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Silent Service Method

  • #1,021
  • Apr 8, 2009 11:35am Apr 8, 2009 11:35am
Quoting clockwork71
The guy in the picture is my new hero.
every time he talks he cracks me up.
  • #1,022
  • Apr 8, 2009 12:41pm Apr 8, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting clockwork71
I responded to a post on this forum in another thread that got me really hot under the collar. It wasn't that that poster was out of line, far from it. It was a cliche he used. "Trading takes guts".

No it doesn't. Bullshit.

Let's talk about something that happened in my life last year that profoundly effected me in so many ways. Last June, on the 14th, my second son was born. On the 22nd, my mother died.

CW
Clockwork,
Sorry about your mother. This is one of the best posts on forex factory.
Thank you,
Dave
  • #1,023
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:09pm Apr 8, 2009 1:09pm
can you tell me which is that indicator that shows you how much of the london/new york session is left?

thank you

Quoting kodflakes
I just wanted to ask a question about the USD/MEX does it normally move this smoothly? I took the trade last night was able to aero out in about 2 hours if I remember right. The long is high lighted in the yellow box, also you can see all the trade details below on the bottom. I know that the short entry area highlighted by green is a better entry so Im not asking about that. Also how well does this fit with your silent service method?

And thanks for sharing all this info after reading through this thread things are just a little more clear helping...
  • #1,024
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:52pm Apr 8, 2009 1:52pm
Quoting bjelakrez
can you tell me which is that indicator that shows you how much of the london/new york session is left?

thank you
This is what you asked for!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 THV3 Market Hours.ex4   10 KB | 370 downloads
  • #1,025
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:53pm Apr 8, 2009 1:53pm
CW, If related pairs are giving you conflicting signals would you leave both alone, take only one or take both?

For instance, EurGbp looks as though it is going to continue down for a while. Without going into an in depth analysis, the 90 level isn't providing strong support, the bounce that occured today is from the upwards trendline from dec last year and 10th/24th Feb but the recent downtrend shows no sign of stopping soon and in fact on the 4hr chart you can draw a pretty good trendline which held this evening.

On the other hand, EurAud is showing signs of finding support at 1.86 and could be a good buy if the bounce is confirmed with PA in the coming days.

Now, I'm not necessarily interested in taking either of these trades but looking at the price action you could make a case for shorting one and going long the other which would appear to be counterintuitive as if the Euro is weakening you wouldn't want to buy it!

How do you deal with situations like this? Do you wait for extra confirmation on both pairs and act accordingly or if the signals are strong enough (better than the above at least) do you open both?

Sorry if this sounds a stupid question but I think it's a valid question to ask. Look at eurjpy and eurgbp recently, one trending up and one trending down. You could've made money trading both or would you recommend only trading the euro or dollar say if the majority of matched pairs were moving in the same direction?
  • #1,026
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:58pm Apr 8, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting hel13rock
CW, If related pairs are giving you conflicting signals would you leave both alone, take only one or take both?

For instance, EurGbp looks as though it is going to continue down for a while. Without going into an in depth analysis, the 90 level isn't providing strong support, the bounce that occured today is from the upwards trendline from dec last year and 10th/24th Feb but the recent downtrend shows no sign of stopping soon and in fact on the 4hr chart you can draw a pretty good trendline which held this evening.

On the other hand, EurAud...
Not a stupid question at all, in fact...it's a great one.

Even though they both have EUR in them, they are not necessarily related. Let me explain....I am assuming that you are specifically worried about being long AND short the Euro at the same time. But think of this: Is it possible that the charts are not even signaling anything related to the Euro. Maybe it's a sign of AUD weakness, and GBP strength. If you look around see if you see similar signals on various currencies. You may find that the GBP is poised to strengthen. The fact that EUR is looking strong against AUD is irrelevant.

Maybe the AUD is weak at the same time.

I think what you are thining of is the XXX/JPY pairs, which really do tend to move in tandem. I never trade 2 of those at the same time. As far as the pairs you mentioned.....they aren't related enough for me to worry about.

CW
  • #1,027
  • Apr 8, 2009 3:37pm Apr 8, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting hel13rock
CW, If related pairs are giving you conflicting signals would you leave both alone, take only one or take both?

For instance, EurGbp looks as though it is going to continue down for a while. Without going into an in depth analysis, the 90 level isn't providing strong support, the bounce that occured today is from the upwards trendline from dec last year and 10th/24th Feb but the recent downtrend shows no sign of stopping soon and in fact on the 4hr chart you can draw a pretty good trendline which held this evening.

