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  • #241
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:15pm Apr 8, 2007 8:15pm
I'm practicing with the strategy. Is this a good setup?
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  • #242
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:40pm Apr 8, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting meltri
I'm practicing with the strategy. Is this a good setup?
Not the best. It's ok but better to wait for another cycle where the 15/30 get back to the top and see where things are at.

The price is really flat at the moment so I would just wait. Given the holiday weekend things are probably rather thin. Normally I would trade that set up...just not on a day like today.
  • #243
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:50pm Apr 8, 2007 8:50pm
Thanks Spudfyre. That's probably why I'm -20 pips now.
Very nice system you have here and thank you so much for sharing.

Do you know the best time to trade this method of yours in EST time?
  • #244
  • Apr 9, 2007 1:04am Apr 9, 2007 1:04am
Hi Skyline,

Can you please add a pop-up and email alert to your indicator so I can
attach it to all currency? The rules are, send an alert when the 15M, 30M,
1HR and 4HR are all in overbought or oversold territory.

Thanks!

Quoting skyline
I'm reading with interest this journal and what to thank SpudFyre for his great ability to teach difficult insight in a really simple way easily to understand. I hope that he will continue to stay here for a long time to help us to improve our trading
Moreover I'd like to give my little contribute here, sharing this cool Stochastic indicator that give a whole overview about all different stoch timeframe in a single window , hope you like it

Cya,
Skyline
  • #245
  • Apr 9, 2007 4:34am Apr 9, 2007 4:34am
Quoting meltri
Hi Skyline,

Can you please add a pop-up and email alert to your indicator so I can
attach it to all currency? The rules are, send an alert when the 15M, 30M,
1HR and 4HR are all in overbought or oversold territory.

Thanks!
Hi meltri, that's not my indicator I found it over internet
  • #246
  • Apr 9, 2007 5:51am Apr 9, 2007 5:51am
Quoting meltri
Thanks Spudfyre. That's probably why I'm -20 pips now.
Very nice system you have here and thank you so much for sharing.

Do you know the best time to trade this method of yours in EST time?
Best time is usually 4 am to noon EST. Worst time is 5- 7 pm EST
  • #247
  • Apr 9, 2007 7:05am Apr 9, 2007 7:05am
Quoting meltri
Hi Skyline,

Can you please add a pop-up and email alert to your indicator so I can
attach it to all currency? The rules are, send an alert when the 15M, 30M,
1HR and 4HR are all in overbought or oversold territory.

Thanks!
I've got this put together in a separate indicator, but the compiler isn't running today on Interbank, so I can't compile or test. Will post when finished.
  • #248
  • Apr 9, 2007 7:44am Apr 9, 2007 7:44am
Quoting Spudfyre
Everything you say is absolutely correct about trends. This is why I say that we use the 4H to look for our trade to start. We want to enter in a strong trend.

However, what happens to the next candle of the 4H is soley based on what the 15M/30M/1H movements do. The 4H will not dictate how the lower time frames are going to move next. The big boys don't trade simultaneously.

The 4H is a constant zig zag on it's way down and up and few small traders can ride the highs and lows from bottom to top.

So, what we are trying to do is enter on the 4H strong trend. Then we want to ride that trend and be "safe" doing it so we win.

With the other time frames in sync we can progress down the line 15-30-1H growing into the strong trend or from my point of view continuing to build the trend.......but we also know that as we move down the line the shorter time frames will be reversing within the 4H trend as the stochastic expires and turns at the peak of it's current cycle.

So what we want to avoid is riding a 1H reversal move that wipes out all our pip profit or takes us into a loss....which we are in far greater risk of when the short frames are moving against the long term trend. Again it is the short term that will be affected by the short term moves...not the long trend.

As such, we know that if we went long in the 4H and the 15/30/1H all go long then we are pretty well assurred of making pips.

