Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi there,

PA and reversal pattern are trump, at least for me.

I tend to miss some clean reversal patterns, when trading to long in the same direction without a break . Because of that I try to switch timeFrames on my charts every now and then to generate a more unbiased fresh look on the recent trands ...

Hi maheswara

I was cautious, I not knew what all traders want to do

lol,
looks like sellers are surfacing now only ,
anyway Im done for the day , NY ground is not my best ground for skirmish ,
good luck and good trading to all

Done with my daily dance.

A thought came while I sold my Euros:

"If my fear shows up,
I am either overexposured
or facing a wall and a possible reversal might happen."
so
is fear good or bad for my trading?
Maybe fear is an inner warnig of something going on...
so the point is not get rid of fear
but
to listen to its warnings
not to panic
to carefully review the lay of the land
and act accordingly.

Happy trading to all.

Hi Lusan,

yeah we should listen to our fears and not ignore them.
But to get better traders we do not need fears at all.

Our brain is reacting/processing things in the following order:

1. Something happens
2. Recognition of the event (completely value free)
3. Judgement/Evaluation of the recognition
4. (re)Action (This could be fear or any other more positive reaction)

This means, that training could change our judgement of some recognitions so that we do not have to respond with feelings of fear ...

Just my 0.02 EUR

p.s.: The order of processessing mentioned above is comon sense in the area of recognition and emotion research ...

I agree with you.
As a beginner trader, I am still dealing with my fears...
Sometimes she comes, some other times is not there at all...
either way,
when she comes I better listen without panicking.
if she is not there,
then I must be extremmly carefull
because
it could be the devil of overconfidence sniking in
to strike me down.

By the way,
I am rereading AOW and Musashi Miyamoto...

Hi all

Musgrove wrote this , good fast repetition.Whole thread is better

(Hello

I just got caught up on the 30 pages I missed in the couple of days and noticed some concern over the use of this thread so I thought I would re-hash a few lessons I think are important.
1)
Rule #1 preservation of cap.
Rule #2 preservation of cap.
Rule #3 don't forget rule #1

2)This is not new. It was old when the Phoenicians were trading with the Romans and the Greek Philosophers cornered the olive oil market. This is the concept.

The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geometrically with losses

% Loss initial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900

The % gain required to come back to balance (break even) will increase geometrically with your losses.
If you lose, 20% of your capital, you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.
So please be careful with you’re trading

3)
Do not be confused that the attack sequence and the rescue sequence both take on the geometric basis. The purpose of rescue MO is to recover the scout, when encumbered; therefore the minimum response is at least a fib progression sequence.
The attack sequence is for press therefore should at least be a reverse fib, to protect from possible retracement against position.

4)
If 1 scout was in trouble, u sent in 1 to rescue then 3 to rescue if unsuccessful, if more rescue were required then the next squad would be?

Ten, did you get it right?
Based on this progression what would be the next required rescue?
Thirty, did you get this right?
What’s next, ninety.... see now.
Lets say you use a 1,2,3
then required rescue is 18, 50, 150,

I best not show you level 3....

if you evaluate your rescue risk snowball....
now do a rough guesstimate for every pip run against you, it will cost your book?

5)
Losing money is no big deal in trading. Losing the ability to financial trade again is the pits of it. But truly losing moral, that ones incurable.


6)
I am the general, commander of my forces. As general, I am responsible for understanding where the market has been (trend lines), it’s strength (bull, bear or sideways) and on what ground it is in at any point in time (Asia, London, New York).
The general starts all the engagements with the enemy, EURO/USD or GBP/USD, the time and place is based on his interpretation of the information that he has gathered before hand. The preparations for this engagement include gauging the strength of the opponent’s moves, volatility, and direction of movements: long and short term trends.
He also chooses a strategy (buy or sell, long or short term) and asset commitments.
All this he ponders in his temple. When the plans are made, he waits for the enemy to provide an opening and the starts the battle.
Once a battle has started, the general will modify his plans to account for movements of the enemy (price action, changes of ground).
The general will not display his retreat points (stop loss points) nor will he announce his points of victory (limits). These will only help the enemy to defeat him.
Management of resources will always be part of the battle (money management).
The general will practice responding to enemy movements, honing his skills both in battle and in the practice field.
This general is a guerrilla fighter. He does not have the resources to go head to head with the enemy. The fight is always on the flanks and is not able to see the full strength of the enemy, but can feel the effects of the enemy’s movements instantly and must be able adjust his adjust his attack using discipline and methods learned in battle and instruction

There is so much more but these were a few things that caught my eye during my review.