On the other hand, EurAud...
I guess this that if your analysis is correct, this also has to shine through in the GBPAUD charts. If we look at that chart we see that GBPAUD is around a very strong support level of 2.0500ish, and will probably have the tendency to move up again. Since this supports your view on the EURGBP (strong GBP) and EURAUD (weak AUD), there is no reason not to take the trades in my opinion.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #1,028
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:56pm Apr 8, 2009 7:56pm
Any thoughts on the NZD/USD CW? We have price coming back to retest .58 level. We had the pin off .60 earlier this week and then another 4 hour pin off .5750 area in the opposite direction. Thanks!
Attached Image
  • #1,029
  • Apr 8, 2009 8:01pm Apr 8, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
Any thoughts on the NZD/USD CW? We have price coming back to retest .58 level. We had the pin off .60 earlier this week and then another 4 hour pin off .5750 area in the opposite direction. Thanks!

I still "think" this is a short ultimately. Will my now break-even stop get taken out? Maybe, maybe not. Either way....it's about sticking to the plan, which has been done.

Overall, 60 is still the key in my opinion.

58 is a bit-part in this play.
  • #1,030
  • Apr 8, 2009 8:47pm Apr 8, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting Noloqy
I guess this that if your analysis is correct, this also has to shine through in the GBPAUD charts. If we look at that chart we see that GBPAUD is around a very strong support level of 2.0500ish, and will probably have the tendency to move up again. Since this supports your view on the EURGBP (strong GBP) and EURAUD (weak AUD), there is no reason not to take the trades in my opinion.
Thanks CW and Noloqy, that clears that up in my head nicely. I'm thinking usdjpy is lining up for a massive trend reversal (or continuation if you're looking bigger) at the moment so those pretty uptrends on all the other jpy pairs look dangerous to follow too much longer. We'll see in the fullness of time.
  • #1,031
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:23pm Apr 8, 2009 10:23pm
thank you very much!

Quoting blackhell
This is what you asked for!
  • #1,032
  • Apr 8, 2009 11:59pm Apr 8, 2009 11:59pm
somebody on this thread brought this pair into my attention when it made a pinbar right on 2.2700 level while ago...
at that time i checked past support levels and found only 2.26 and 2.24 area to look for long opportunity and i said we should pass this pinbar and look for better setups(i could've been easily wrong)..
But 2.27 didn't have anything to do with being support level other than just round number..
but now if price makes new pinbar on 27 level again..than i can start thinking extending my range to 2.27-2.24 area and take a long only if nice p.a happens here..
(but to be honest i'd be feeling better if price goes down into 2.26-2.24 and test that area,that'd also leave us another divergence)
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  • #1,033
  • Apr 9, 2009 5:24am Apr 9, 2009 5:24am
looks like ej found support with that pin bar on 131.00 level ...
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  • #1,034
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:52am Apr 9, 2009 8:52am
I just heard a new rumor that the Peso is adopting a policy never done by any other currency instead of backing it up with gold they are going to back it with coke what an idea.
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  • #1,035
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:00am Apr 9, 2009 9:00am
Quoting kodflakes
I just heard a new rumor that the Peso is adopting a policy never done by any other currency instead of backing it up with gold they are going to back it with coke what an idea.
I bet you can take your Pesos, go to the Central Bank and exchange it for cocaine then. I don't know where you got that rumor, or if it is a joke, but I'm affraid it is extremely unlikely
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #1,036
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:02am Apr 9, 2009 9:02am
Quoting kodflakes
I just heard a new rumor that the Peso is adopting a policy never done by any other currency instead of backing it up with gold they are going to back it with coke what an idea.
That would explain the recent drop. You should contact Bloomberg with the story!
With the news they publish you're sure to make front page :-D
  • #1,037
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:05am Apr 9, 2009 9:05am
Man its just a joke you dont have to be so serious
  • #1,038
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:29am Apr 9, 2009 9:29am
Hi
would anybody like to comment on the chart
Am i on the right track with these S/R lines
and would this be worth a go come monday
if it stays below the support line (for a short) or is it jumping in to quickly.

thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp daily.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #1,039
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:54am Apr 9, 2009 9:54am
at the time..ej seemed good to go long..i set my sl not far and it may stopped out soon..but we`ll see what happens..at least it`ll give me some hints for near future..
  • #1,040
  • Apr 9, 2009 1:43pm Apr 9, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting nomask
at the time..ej seemed good to go long..i set my sl not far and it may stopped out soon..but we`ll see what happens..at least it`ll give me some hints for near future..
My observations....you could say this about all the XXX/JPY pairs pretty much. It only did two of three things I like to see in a continuation or break out trade: It went above the first area, it found support.....but it did NOT continue higher.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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