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Gbp/jpy Trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:11pm Apr 6, 2007 8:07am | Edited 4:11pm
I have been asked to comment on some of my findings regarding trading the GBP/JPY pair. I have spent several months and several 18-20 hour days studying and learning how this pair trade. Although I am sure I am a long way from knowing everything I should and would like to know about them, I have found some very intersting concepts that I would like to share with those that are interested in trading this pair. I would also welcome anyone with addtional information concerning GBPJPY to enlighten us with your ideas and thoughts that would benefit us all to be better traders.

First the place to start is understanding the relationship that exists between this pair GBP/JPY. It is the product of the following pairs. GBP/USD and USD/JPY, if you multiply the value of the 2 together you will come up with the approximate value at all times for GBP/JPY. Considering that the GBP/JPY are a pair in itself and trade independently you will be amazed how the other two pair's product reflect the actual price of the GBP/JPY within a few pips.

Once I discovered that, I spent a lot of time trying to see if there was a point that if GBP/JPY got too far away from this formula of multiplying the other two values together that might give me a heads up to some type of price movement coming. So far after spending more hours then I would like to admit to I found none. In fact the price of GBP/JPY follows a pattern so closely of this product that it is hard to find any variance 99% of the time.

So, finding nothing there I tracked on. My next efforts lead me to studing the usd/jpy more closely in its relationship to the pair. Now what I am going to explain next I am sure that someone has a better way to explain but here is my explaination of this important finding.

When you multiply 2 numbers to together to get a product. Example 2 times 10 = 20 , 3 times 10 = 30 2 times 11 = 22 I am sure everyone is still with me here right ? Okay first I increased the smaller number (2) by 1 making it 3, then I increased the larger number (10) by 1 making it 11. The product of the two increased at different percentage although they both values before multiplication were just increased by 1 both times... the first answer 30 is 50% more then 20, but the second answer 22 is only 20% more, yet the values both times were increased by only 1. Believe me this is not higher math here, but is important.

So when you multiply the value of usd/jpy times gbp/usd the same thing is happening . When the usd/jpy increasing in value 1 pip and the gbp/usd stays the same the value for gbp/jpy increases a higher percentage making it move more pips then when the value of usd/gbp increase by only 1 pip. You may need to read this a few times to fully understand but here is the outcome.

When the usd/jpy moves 1 pip up the gbp/jpy moves up more because of there relationship to their formula of usd/jpy times gbp/usd = gbp/jpy value.
Most of everything I know about this pair is because of the above.

Examples:

1. usd/jpy moves up or down 1 pip = gbp/jpy moves up or down more then 1 pip

2. usd/jpy moves up 1 pip and gbp/usd moves down 1 pip at same time = gbp/jpy to still move up . and same on the opposite

3. usd/jpy moves up 1 pip and gbp/usd moves up 1 pip = gbp/jpy moves up more then 2 pips and same on opposite down move.

1st conclusion is if both usd/jpy and gbp/usd moving in the same direction then gbp/jpy is rapidly moving in the same direction by more then the total pips combined of the other 2. This is why the daily range on the GBP/Jpy is the highest of all pairs.

More to follow....
  • #2
  • Apr 6, 2007 9:29am Apr 6, 2007 9:29am
thanks for posting. i will be following this for sure.
  • #3
  • Edited 10:06am Apr 6, 2007 9:54am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting Forex1man
........
1. usd/jpy moves up or down 1 pip = gbp/jpy moves up or down more then 1 pip

2. usd/jpy moves up 1 pip and gbp/usd moves down 1 pip at same time = gbp/jpy to still move up . and same on the opposite

3. usd/jpy moves up 1 pip and gbp/usd moves up 1 pip = gbp/jpy moves up more then 2 pips and same on opposite down move.

1st conclusion is if both usd/jpy and gbp/usd moving in the same direction then gbp/jpy is rapidly moving in the same direction by more then the total pips combined of the other 2. This is why the daily range on the GBP/Jpy is the highest of all pairs.

