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Silent Service Method

  • #961
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:08pm Apr 6, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Been watching this one all day, waiting 2 more hours to see how it closes. In the meantime lets see what Clockwork thinks.
My close is at 5PM EST. what is the more commonly used close time? Thanks
  • #962
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:16pm Apr 6, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
Looking at a set up for a possible short on kiwi.

Daily Pin bar (daily bar closed as a Pin, although screen shot below shows it 30 mins prior to bar close)
Divergence on 4H
Weekly support 0.5950
Overall trend - Bearish

any thoughts CW?
I am already short this one from the 4 hour pinbar (edit - I should say the pseudo pinbar. I know it wasn't perfect, but just look at where it stopped! 60.)
  • #963
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:17pm Apr 6, 2009 5:17pm
I honestly dont know the answer to that question, I think it depends on your broker. I use IBFX, and I am located in Arizona, which currently has joined PST. My daily closes at 8pm Est or 5pm Pst.

Quoting Dopped Onion
My close is at 5PM EST. what is the more commonly used close time? Thanks
  • #964
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:17pm Apr 6, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
CW - I had a question as to your E/J recent short. The trade went in your direction and then slightly against you (if I remember correctly?). Were you tempted to move your stop to break even or lock in some profits by moving stop lower? Maybe the nature of the set up warranted more time to let the trade run?

Thanks!
I let it run because of the set up, I felt it was worth giving it a shot to run. I don't always let 200 pips come and go like that, but I figured it was worth it. (I was right, luckily.)

I kinda feel the same about this NZD short......we will see how it behaves.

CW
  • #965
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:20pm Apr 6, 2009 5:20pm
In that case do you see anything wrong with entering it on the daily close then? I personally think this trade has room to move. What are your thoughts?

Quoting clockwork71
I am already short this one from the 4 hour pinbar (edit - I should say the pseudo pinbar. I know it wasn't perfect, but just look at where it stopped! 60.)
  • #966
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:22pm Apr 6, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting TraderJSS
I honestly dont know the answer to that question, I think it depends on your broker. I use IBFX, and I am located in Arizona, which currently has joined PST. My daily closes at 8pm Est or 5pm Pst.

IBFX is GMT based. I would prefer that in a broker, but I do not think it matters all that much.
  • #967
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:22pm Apr 6, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting TraderJSS
In that case do you see anything wrong with entering it on the daily close then? I personally think this trade has room to move. What are your thoughts?
No, daily bars are fine as well.
  • #968
  • Edited 6:23pm Apr 6, 2009 6:09pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting clockwork71
A chart we were watching on Wednesday in my webinar. Needless to say, I didn't take this trade. Ugh. (Had to work on Thursday, and plain forgot about it!) I got reminded by an email that someone sent me with a thanks for helping them make a lot of money. Oh well.
Both of the PB's in your chart are suspect at best. None of the noses are poking out from the rest of the bars. I understand they were at important areas but they didnt jump out at me.

Do you have a different way of approaching PA in the futures market or am I missing something?
  • #969
  • Apr 6, 2009 6:52pm Apr 6, 2009 6:52pm
Quoting BWise
Both of the PB's in your chart are suspect at best. None of the noses are poking out from the rest of the bars. I understand they were at important areas but they didnt jump out at me.

Do you have a different way of approaching PA in the futures market or am I missing something?

No, it has to do with two things: Location. (And it trumps everything)

And the charting at that particular site isn't the greatest. The charts look stretched out, so to speak.
  • #970
  • Apr 6, 2009 6:53pm Apr 6, 2009 6:53pm
hey CW,
how does the pinbar on USD/JPY look?
it's at a critical area (~100)
the nose is not terribly long but it looks decent
  • #971
  • Apr 6, 2009 7:08pm Apr 6, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting dengzhi
hey CW,
how does the pinbar on USD/JPY look?
it's at a critical area (~100)
the nose is not terribly long but it looks decent
Personally, I would like to see it clear 100 decisively first before shorting.
  • #972
  • Apr 6, 2009 7:14pm Apr 6, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
Personally, I would like to see it clear 100 decisively first before shorting.
Hey Chris,
Fx pro gave me a 8 hour pin.Looking at the weekly we are at a good place to short.I jumped in.divergence,I just see this at a good location.I may be wrong,but I have put a lot of thought into what you said "buying information".W'ell see what happens
  • #973
  • Apr 6, 2009 8:40pm Apr 6, 2009 8:40pm
Seems to me that 102 is a more significant level to watch for UJ than 100, if you zoom out on the weekly. And if you take the H4 and apply a fib on a recent swing...the 161.8 extension is 102. Seems like price could easily make it to 102. That's probably a better place to take notice of the next trade on this pair....my 2 cents.
Cheers
CanuckCT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #974
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:54pm Apr 6, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Seems to me that 102 is a more significant level to watch for UJ than 100, if you zoom out on the weekly. And if you take the H4 and apply a fib on a recent swing...the 161.8 extension is 102. Seems like price could easily make it to 102. That's probably a better place to take notice of the next trade on this pair....my 2 cents.
Cheers
CanuckCT
Truthfully, I see this more as a 200 pip thick line. A huge zone. This is why I think ultimately it's probably a short. These areas are really, really difficult to get through.

