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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,521
  • Apr 7, 2009 9:32am Apr 7, 2009 9:32am
Quoting woopypooky
hi, i have blown 2 accounts already this year.
lol, i keep sending in rescue after rescue.
this is not what fti tell us to do.

Quote
- i guess i am not meant for this kind of trading technique.
You might not been using the method at all but trading a martingale. That is a killer.

Quote
i realise 'hope' is so strong within me. If i didnt put stop losses, i will never take losses. yes, i never will. Now that i had lost everything, i curse myself for not taking stoplosses, but then, when it was down 50%, i still cling to 'hope'. LOL
It seems that you missed the mindset component of the method. I am very sorry.

Quote
But with this technique, i doubled my account in 2 months but it only takes a 'fccking' once in a blue moon go wrong and...
Normal event on martingale. The core of the techinique is around strategies which include attacks, rescue, flipping and SURRENDER. This requires a lot of flexibility because any type of rigidity will kill us. I found that when Ido not take the full package I am eaten alive. Rescue alone is NOT a good idea as you found. Only when we are in tune with PA we can trade this method.

The point? The mechanics of the method is very easy; the very hard part is internal....the mind...mindset...how to manage fear, h..., panic. I see it as a form of internal martial art where the enemies are our own greed, fear and h....

Wish you luck and keep the faith.
-------------------------
PS. I just watch the discussion...I do not teach a thing, I just trade and deal with my own inflexibility...but I felt so sorry that I could not avoid writing this...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,522
  • Apr 7, 2009 9:45am Apr 7, 2009 9:45am
Quoting luSan
this is not what fti tell us to do.


You might not been using the method at all but trading a martingale. That is a killer.


It seems that you missed the mindset component of the method. I am very sorry.


Normal event on martingale. The core of the techinique is around strategies which include attacks, rescue, flipping and SURRENDER. This requires a lot of flexibility because any type of rigidity will kill us. I found that when Ido not take the full package I am eaten alive. Rescue alone is NOT a good idea as you found....
I totally agree. For me, the internal control is the toughest part once you become consistently profitable. The feeling of invincibility is a problem. I guess after you've lost a couple of times and u truly internalise that the market can teach you another lesson anytime, then only you'll be in total control of yourself.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,523
  • Apr 7, 2009 9:56am Apr 7, 2009 9:56am
Quoting hpr
I totally agree. For me, the internal control is the toughest part once you become consistently profitable. The feeling of invincibility is a problem. I guess after you've lost a couple of times and u truly internalise that the market can teach you another lesson anytime, then only you'll be in total control of yourself.
Ah...I just saw in below your signature...here it is:

Quoting fti
However if you stay to
1- prudent MO, MM,
2- proper capitalisation
and
3- mindset,

your chances for survival is much better.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,524
  • Apr 7, 2009 9:56am Apr 7, 2009 9:56am
Lusan is very right , the MO as a whole need to be understood ...
but understanding it as a whole is a step by step process...
rescue first , attack second , and in between these 2 things , you will automatically learn the difference between wrong and very wrong , also right and very right, and what to do when each instances occur
each to their own learning curve,

anyway , done for today ,gnite all ,
will see ya tom , good trading ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,525
  • Apr 7, 2009 10:18am Apr 7, 2009 10:18am
Quoting luSan
Ah...I just saw in below your signature...here it is:
Yes, I'm learning how to know when my mindset is really wrong. 2 days ago, I think I blinded myself.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,526
  • Edited 10:57am Apr 7, 2009 10:47am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting woopypooky
hi, i have blown 2 accounts already this year.
lol, i keep sending in rescue after rescue. until i get margin call, on both occasions.
there goes my all savings.

- i guess i am not meant for this kind of trading technique. This few days i recap back everything, i realise 'hope' is so strong within me. If i didnt put stop losses, i will never take losses. yes, i never will. Now that i had lost everything, i curse myself for not taking stoplosses, but then, when it was down 50%, i still cling to 'hope'. LOL


-but then, last time when i used to put...
Hi:

Sorry to hear your misfortune. But you used "rescues" for 2 months, and it worked for you. Why failed just in one day?