More to follow....
Hello,

I’ve been studying this mathematics some time ago. I discovered that brokers (oanda, marketiva, mig, etc) also play a part in displaying quotation than purely the mathematical multiplication.

Here is some example from marketiva using same time frame. For same time frame we only can take the “open” and “close” data because the “high” and “low” data is come from different time. It takes different time to occur. But “open” and “close” is extremely close to each other to occur, or we can say, it happened at the exactly same time. But you can see some different also in here:

http://picnac.com/images/6312untitled.jpg

As you can see, there’s a significant change in pips. The first price happen at marketiva today 06 April 2007 19.35 to 19.40, second one 19.40 to 19.45, during the NFP….

The below “open” and “close” data is the difference between “open” and “close” data. Negative mean bearish, positive mean bullish.

I’ve been collecting this kind of data on many kind of situation. Breakout from GBP, breakout from JPY, NFP release, Interest rate release, and I’ve been collecting also the 5 min to 1 month data collection. The result surprise me. Why sometimes it close to each other (my meaning is the actual multiplication and the broker quotation), the other time it’s very far away (20 pips more)?

How do you think???
  • #4
  • Apr 6, 2007 11:12am Apr 6, 2007 11:12am
ne question popped in my mind what match pattern you use to get the diffrense rate on this one?

sorry for simple question but i need information bangged in my head befour i get it properly!

Take it easy
Mother
  • #5
  • Apr 6, 2007 12:25pm Apr 6, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting laodeabdul
Hello,

I’ve been studying this mathematics some time ago. I discovered that brokers (oanda, marketiva, mig, etc) also play a part in displaying quotation than purely the mathematical multiplication.

Here is some example from marketiva using same time frame. For same time frame we only can take the “open” and “close” data because the “high” and “low” data is come from different time. It takes different time to occur. But “open” and “close” is extremely close to each other to occur, or we can say, it happened at the exactly same time. But you can see some different also in here:

http://picnac.com/images/6312untitled.jpg

As you can see, there’s a significant change in pips. The first price happen at marketiva today 06 April 2007 19.35 to 19.40, second one 19.40 to 19.45, during the NFP….

The below “open” and “close” data is the difference between “open” and “close” data. Negative mean bearish, positive mean bullish.

I’ve been collecting this kind of data on many kind of situation. Breakout from GBP, breakout from JPY, NFP release, Interest rate release, and I’ve been collecting also the 5 min to 1 month data collection. The result surprise me. Why sometimes it close to each other (my meaning is the actual multiplication and the broker quotation), the other time it’s very far away (20 pips more)?

How do you think???

One of my main reasons for starting this thread was to find out who else in this maze of worldwide forex traders was looking at some of the same things I was and watching their relationship. I honestly do not have any thoughts on what you are observing and the reasoning for it. Here is what I think is a possibility: since the gbp/jpy is a separate pair and people are trading it as so, there must be moments that it cannot be the true multiplication of the other 2 pair. Also since we are using only data supplied to us from our brokers who step in and widen and change the spread every second to their benefit, we will find times that their values are not a constant. My work initially was to find that time and figure out a way to make a trade that would be beneficial. Like a hedge type trade. I was never able to constantly find those times and if so, how to react to them that would turn into a positive trade. So, after spending way to much time there I went off looking for other issues that I could deal with to make positive trades. I am not saying they are not there, I am saying I could not find enough and also didn't now what to do with them when I found one. Please keep me informed on your studies in this area.
  • #6
  • Apr 6, 2007 12:34pm Apr 6, 2007 12:34pm
Quoting Mother
ne question popped in my mind what match pattern you use to get the diffrense rate on this one?

sorry for simple question but i need information bangged in my head befour i get it properly!