If on the other hand all the time frames reverse...that reversal is not going to start at the 4H...it will start at the 15M and then progress to the 30M and then the 1H...eventually showing it's ugly side on the 4H. Keep in context I am working within our trade.
What I am saying is no it is not.
Because the 15 candles deals with small day traders 1% of the market maybe
& the 4 hour deals with big treader -25% market maybe
& the big traders never look @ 15 candles they could care less

they are like lions & we mice" ..
the lions never look to the mice...too small
but believe me the mice look to the loins.

if you are using the 4 hour chart for trend you need a cover chart above it
the day chart (75% of the market or more)
the 4 hour chart can not turn till the day traders have taken proffit not the 15 min traders.
the market always moves from top down because the top is where the money is
- the day chart is the banks & countries & as long as they are pushing a pair one way
it must go that way.
the fund traders on the 4 hour chart can not move the trend in the opp way
(they can push it a 10-20 pips for stop hunting & maybe maybe 40-50 pips for option)
but in the end it must come back to the day trend - till the really big boys want it to change & that can only happen after they have made proffit & got out... (you see them get out with what I call really big tails ) & they do that through the news events esp interest Rate news events.

15 min chart & the 4 hour chart are diff worlds
the 4 hour chart world does effect 15 min world a great deal
But the 15 min charts world does not effect the 4 hour chart world at all
let alone the day world chart.
all 3 are in differant worlds.

& that is why it might be good to want to see what the 3 worlds are doing.
the bankers - the funds - & the day traders


just a thought - got to go
  • #249
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:00am Apr 9, 2007 8:00am
Quoting TEB63
- the day chart is the banks & countries & as long as they are pushing a pair one way
it must go that way.

TEB, your whole post is great info, makes sense.

However, I think all that Spud is saying, as I understand it, is that the daily chart isn't going anywhere the 4H didn't go. Smaller, short term moves add up to bigger, long term moves. Short term moves are easier to see on short term charts.

We want to trade off the longer term, but we don't want short-term whipsaws to take our profits.
  • #250
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:09am Apr 9, 2007 8:09am
OK, this seems to be working. Had to download and reinstall Interbank to get the compiler working.

Here's what it does.

Attach to any chart, any timeframe. It will use the pair from the chart it is on, but uses its own timeframe settings.

Set the high limit and low limit. Default are 80 and 20, respectively.

If the 5,3,3 stochastic main and signal are all below the low limit, or all above the high limit, on the 15, 30, 1H, and 4H, you will get a popup alert and, if the Sound option is true, will play a sound.

It will give the alert again on the next bar.

If EmailAlert is set to True, it will send one email. You will have to re-initiate the indicator or it won't send another email. Detach and re-attach.

QUESTION: Should I make it so that if any 3 adjacent timeframes agree, the alarm sounds?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SpudFyre stochs.mq4   4 KB | 1,377 downloads
  • #251
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:29am Apr 9, 2007 8:29am
Quoting blueruby
OK, this seems to be working. Had to download and reinstall Interbank to get the compiler working.

Here's what it does.

Attach to any chart, any timeframe. It will use the pair from the chart it is on, but uses its own timeframe settings.

Set the high limit and low limit. Default are 80 and 20, respectively.

If the 5,3,3 stochastic main and signal are all below the low limit, or all above the high limit, on the 15, 30, 1H, and 4H, you will get a popup alert and, if the Sound option is true, will play a sound.

It will give the alert again on the next bar.

If EmailAlert is set to True, it will send one email. You will have to re-initiate the indicator or it won't send another email. Detach and re-attach.

QUESTION: Should I make it so that if any 3 adjacent timeframes agree, the alarm sounds?
Eewww that's cool. Here are my suggestions for alarms and indications:

30M/1H - short if they both went above 80 and are now below 80 moving back down...usually the 30 leads the 1H. Long vice versa.

15/30/1H - same as above but all 3 time frames

15/30/1H/4H - alarm when 4H only goes above 80 and comes down across 80 again. Alarm when 30m/1H or 15/30/1H do as above.

I would suggest you look only at the close of the candles so that the move is confirmed.

A different alarm when they hit the opposite level...i.e. when the 15M goes from 80 and hits 20.
  • #252
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:43am Apr 9, 2007 8:43am
Quoting blueruby
TEB, your whole post is great info, makes sense.

However, I think all that Spud is saying, as I understand it, is that the daily chart isn't going anywhere the 4H didn't go. Smaller, short term moves add up to bigger, long term moves. Short term moves are easier to see on short term charts.

We want to trade off the longer term, but we don't want short-term whipsaws to take our profits.

No its the reverse
the 4 hour chart is not going anywhere the day chart is not going
because the day chart shows the really big money
& the weekly the even bigger money etc.