Hello
I don't really see what the problem is here. Fti has laid out a very simple technique that is easily applied and followed.
1) MM (look it up) if you are under capitalized move the decimal point over a notch or two(lot size) so you can perform rescues appropriatly.

2)get rid of all your indicators and watch price action. Look for compound chart formations.You won't see the moves your suppose to make right away but after a year or so you will get the idea.(people are to impatient)

3)trade the five minute chart and scale out as needed for rescue and the search for the over all trend

4)don't trade news releases. Be aware of them but don't trade them.

5)stick with the trend (and you hopefully won't have to change busses)

6) don't confuse fib s/r levels with your spiraling in and out sizes.

7)for new traders stick to 1,1,1, attack and 1,5 rescue

8)don't show the enemy you stop loss levels or take profit

9)get in and out of your trades quickly 7 bars max average three

10)set up the proper mind set to do the job.

I'm am not a supper trader or even a good trader. But I have read the thread multiple times and am seriously interested in implementing this technique of trading. I do see Fti frustration with people and their reluctance to stick to the thought process of the AOW and continuosly watering down the thread with basterdized ideas or rogue trading. I do appretiate people posting positions and thoughts but lets try to stick to the true concept.

Fti doesn't look to make a thread of clones but does look to build a stable fondation on which to build on.

If I'm of base I'm here to scold but please all lets get back to the basics.

I think I will chime in once again with a few thoughts.

1)capitalization (you need it) for the proper dance.
2)ants work, start small and work your way up it will compound over time.
3)The scout, my scout is very small and can bleed for a long time before I start to fret over it. If I have to wait for the proper time to rescue I can wait it out.
4)with my small scout flowing with the market I can easily rescue or quickly add my big guns to the fight for a quick attack.
5)dance with the flow, everyone talks about banks ,oil,gold, etc. but the true teller of the story is price action. Watch the dance!
6)the skew, it can be added to as needed and your feel of the market will dictate that just keep your progression in sync with the fib. #. You can skip into higher levels if you feel confident.
7)Time, I have a trade and it took me 5 years to get my ticket ,and when I finally did I didn't all of a sudden know everything(i'm still learning) PATIENTS!

After saying all that My scorpion is proper scout entry. But, I'm getting quite proficient at rescuing.

Thanks again fti for keeping my book in the +++)

(FTI)In simple language, I Think some traders may be thinking from too many perspectives that they are paralysed from prudent action and reaction to market flow.
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)
This could be reasons why some cannot dance.
When this was my frame of mind this morning session, I COULDN'T DANCE!!.
Which was the reason I cut loose the session abruptly.
As I reset my thoughts from booked exposure, The rhythm returned.

Thanks Gro for the quote

Hi piccolo
Missing me FTI strict sharp sword.

Regards

Picture for friends of the fiber

oh looks like the store has re-opened!

Hi Jest!

Nice to see you.
Hope you are doing well??!?

Regards,
MaMood

mamood,

i just came back from a holiday trip.
im fine, not spectacular and not down under either heheh. just the average joe.

hows our lads doing? fti looks like he's back and kicking, our ol guy has finally got bored and succumbed, i saw him check in hotel california(taf thread) a few weeks back? hehe

cheers!

rather volatile n illiquid probably due to toms holiday ,
stay nimble and be careful

Hi all

Today is a lot of events, turbulent day.

good luck

Done and happy.
It is a beautiful sunny day.
I will go out and walk in Albany downtown.

What a morning!
I was trading, focusing on my charts
and suddendly
they went crazy...I thought "what is going on?"
turned the TV
and guess what
Master O was once again talking on TV.
I tell you...this man is a really good indicator...
as soon as he begins opening his mouth
the volatility goes to hell...
Any way...I wanted to ride my profit...
I saw so much hesitation....as if the whole market wanted to figure out what he said...
so
I got out,
took my profit out...
brought my troops to my castle...
and then boom...
a drop of 100 pips....

Congratulations to all the bulls...

Jest, happy to know about you...
I am glad you are still around...
I remember your words of wisdom..

Happy trading to all.

Hi luSan

congratulations to the nice profits, enjoy it

His name wasn't tom

lol,
have a good long weekend everyone , managed just a breakeven this week ,
c ya all on Monday