Take it easy
Mother

Believe me no question is to simple for me to answer. First, I am not sure I understand your question, if it relates to what do I actually watch in terms of charts and the patterns, I will cover most of that in coming days has I finish explaining my studies and trading of the GBP/JPY. If not could you be more specific in your question, maybe use an example? I will add more over the weekend, happy hoildays ....
  • #7
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:05pm Apr 6, 2007 1:05pm
OK...

30 IS 50% more than 20
However, 22 is 10% more than 20...did I miss something?

Quoting Forex1man
When you multiply 2 numbers to together to get a product. Example 2 times 10 = 20 , 3 times 10 = 30 2 times 11 = 22 I am sure everyone is still with me here right ? Okay first I increased the smaller number (2) by 1 making it 3, then I increased the larger number (10) by 1 making it 11. The product of the two increased at different percentage although they both values before multiplication were just increased by 1 both times... the first answer 30 is 50% more then 20, but the second answer 22 is only 2% more, yet the values both times were increased by only 1. Believe me this is not higher math here, but is important.
  • #8
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:21pm Apr 6, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting mrmikal
OK...

30 IS 50% more than 20
However, 22 is 10% more than 20...did I miss something?
I believe you're right mrmikal; it must be a typo.
  • #9
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:26pm Apr 6, 2007 1:26pm
F,

Thanks for sharing your insights...at this point, it sounds like a start of something, but obviously, there isn't much here yet to discuss.

The question is how can you use this mathematical information to trade?

In theory, you are correct, finding arbitrage in the forex market is close to a lost cause if you're using a single broker to find it. If you use multiple brokers, then arbitrage could be easier to spot and exploit, however, one thing to make sure you're constantly aware of us is the spread between all of these pairs.

When you are doing your calculations, the GBP/JPY has 2 components a bid and ask component, which can further complicate the process.

Again, I'm sure you'll start sharing some useful info here soon enough, but I do want to make sure that your multiplication math is based in reality (which includes spread).

Incidentally, you would also think that the reason the GBP/JPY has such a high spread on most retail brokers is precisely for the multiplication reasons...if the GBP/USD has a spread of 4 and the USD/JPY has an average spread of 2, then you'd get an 8 pip spread on the GBP/JPY. Furthermore, for ECN math...if the average spread of the GBP/USD is 2 and the USD/JPY spread is 1, then you're looking at 2 pips for the spread on the GBP/JPY. So, you're right...it all works out.

One thing I'd like to make sure we're not doing is pigeon-holing the GBP/JPY as simply the product of the 2 rates...that simply isn't true...the reasons for movements in the various pairs is caused fundamentally by the strength of the various pairs in relation to each other. In other words, the GBP/JPY doesn't move BECAUSE of the movements of the GBP/USD and USD/JPY...the movements in all 3 pairs occurs because one or more of the currencies moves in relative strength to the other currencies...that is, if the GBP becomes "strong" both the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY rates will move in the same direction. How much they move will be a product of how much strength the other 2 currencies have in relation to each other.

Think of it this way...let's assign variable names here for simplicity:

GBP/JPY = GJ
GBP/USD = GU
USD/JPY = UJ

what you said is true:
GU * UJ = GJ

However, because of both the communicative and transitive laws the following is also true:

GJ/GU = UJ
GJ/UJ = GU

in other words, the movements of the various rates don't necessarily CAUSE rates to move, but instead have a natural relationship to describe the movements.

Simply put, the movements of the trio of rates is caused by the variations in relative strength of the underlying currencies that support them.
  • #10
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:13pm Apr 6, 2007 2:13pm
Hi Forex1man,
Your observation of bgp/jpy is valuable . Please continue your excellent
explanation.
Thanks
  • #11
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:21pm Apr 6, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting Forex1man
Believe me no question is to simple for me to answer. First, I am not sure I understand your question, if it relates to what do I actually watch in terms of charts and the patterns, I will cover most of that in coming days has I finish explaining my studies and trading of the GBP/JPY. If not could you be more specific in your question, maybe use an example? I will add more over the weekend, happy hoildays ....




uh sorry my english! let me organise my brain and put it other way :o)

from your first message:
GBP/USD and USD/JPY, if you multiply the value of the 2 together you will come up with the approximate value at all times for GBP/JPY.


how did you multiply this two curreny pairs value? and what numbers you are playing with. can you give in math patters.


thanks!
Mother
  • #12
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:40pm Apr 6, 2007 2:40pm
30 is 150% of 20

20 * 1.5 = 30;

now, i love this analysis made by the thread starter but is it useful? could be.