The 4X always moves from the top down
believe me the big boys down lose money
& they are not surprised -
& they can only get out of a market slowly
you must understand that this is the key.
if they tried to dump millions or billions it would drop the price against them
and they would lose money
that is why they must use the big news events to get out of a pair
because that is the only time they can dump money
& not have it go against them..
ie the big tails

ie 9/11 the Dollar dropped...big time
for no reason really - that may surpise some people

but for the fact the 15 min & 30 min chart traders paniced
but the 4 hour traders where bussy buying
why because the day trend & the 4 hour trend where up
& you know they made money hand over fist
now the people following the 15 & 30 min charts lost big time!!

lastly
That is why on a smaller chart you get hit with the big D
because a small down turn on the day chart is a big down turn on the 4 hour
A great massive wave on the 15 min chart.

but if the day chart is up
you are pretty safe on the 15 min chart
because it takes a long time to get out of a billion dollar account
& not price turn against you... and so lose money
TEB
  • #253
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:53am Apr 9, 2007 8:53am
Hey TEB,

Regardless of the logic of price action, I think Spud is emphasizing STOCHASTICS. And on this point I would like to say that IT IS TRUE that lower time frame STOCHASTICS do in fact have an impact on higher timeframe STOCHASTICS. While it is true that forex has some fundamental underlying force guiding all short-term traders, what do you think all those big day candles are made of? They are made of 4 hour candles, 1 hour candles, 30 minute candles, etc. And this is how stochastics build upon one another.

I see what you are saying, but for the sake of Spud's method, what he is saying is also true.

Regards,

Kevin
  • #254
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:59am Apr 9, 2007 8:59am
Quoting blueruby
TEB, your whole post is great info, makes sense.

However, I think all that Spud is saying, as I understand it, is that the daily chart isn't going anywhere the 4H didn't go. Smaller, short term moves add up to bigger, long term moves. Short term moves are easier to see on short term charts.

We want to trade off the longer term, but we don't want short-term whipsaws to take our profits.
Well, if Spud will say it's okay and coordinate this, some of us could try the D1/H4/H1/M15 setup and see what will it give... it is his thread...

Spud... this one is for you... one day you said... "I resigned to 10 PIPs spreads"... I am still on it, finally by googling "MT4 ECN" and "MT4 Currenex" I located these three top options [6 PIPs or less]... MT4s are at download areas...

option A... am not sure about this company strength
option B... one of the strongest I think [see Prozentor FX Forecasting]
option C... interesting [CATS at 8-10% return/MT ...?]

A word from experienced traders as to which one would be best to open an account with will be appreciated... thanks

*** Good points Kevin...
  • #255
  • Apr 9, 2007 9:08am Apr 9, 2007 9:08am
Quoting TEB63
No its the reverse
the 4 hour chart is not going anywhere the day chart is not going
because the day chart shows the really big money
& the weekly the even bigger money etc.
Hi TEB

Thanks for sticking to your guns and trying to make your point well. I think there is no need to continue to thrash this one any longer.

For me the issue is this...Spudfyre has gone out of his way to explain how he trades the gbp/jpy using stochastics over multiple timeframes and he has called a number of live trades to prove that he is trading this method profitably. He has even made the extra effort to summarise the method in a word document and has made mention that he is very careful to watch the smaller time frames and any possible changes.

When all is told I am more interested in following a method that works and I will pay attention to what Spudfyre has written about the smaller time frames because I prefer not to learn the hard way and I sense that this method is simple and WORKS.

You make valid points regarding the longer time frames and it is obviously important to know what is happening at these levels. Let's move on and get back to the nitty gritty of Spudfyre's thread and learn to make profits like the author does.
  • #256
  • Apr 9, 2007 9:39am Apr 9, 2007 9:39am
Quoting EnkiJr
Well, if Spud will say it's okay and coordinate this, some of us could try the D1/H4/H1/M15 setup and see what will it give... it is his thread...

Spud... this one is for you... one day you said... "I resigned to 10 PIPs spreads"... I am still on it, finally by googling "MT4 ECN" and "MT4 Currenex" I located these three top options [6 PIPs or less]... MT4s are at download areas...

option A... am not sure about this company strength
option B... one of the strongest I think [see Prozentor FX Forecasting]
option C... interesting [CATS at 8-10% return/MT ...?]