The position is too heavy? Against the trend? I think you did the both.

Rescues are very dangrous MOs, because you may trade against the trend unconciously. If the price goes several hundred pips without a rescueable bounce-back that will bring a disaster. As FTI said you collaped into hope only.

So if your rescues are also stuck, cut the loss and have a rest until your mind become peaceful again.

My personal advice: Maybe you should try a longer time frame and make your stop loss bigger say 100 pips and reduce your size accordingly.
  • #6,527
  • Apr 7, 2009 11:41am Apr 7, 2009 11:41am
The squeeze is going to expand soon.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,528
  • Apr 7, 2009 5:38pm Apr 7, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting fti
However if you stay to prudent MO, MM, proper capitalisation and mindset, your chances for survival is much better.
Be rackless and you will destroy yourself instantaniously.
Thanks Lusan. I will quote it again.

1. Prudent MO, MM
2. Proper capitalisation
3. Mindset

Remember there are three ingredients there. Not one or two but three. Miss an ingredient and that cake you try to bake isn't going to work out quite like you expected. Yes, we can add more to it for extra flavour but we still need those key ingredients.

fti also mentioned the following in the same post above:

Understand that it is impossible to predict the future. The only way is to yield into it with appropriate strategies. Leave predicting future to the fortune tellers.

Now this is about you. Develop yourself and your strategy and when you are ready you will know it within yourself.
  • #6,529
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:32pm Apr 7, 2009 8:32pm
I want to share what happened to me a few days ago.

When I started out earlier in the year, I was grabbing 0.2% to 0.5% everyday. Somedays, I get -0.1%. It was a part of my learning process after 2 big losses in November. So, I was working hard watching the screen all the time.

A quarter later, I was up by 30%. Its nothing compared to you guys but it felt good to have this pile. And before the loss, I didn't know what was happening to myself.

1. I became overconfident.
2. My sizes got bigger.
3. I was complacently feeling e.g. playing first person shooter games while trading.
4. The worse is that I became stubborn.

So then I managed to increase my winnings up to 40% within less than 2 weeks or so.
Well, then I think you guys know what happened, Rescue MO, one after another, then flip, then revenge. Now I my winnings are only 27%.

At least I've learn something new that could happen to myself i.e. even if you may think you have the mindset, you might forget and not even know that you've forgotten to monitor it because things were going so well.

Also, I realise that this learning process is going to take forever and I want to make my cost of learning smaller. So, let me introduce you to my new hard rule is that my losses must be 2x daily earnings. No more of that 5% or 10%. Its too much effort wasted.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,530
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:49pm Apr 7, 2009 8:49pm
Quoting hpr
I want to share what happened to me a few days ago.

When I started out earlier in the year, I was grabbing 0.2% to 0.5% everyday. Somedays, I get -0.1%. It was a part of my learning process after 2 big losses in November. So, I was working hard watching the screen all the time.

A quarter later, I was up by 30%. Its nothing compared to you guys but it felt good to have this pile. And before the loss, I didn't know what was happening to myself.

1. I became overconfident.
2. My sizes got bigger.
3. I was complacently feeling e.g. playing first...

yes how true ,
I ve realized the lesser the risk you take , the more steady your equity increases , taking a risk we cant cope with will give hectic equity curve , even if in the end its profitable it still doesnt beat the steady and slow one,
as fti have said , an ants job ...

although I ve seen people with steady awesome return , I ve come to realize that they have that kind of ability after years or decades of experience , they are able to cope with the risk they take ...

good trading to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,531
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:11am Apr 8, 2009 2:11am
Everyone is different.Therefore the market is alive.

Ego is afraid of the vacuum.Therefore looking for a solid point.

Market affects man and man affects the market, and the market is looking like the man.

Search has its limit for every man.



... percent are outside the limit.:nerd:



Regards
  • #6,532
  • Apr 8, 2009 3:34am Apr 8, 2009 3:34am
Quoting hpr
I want to share what happened to me a few days ago.