Look at a NFP report on a chart and compare the gbpjpy chart to the usdjpy and gbpjpy...see it now?
  • #13
  • Apr 6, 2007 3:53pm Apr 6, 2007 3:53pm
With all due respect, I feel none of what you have stated here is of practical use in trading. You can use ANY 2 of the three pairs to calculate the price of the third...there is no magic in that. The magic is to predict the movement of the third pair accurately, which is impossible because you do not know the movements of the other 2 beforehand. Maybe the folks who love to scalp could use this stuff, based on delays in the market reaction of different pairs..but it is not really feasible in my humble opinion.

However, it is true that a very active pair (e.g USD/JPY) may have one-way influence on those which are traded in far smaller volumes , but again this will not affect trading decisions very much because they will be mirrored in both charts.

My 2 pips, and sorry for sounding arrogant (know you spent a long time on it), but hey, by looking at the charts for a long time at least you have a feel for how it moves better than most people.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14
  • Apr 6, 2007 4:02pm Apr 6, 2007 4:02pm
well, i disagree. ECN's Provide arb traders redemtion. but i agree that ARB alone wont work
  • #15
  • Apr 6, 2007 5:53pm Apr 6, 2007 5:53pm
Thanks for all the post to the thread so far. First this thread will never be a signal calling thread to tell you when to buy or sell. This is not the purpose of the thread. The purpose of the thread is to learn a little more about what we are actually trading and why they move in the directions they are going in at specific times. In order to explain some of my trading concepts I needed to get a little of the basics out of the way, so that the how and why I do some of the following things will make more sense. Yes, I agree with some of the above posts that nothing so far is worth any money in your pocket but without that info, I would have had to answer a lot of questions that now have been answered.

First of all I only deal with the following usd/jpy - gbp/usd - gbp/jpy I trade all three pairs at differnent times depending on what I see happening. Over 90% of time I am trading the gbp/jpy pair only. I classify my trades in the gbp/jpy pair has the following: A - trades and B-trades C-trades

A - trades are trades that both the usd/jpy and gbp/usd are moving in the same direction either up or down. Depending on the strength of movement this can last from a few pips to well over 100 pips within a relative short period of time.

B - trades are trades which only one pair is moving with strength and the other pair is flat or with slight movement in either direction.

C - trades are trades where either the usd/jpy or gbp/usd are moving with strength but in opposite directions.

The 2 main players here are the usd/jpy and gbp/usd. I disagree with one of the above post that went into great depth explaining all the math involved here. I don't disagree with all the math calculations but disagree on the way the gbp/jpy reacts. First of all if you study the actual price movement of the gbp/jpy, it is a follower of the movement of either or both of the usd/jpy and gbp/usd and does not lead. The gbp/jpy generally does not move first, in fact it is the opposite. Almost 99% of the time you will see the usd/jpy or gbp/usd move then the gbp/jpy follows there strength. The odd thing is that gbp/jpy almost reacts that it does not have a life of its own, although we actually know it does.

So ARB plays here are not possible.

I track there movement in this matter. Almost any charting package will work here. I have a chart of the usd/jpy and a chart of usd/gbp and a chart of gbp/jpy side by side on a monitor. I watch this in serveral different time frames on different monitors. I like to start with1 minute then 5, then 15. All 1 minutes are side by side and so on. Generally for the 1 minute I like to use a closed line bar instead of normal bars or candlesticks. Easier to see the immediate direction of the movement with closed lines. Most of the time usd/jpy and gbp/usd are moving in opposite directions because of the their relationship to the usd. So most of the time you are watching for B and C trades. A- trades are the money trades and happen several times a day for different lengths of time. Many things can be used to help determine the strength of the trades but not a lot for the actual time or length. More on this part later.

