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Trading using Murray Maths and Price Action

  • #1,341
  • Apr 11, 2009 4:57am Apr 11, 2009 4:57am
Quoting bingchi6
karthik,

Looks at eurusd PA in H1 price had broke thru -1/8 at 1.31226 and reversed up and stop at 0/8 at 1.31865. Do u think eurusd will continue up from here to at least 2/8 at 1.33057

regards,

bc

as EU has broken thru important resistance points, it does look good for more...but as i said, i dont try to predict price movements too much into the future...no one can...and the market makers make it a point to make a fool of us by pointing us in one direction and taking the market into the other direction. I have got tired and sick of trying to outguess the market. Dont try to do that. I can challenge anyone anywhere (apart from the market makers, of course) that they cannot consistently predict what the market is going to do.

I can see that a lot of traders in here try to outguess the market and make some wild predictions (155 here we come, 128 here we come etc.) only to change their stance to the direct opposite in 2 days time...all this really makes me laugh...seriously...i could easily point out each of their mistakes on how they kept changing their prediction every 2 days but its a waste of time actually.

so, dont try to assume or predict....just trade what u see...as said before, decide whether u r a scalper or swing trader and trade what u see...i am a scalper and so i really dont care where the market goes...
  • #1,342
  • Apr 11, 2009 4:58am Apr 11, 2009 4:58am
Quoting bingchi6
karthik,

Looks at eurusd PA in H1 price had broke thru -1/8 at 1.31226 and reversed up and stop at 0/8 at 1.31865. Do u think eurusd will continue up from here to at least 2/8 at 1.33057

regards,

bc
I'd always proposing for a GAP re-fill theory.

in case a jump off pass-through a m-m level directly
it's better for it to be revisited and re-tested even if want to go ahead.

but this is my market observance is not a market prediction.
the thing we see now can be understood as a GAP refill.
having a way to understand why it could go back, this will remove some of my panic to guess "if reversed, if, what if?..."

also note that the move was 14-15pm US Friday, very little liquidity there.

http://billye2000.googlepages.com/gap.GIF
  • #1,343
  • Edited 7:19am Apr 11, 2009 5:08am | Edited 7:19am
yes. very good sharing

I moved to H1 chart position trading, so I just watch price visiting each level and wait for the conclusion to decide what to do next...
whatever the decision is we accept it and adjust accordingly.

market deal making is kind of getting people of different opinion aligned (up? down? up? down? go...), so testing each level is a process of that decision making.
we cannot predict the result of a voting, or why do we need a voting at all

Quoting ns_karthik
as EU has broken thru important resistance points, it does look good for more...but as i said, i dont try to predict price movements too much into the future...no one can...and the market makers make it a point to make a fool of us by pointing us in one direction and taking the market into the other direction. I have got tired and sick of trying to outguess the market. Dont try to do that. I can challenge anyone anywhere (apart from the market makers, of course) that they cannot consistently predict what the market is going to do.

I can see that...
  • #1,344
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:31am Apr 11, 2009 5:31am
Quoting billye
I'd always proposing for a GAP re-fill theory.

in case a jump off pass-through a m-m level directly
it's better for it to be revisited and re-tested even if want to go ahead.

but this is my market observance is not a market prediction.
the thing we see now can be understood as a GAP refill.
having a way to understand why it could go back, this will remove some of my panic to guess "if reversed, if, what if?..."

also note that the move was 14-15pm US Friday, very little liquidity there.
billeye,
i would like to use your image to explain something on MM and VSA....i hope you dont mind it.....
  • #1,345
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:40am Apr 11, 2009 5:40am
Thank you ns_karthnik

Quoting ns_karthik
here is the one which changes the MM levels according to the TF that your chart is in....
This one I can use on H1 with MML of H1?
Should I change anything in setups...Like for P?

and here is the one which shows the MM levels for a fixed TF irespective of the TF that your chart is in...the default fixed TF is 1H...
[/quote]

This one I can use on M5 and M15 with MML of H1?
Should I change anything in setups...Like for P?

What about H4 and D?

Again thank you.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #1,346
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:48am Apr 11, 2009 5:48am
Quoting ns_karthik
as EU has broken thru important resistance points, it does look good for more...but as i said, i dont try to predict price movements too much into the future...no one can...and the market makers make it a point to make a fool of us by pointing us in one direction and taking the market into the other direction. I have got tired and sick of trying to outguess the market. Dont try to do that. I can challenge anyone anywhere (apart from the market makers, of course) that they cannot consistently predict what the market is going to do.

I can see that...