Great charts though, and there is nothing wrong with waiting until we get close to 102 if you choose to.
  • #975
  • Apr 6, 2009 11:49pm Apr 6, 2009 11:49pm
Hey guys just wanted to bring up a book that I read just today to attention if anyone is interested in a good read:

Warrior Trading: Inside the mind of an elite currency trader BY Clifford Bennett

I stumbled upon it randomly at my school's library and it incorporates MANY things talked about here, james16 and the similar threads. I was really impressed with the content as it literally put a lot of it in one place. A lot of it goes through the mental process of going through trades and had a scent of Sun Tzu's Art of War in it a little too. Overall lot of good general info as well as specifics, some good info on general market operations too since he used to work for investment banks and now runs his own research group and a fund I believe.

Anyways, if you're up for a good read try it out it's 170 pages easy read, bit entertaining for someone who doesn't read much for fun as myself even.
  • #976
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:50am Apr 7, 2009 3:50am
Hi all,

I wonder if anyone would like to summarise their exit strategy for this style of trading?

I seem to be getting better at entering trades using weekly s+r and candlestick patterns but sometimes feel tempted to exit positions early when more could have been made of the trade.

A few pages ago CW mentioned adding to a trade. The chart posted showed a number of areas where the price retraced upwards against the trend. A weaker stomached trader might have closed this trade on the first pullback.

What strategies do you have for determining whether to let a trade run and sit through a retrace or to cut the trade short and reenter after a retrace?
  • #977
  • Edited 4:23am Apr 7, 2009 4:21am | Edited 4:23am
Also I have a question about monthly pivot points.

CW, what is your opinion of pivot points? I notice you do not use them but you do watch MACD "because a lot of other people do", creating that self fulfilling prophecy aspect.

I have attached a chart from today. I am short EURJPY after yesterdays PA around the 1.37 level. I am not sure if those trendlines are helping or hindering but they seem to be working for now.

Getting back to the point, it could be argued that the 1.37 level in conjunction with the monthly R1 level makes for a stronger area of resistance? Of course there are plenty of times that the pivot levels are just completely ignored.

I would appreciate your advice, are they a fairly harmless addition to the chart which may help or should I just hit that delete button and forget them?

Thanks in advance and thanks for all your time and effort on this thread so far. H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy mr1 example.GIF Size: 57 KB
  • #978
  • Apr 7, 2009 6:06am Apr 7, 2009 6:06am
Quoting hel13rock
Also I have a question about monthly pivot points.

CW, what is your opinion of pivot points? I notice you do not use them but you do watch MACD "because a lot of other people do", creating that self fulfilling prophecy aspect.

I have attached a chart from today. I am short EURJPY after yesterdays PA around the 1.37 level. I am not sure if those trendlines are helping or hindering but they seem to be working for now.

Getting back to the point, it could be argued that the 1.37 level in conjunction with the monthly R1 level makes for a stronger...
H,
I am a relative newbie, but I don't know anyone on this thread or the James16 Chart Thread that use floor trader pivot points. Instead, we use support/resistance levels and call them Price Pivot Zones, PPZ. Those zones act as much much stronger areas than the floor trader pivots (FTP). If a FTP is located at a PPZ, it is just coincidence for me. I suppose enough traders do use the FTP though, which could create that 'self fulfilling prophecy.'

This is just my 2 cents,

Josh
  • #979
  • Apr 7, 2009 6:15am Apr 7, 2009 6:15am
Quoting Jduester
H,
I am a relative newbie, but I don't know anyone on this thread or the James16 Chart Thread that use floor trader pivot points. Instead, we use support/resistance levels and call them Price Pivot Zones, PPZ. Those zones act as much much stronger areas than the floor trader pivots (FTP). If a FTP is located at a PPZ, it is just coincidence for me. I suppose enough traders do use the FTP though, which could create that 'self fulfilling prophecy.'

This is just my 2 cents,

Josh
The problem with floor trader pivots in forex is that each broker will have different pivots due to different closing times, thus different pivots. It might be a different story if there was a standardized time that the brokers used to close their day.
  • #980
  • Apr 7, 2009 6:22am Apr 7, 2009 6:22am
Quoting Jduester
I suppose enough traders do use the FTP though, which could create that 'self fulfilling prophecy'.
Josh
Thanks for your reply Josh,

That being the case then would it not be wise to have these lines drawn on your chart to provide further information about why certain price action is happening at a certain level? Maybe an area may look like very weak s/r on the weekly chart but a pivot level may give you a clue as to why price is reversing there, etc?

At the end of the day CW doesn't use them so they are simply not required. I don't want to dilute the thread with a discussion of an indicator that is not required. However, I would be interested to find out if there are any other people using them in conjunction with CW's very simple weekly s/r zone method?
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