A word from experienced traders as to which one would be best to open an account with will be appreciated... thanks

*** Good points Kevin...
Thanks for the info.
  • #257
  • Apr 9, 2007 9:58am Apr 9, 2007 9:58am
Quoting kharvell
Hey TEB,

Regardless of the logic of price action, I think Spud is emphasizing STOCHASTICS. And on this point I would like to say that IT IS TRUE that lower time frame STOCHASTICS do in fact have an impact on higher timeframe STOCHASTICS. While it is true that forex has some fundamental underlying force guiding all short-term traders, what do you think all those big day candles are made of? They are made of 4 hour candles, 1 hour candles, 30 minute candles, etc. And this is how stochastics build upon one another.

I see what you are saying, but for the sake of Spud's method, what he is saying is also true.

Regards,

Kevin
Don't think I could say it better. Same goes for Blueruby's comment. I think we are getting a little off the topic here and this will be my final comment on trends...other than to answer anyone's questions relating to how we trade.

What really matters is how we use the information and from my seat I have spelled out how I trade this. Whether big boys flip the whig on the day chart really doesn't concern me...as long as we make pips. Whether we make those pips in the up zig or the down zag of the down trending day chart really doesn't matter....we are like an atom in the universe with our trade...you won't even spot our move in the day chart.

When I speak of trends...I speak in the context of our trade window.
  • #258
  • Apr 9, 2007 10:02am Apr 9, 2007 10:02am
Thanks for making your point - I thought we were moving off-topic, too and that really sucks.

Quoting Spudfyre
Don't think I could say it better. Same goes for Blueruby's comment. I think we are getting a little off the topic here and this will be my final comment on trends...other than to answer anyone's questions relating to how we trade.

What really matters is how we use the information and from my seat I have spelled out how I trade this. Whether big boys flip the whig on the day chart really doesn't concern me...as long as we make pips. Whether we make those pips in the up zig or the down zag of the down trending day chart really doesn't matter....we are like an atom in the universe with our trade...you won't even spot our move in the day chart.

When I speak of trends...I speak in the context of our trade window.
  • #259
  • Apr 9, 2007 10:21am Apr 9, 2007 10:21am
Back to trading. Right now I'm looking for a good down move. That probably won't happen until tonight or probably tomorrow when things get back up and rocking again in the markets.

So why am I looking down? Well just to mention trends for a minute...our day trend is headed down so our strongest trades should be in the down direction.

Normally I wouldn't like where the 4H is sitting. However, this is where reading the stochs come into play more than a mechanical trade. I expect that the down move is going to be quite good as the 4H stoch hits 20 and curls below 20 and back up to 20.

To play this, will require paying careful attention the the 15/30/1H charts. I don't want to enter the trade unless I can get at least the 30M/1H in sync on a down move, If I am wrong, then probably worst thing that will happen is I'll break even. I'll still be watching the 15M chart to give me a heads up of where the 30M/1H are headed and where we are in the cycle. I'd prefer that the 15M sync with everything to start the trade but it is likely impossible we'll see the normal sync we like because we are playing a "4H curl" low in the chart.

I am quite bias at the moment that things will continue down and the effort now is avoiding making too early an entry...want to catch it after its starts moving. If things go up...I'll re-evaluate.
  • #260
  • Apr 9, 2007 10:43am Apr 9, 2007 10:43am
Quoting Spudfyre
Don't think I could say it better. Same goes for Blueruby's comment. I think we are getting a little off the topic here and this will be my final comment on trends...other than to answer anyone's questions relating to how we trade.

What really matters is how we use the information and from my seat I have spelled out how I trade this. Whether big boys flip the whig on the day chart really doesn't concern me...as long as we make pips. Whether we make those pips in the up zig or the down zag of the down trending day chart really doesn't matter....we are like an atom in the universe with our trade...you won't even spot our move in the day chart.

When I speak of trends...I speak in the context of our trade window.


Whether the price movement is influenced by a larger TF flowing down to a smaller TF or the smaller TFs flowing up to the larger TF is like the old question of "What comes first? The chicken or the egg?"

All things said, I believe Spud's simple and on the mark approach with Stochs is based on one important principle that we all would agree on.

M
T
F

watch, analyze, trade, learn, feel, wait, enter/exit based on observing Multiple Time Frames. This is key no matter what your belief is about how price moves.

Spud,
What level of importance do you put on the daily Stoch when you have a good trade?

Thanks again,
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