Once you said that you trade on H1 and using M5 for entries...Now you said you are scalper...on H1? I always tought that scalping is on very small TF...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #1,347
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:52am Apr 11, 2009 5:52am
Quoting mima
Thank you ns_karthnik



This one I can use on H1 with MML of H1?
Should I change anything in setups...Like for P?

and here is the one which shows the MM levels for a fixed TF irespective of the TF that your chart is in...the default fixed TF is 1H...
This one I can use on M5 and M15 with MML of H1?
Should I change anything in setups...Like for P?

What about H4 and D?

Again thank you.[/quote]

no need to change anything on the indicator parameters. The second indicator plots 1H MM levels. If you wanna change that to 4H or 1D, you need to change the timeframe parameter in that indicator to 240 or 3600.
  • #1,348
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:52am Apr 11, 2009 5:52am
Quoting mima
Once you said that you trade on H1 and using M5 for entries...Now you said you are scalper...on H1? I always tought that scalping is on very small TF...
Yes, i do trade the 1H SR using 5 M charts. i can scalp cos i use the 5M charts....i dont see the 1H charts at all...
  • #1,349
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:13am Apr 11, 2009 6:13am
Quoting ns_karthik
Yes, i do trade the 1H SR using 5 M charts. i can scalp cos i use the 5M charts....i dont see the 1H charts at all...

I do trade what i see on my chart. Perhap i am a swing trader not a scalper.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd411.jpg Size: 251 KB
  • #1,350
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:16am Apr 11, 2009 6:16am
Quoting bingchi6
I do trade what i see on my chart. Perhap i am a swing trader not a scalper.
cool...i did not mean to offend...just told what i felt...
  • #1,351
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:43am Apr 11, 2009 9:43am
Heya NS. It's me from the VSA thread. I just wanted to pop in here to say Hi. I've been following this thread with great interest and I have found that VSA combined with MM can be deadly accurate.

I'm looking forward to learning more from your and I appreciate all you do here.
The trend always ends.
  • #1,352
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:06am Apr 11, 2009 10:06am
Quoting ShamusFamous
Heya NS. It's me from the VSA thread. I just wanted to pop in here to say Hi. I've been following this thread with great interest and I have found that VSA combined with MM can be deadly accurate.

I'm looking forward to learning more from your and I appreciate all you do here.
sounds good.

volume and spread are very objective and informative facts for us to observe.
is there a way we get this info from mt4?
I took a look it seems the height of candle can also be understood as spread.
then where is volume info? mt4 show a volume but not sure if that is real (seems real, Friday afternoon volume is low)
  • #1,353
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:26am Apr 11, 2009 10:26am
Quoting billye
sounds good.

volume and spread are very objective and informative facts for us to observe.
is there a way we get this info from mt4?
I took a look it seems the height of candle can also be understood as spread.
then where is volume info? mt4 show a volume but not sure if that is real (seems real, Friday afternoon volume is low)

If you take a look at the VSA thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629) there are a couple of very good indicators for Volume posted there (I use better volume indicator in the resources section of the first post)

Also discussed are the best source (IBFX demo is fine in lieu of esignal) of volume for forex.
The trend always ends.
  • #1,354
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:47am Apr 11, 2009 10:47am
Quoting ns_karthik
Yes, i do trade the 1H SR using 5 M charts. i can scalp cos i use the 5M charts....i dont see the 1H charts at all...
Great, I will follow...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #1,355
  • Apr 11, 2009 11:51am Apr 11, 2009 11:51am
Quoting ShamusFamous
Heya NS. It's me from the VSA thread. I just wanted to pop in here to say Hi. I've been following this thread with great interest and I have found that VSA combined with MM can be deadly accurate.

I'm looking forward to learning more from your and I appreciate all you do here.
Hi shamus.....yes i do know that u have been running a wonderful thread on VSA....keep up the good work mate.....
  • #1,356
  • Apr 11, 2009 11:53am Apr 11, 2009 11:53am
Here is a post which i made in my blog a few hours ago...

Here is a chart which was put up by billeye to explain a different concept. I am posting this here as it is a great example of how MM and VSA work together. In case anyone is wondering what VSA is, it is Volume Spread Analysis. It is a study which tries to predict SR points and PA based on the volume and the spread of price bars/candles.

Rather than going into details of VSA, which is rather complicated, let me try and explain the chart in very simple terms.

On the EU chart, in the first circle, price has broken thru the 2/8 support level and you can see that the candle that broke thru the support has a very wide spread. This shows that there have been lot of sellers right through the candle. This selling started at the top of the swing at around 1.3380 but the big sellers came in only in this bar and it is this huge selling that pushed the price through the support and make the support break possible....So any candle with a wide spread breaking through a support is a sure confirmation that the support has been broken. So you can surely expect some more follow through selling after the bar as well.

