaps the 1.4572 was just a correction?
  • #170,888
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:49am Apr 15, 2009 3:49am
Actually the 50% fib would be 1.4757 not 1.4800
  • #170,889
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:51am Apr 15, 2009 3:51am
Quoting Eulogy
UBS posts 1.7 billion Q1 loss.
DJ Stoxx index spikes upwards pulling all the yen carries up

GBP DCLG HPI y/y came out much worse than expected causing Pound to spike up against all the majors.
Very strange PA this morning. 200 pips in no time at all.
  • #170,890
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:54am Apr 15, 2009 3:54am
Quoting pearsonfx
You kind of missed it....146.00/15 was a great entry on a retest of 145.78 support
you're not in a trade already, and I was your coach, I would bench you, theres no point in buying the top in the middle of a range.
Thanks I agree as I've been whacked enough trying to chase a market
  • #170,891
  • Edited 4:05am Apr 15, 2009 3:54am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting Piters
lol, bro, i closed everything.. :

YM on 4h ema [7825]
ay is on Daily gann [70.40]
GY is on our OLD friend [146.30]
UY is on weekly 5sma [98.50]
==============================
I think we are Up to some retracment UP,, [maybe im wrong] and I will recalculate things in London after the retracement is Over..!

so, no GBPCHF position for me Right now...

Nice.... all pairs bounced exactly the same time and from same levels.. let see how PA will react on 148.50 [GY].. we may bounce back from there

cheers guys.. cya later
  • #170,892
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:55am Apr 15, 2009 3:55am
Quoting currencyexch
GI'm still learning here so given the trend is up, however looking at the overnight low and the recent high of 1.4927 taking the fib numbers the 50% level would be 1.4800 which would indicate a short at that level which is coming up here shortly, isn;t this a logical analysis or does the uptrend squash that thinking since perhaps the 1.4572 was just a correction?
Dude nothing is %100 clear and nobody is sure about what will happen, if we were only 1 day of FX market's movement would be enough for everybody .

We are all only predicting the market movement to some extent. Let's wait and see what happens.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #170,893
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:00am Apr 15, 2009 4:00am
I missed my order to go long at 1.4585....their is now way I can buy it up here....but I would like to know where the pull back will be to get long on this pair ?
  • #170,894
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:04am Apr 15, 2009 4:04am
Karmo patience pills works well !!. Used up almost 20% margin.
  • #170,895
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:07am Apr 15, 2009 4:07am
Quoting Piters
Nice.... all pairs bounced exactly the same time and from same levels.. let see how PA will react on 148.50 [GY].. we may bounce back from there

cheers guys.. cya later
Hi Piters,
May I ask why 148.5?
Just trying to learn
Thanks
  • #170,896
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:13am Apr 15, 2009 4:13am
Were dose the pull back stop....what is the buy area that everyone is looking to get back long again on this for the next move up ???
  • #170,897
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:14am Apr 15, 2009 4:14am
Quoting dzackfx
Karmo patience pills works well !!. Used up almost 20% margin.
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/facepalm.jpg

Money Management is key....
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #170,898
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:16am Apr 15, 2009 4:16am
Quoting marcb
Hi Piters,
May I ask why 148.5?
Just trying to learn
Thanks
I have a key trendline there (chart). Also, 4H gann is at around 148.30, so a close above 148.60 would make 150/151 possible. Price needs to stay above the daily pivot (147.87) for the bull to continue. Price closes back below 147.87, it's possible we could pull back to 145.80 again and range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #170,899
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:21am Apr 15, 2009 4:21am
Fib numbers worked perfect but didn't have enough faith to short it with such a rocket ship move of 200 pips, we'll see hoe much it retraces before testing 1.4850
  • #170,900
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:23am Apr 15, 2009 4:23am
Quoting pearsonfx
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/facepalm.jpg

Money Management is key....

Thanks for the advise ... I'm back to normal now .. with a lot of hair. BTW Great analysis! .. I went long almost similar to price range you stated in your analysis. Near the daily gann.
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