When I started out earlier in the year, I was grabbing 0.2% to 0.5% everyday. Somedays, I get -0.1%. It was a part of my learning process after 2 big losses in November. So, I was working hard watching the screen all the time.

A quarter later, I was up by 30%. Its nothing compared to you guys but it felt good to have this pile. And before the loss, I didn't know what was happening to myself.

1. I became overconfident.
2. My sizes got bigger.
3. I was complacently feeling e.g. playing first...

Hi Hpr,

sorry to hear about the losing experience you made.

But as I have done in the Lounge thread some months ago, I want to ask you how you can be sure or what made you think, that overconfidence was the cause of that losing streak?

There is another porblem that can cause such a problem as well, but needs to be healed very different to "overconfidence". I'm talking about being "burned out" or a kind of being mentally overtraded. That means you are neither willing to concentrate fully on trading nor are you able to concentrate fully on trading at that time. As long as the trades are running in your direction, everything seems to be fine. But with the first problem your mindset is not strong enough to do the right decisions at the right time.

I'm insisting in asking you about that different causes, because fighting overconfidence when there is no overconfiodence will take you most probably several steps back on your learning curve. It can cause the loss of confidence again up to the reapperance of some types of fear.

To be "overtraded" can be cured easily by taking some days off.

Best regards,
MaMood
  • #6,533
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:40am Apr 8, 2009 4:40am
Hurm.. ok Mamood, I'll give it a rest. Cheers
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,534
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:27am Apr 8, 2009 5:27am
I wonder where FTI sir is ...
maybe he is building a new bank
or has overtaken citibank

oh yea been shorting euro , yet to see some hard sellers ... currently squared with 0.1 %
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,535
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:43am Apr 8, 2009 5:43am
overconfidence and false sense of invincibility comes first.

second step is to increase sizes due to the above reason.

third step is to loose focus and concentration (as this method requires 100% screen time), easy to loose focus and enter the gaming/net browsing world..

especially on the winning trades. a loser has an incredible ability to attract ones attention.

so now combining all that you have developed a mindset that will let you cut winners short and let losers run with the ability to rescue and false sense of security. martingale works excellent until one time..

the point i want to make and several people have said it before.. this is not what fti teachings is about. this is your very own interpretation/laziness.

change now or be doomed to fail.

if you don't feel like paying attention to the markets, don't trade. go out and have some fun.
  • #6,536
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:08am Apr 8, 2009 7:08am
Quoting piccolo
overconfidence and false sense of invincibility comes first.

second step is to increase sizes due to the above reason.

third step is to loose focus and concentration (as this method requires 100% screen time), easy to loose focus and enter the gaming/net browsing world..

especially on the winning trades. a loser has an incredible ability to attract ones attention.

so now combining all that you have developed a mindset that will let you cut winners short and let losers run with the ability to rescue and false sense of security. martingale...
Well put.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,537
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:54am Apr 8, 2009 7:54am
none selling euro yet , I ve been selling whole day
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,538
  • Edited 8:11am Apr 8, 2009 8:00am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting maheswara
none selling euro yet , I ve been selling whole day
Hi maheswara

Not you remember important levels?

... no water to flow straight

tease you



PS: We all do business this - psychology of other traders.

  • #6,539
  • Apr 8, 2009 8:09am Apr 8, 2009 8:09am
Quoting maheswara
none selling euro yet , I ve been selling whole day
I sold some too, but only quick runs today as it resisted to go down.
  • #6,540
  • Apr 8, 2009 8:13am Apr 8, 2009 8:13am
Quoting Gro
Hi maheswara

Not you remember important levels?

... no water to flow straight

tease you


yea wasnt flowing , simply kept believing current downtrend still prevails...
anyway might stop for today unless NY starts selling , but looks like dow influencing her a lot...
so might simply watch , hows ur dancing ? caught the euro bull ?

@piccolo,
good thinking , I was so stuck up , I kept rescuing and reinstating my scout for 3 times ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
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