As you can see the follow through selling continued and in the second circle, there is another wide spread candle/bar which broke thru the support at 1/8 MM level. This also points to big sellers at those prices who managed to break support. Again, this confirms the break of support and leads to some more follow through selling.

The body of these wide spread bars/candles has a lot of sellers residing in them. So next time, if and when price manages to come back to the level (into the body of the bar/candle), you can expect the same sellers to be waiting there once again. This is what is happening in the third circle where the price has come back to the body of the wide spread candle and is faced with a lot of sellers who had initially pushed the price down in the wide spread bar/candle (second circle). The same sellers again start selling in the third circle and u can see how price struggles to go through the body of the bar/candle in the second circle. It needs a lot of buying to absorb all the selling made by the sellers at the body of the bar/candle in the second circle. Finally, after 3-4 hrs, all the selling has been absorbed and the price breaks thru support turned resistance and goes through.

Now the same situation happens in the fourth circle. This time the fight is between the sellers who were residing in the body of another wide spread bar/candle (first circle). You can see that price is struggling to break through and buyers are trying to absorb all the selling. But this time, all the buyers are simply not able to absorb all the selling and they lose the fight. The sellers residing there win the battle and price goes down again.

After this, you can see some more wide spread bars/candles to break through support. It is because of the above explanation that we can expect to find resistance (or a lot of sellers) at the last 2 circles in 1.3184 and 1.3245).

In all this, you can see how MM managed to pick all the SR points correctly. So, it is not that there is SR cos the MM levels are there. It is just that the SR levels have been picked out superbly by MM. You can see similar things in the other chart on USDCHF as well.

See how beautifully MM and VSA work together.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gap.GIF Size: 47 KB
  • #1,357
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:00pm Apr 11, 2009 12:00pm
Hi Karthik

I like your thread and Sneha. I have read you thread from the begining and looked at all her pictures at least twice.

I am also from India living in chicago. I have been a newbie to forex for a year now, and do spend lots of time learning the ropes. So far, my biggest problem has been me - my psychology, and I haven't found a way to train my psycology. So I trade mirco lots on 10k account and treat it as if millions of dollors of my personal fortune are riding on my trades. And I panic when a trade goes $1-2 in the negative. I have lost large sum of monies in my other businesses without panicking as I treat them as cost of doing business but when it comes to forex trading, I simply freeze and panick. Its a painful proicess of unlearning and training one's own psychology. I am sure many newbies can relate to that.

On the MM indicators. I wish somebody can make them as sexy as Sneha. They seem to clutter the screen. Can somebody modify it so the MM lines are confined only on the right corner, or at least gives it as inputable option? That would free up the chart a great deal.

I look forward to learn from this thread.
  • #1,358
  • Edited 12:18pm Apr 11, 2009 12:07pm | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting ns_karthik
here is the one which changes the MM levels according to the TF that your chart is in....
Hi ns_karthik,

I tidied up the code in this (even though it should be in a museum), Put all the lines to the background, comments is set to false by default now, and you can now select/deselect bml lines 25 and 50 along with color and personal style. bml lines are defaulted to true.

Xard777
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screen.png Size: 143 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #MurreyMath-TimeFrame.ex4   29 KB | 860 downloads
  • #1,359
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:09pm Apr 11, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting ns_karthik
Here is a post which i made in my blog a few hours ago...

...It is a study which tries to predict SR points and PA based on the volume and the spread of price bars/candles.r.
What is this 'spread of price candles"? Does it mean length of candles? How much price movement a candle has? Does this spread refers to one candle, group of candles?
  • #1,360
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:22pm Apr 11, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting kerty9
What is this 'spread of price candles"? Does it mean length of candles? How much price movement a candle has? Does this spread refers to one candle, group of candles?
usually spread refer to a instead price difference = seller expectation - buyer expectation
(not fixed spread broker, you have to look at ecn or stocks is best).
sell2 1.3173 2000 lot
sell1 1.3172 100 lot
buy1 1.3170 200 lot
buy2 1.3169 1000 lot

in the vsa thread, it is using a M1 chart candle to refer to 1M spread, I think it is acceptable (actually pretty good insight)...

this is a way for us to know how the price went up.

and depend on the volume,
if volume is low and instant spread(sell1-buy1) is up, this means seller don't want to sell, they highly value it... as a result M1 candle could be long (extreme case you see 0 volume and price up by 1%)
if volume is high and instant spread(sell1-buy1) still tight, but M1 candle is long, this means buyer is overwhelming and seller cannot hold a price with limited holdings they have.

this is one chart from the vsa (actually from web)
http://www.sfomag.com/images/charts/...ger_chart1.jpg
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