A - trades generally have runs of 20 or more pips and many times into the 50,100 pip runs. In the longer runs several things happen that are very important and knowing these things help you stay in the long runs. Very few if any long runs are either straight up or down without stops along the way. In fact a typical run works like this; both usd/jpy and gbp/usd start off slowly in either a up or down movement. Gbp/jpy becomes very active because both usd/jpy and gbp/usd are moving in the same direction and will start moving 3 pips or more for each pip they are moving (reason see previous posts). Then one or both stop and one starts to continue on while the other goes flat. As long has usd/jpy is not turning and moving in the opposite direction with strength the gbp/jpy will continue the move up. Even if usd/jpy stops and goes flat and turns down but without much strength and if gbp/usd then goes up so will gbp/jpy. In a long run, this can happen several times over several minutes of the run. You can watch this happening and now be amazed and understand the basis of what is really happening and also lets you stay in the trade and feel comfortable of not having to take your profits quickly. Of course if they both turn in opposite direction and start moving against you it is time to exit, but if only one wait and see if the run won't continue. After you have spent hours watching charts with this knowledge you will actually be able to find most top and and bottoms of the runs of gbp/jpy. More to follow.
  • #16
  • Apr 6, 2007 6:02pm Apr 6, 2007 6:02pm
Quoting don perry
30 is 150% of 20

20 * 1.5 = 30;

now, i love this analysis made by the thread starter but is it useful? could be.

Look at a NFP report on a chart and compare the gbpjpy chart to the usdjpy and gbpjpy...see it now?

thanks! it was in there all the time :o)

and to plutonite! dont be too negative. all information is good.
"good" or "wrong". when you mangel all the new information in your head! wolla. open mind is 10 times better than tunnel belaf.
  • #17
  • Apr 6, 2007 6:09pm Apr 6, 2007 6:09pm
Quoting Plutonite
With all due respect, I feel none of what you have stated here is of practical use in trading. You can use ANY 2 of the three pairs to calculate the price of the third...there is no magic in that. The magic is to predict the movement of the third pair accurately, which is impossible because you do not know the movements of the other 2 beforehand. Maybe the folks who love to scalp could use this stuff, based on delays in the market reaction of different pairs..but it is not really feasible in my humble opinion.

However, it is true that a very active pair (e.g USD/JPY) may have one-way influence on those which are traded in far smaller volumes , but again this will not affect trading decisions very much because they will be mirrored in both charts.

My 2 pips, and sorry for sounding arrogant (know you spent a long time on it), but hey, by looking at the charts for a long time at least you have a feel for how it moves better than most people.
I totally agree with you. It is no rocket science that GBP/JPY is the product GBP/USD and USD/JPY, if anyone don't know this fact from the very beginning, then there is seriously something missing. Almost all currency pairs are directly related to USD in one way of another. So all pairs without the USD, ARE products of the corresponding USD pairs, nothing new here. There can't possible be a different pricing, other than from the product, common sense.

As for why USD/JPY has more influence on the GBP/JPY pair, that is no rocket either. USD/JPY is quoted in 2 decimal place and GBP/USD is quoted in 4 decimal place. An increase or decrease in a 2 decimal place figure is 100 times more than that of a similar move of a 4 decimal place figure! So of course USD/JPY has more influence. All this is pure maths, nothing complicated.
  • #18
  • Apr 6, 2007 6:43pm Apr 6, 2007 6:43pm
This is great stuff Forex1man. Forget the naysayers. Please keep writing I am most interested in what you are writing here.

Not sure if you have tried this yet, but I'll definitely fiddle with it....is taking the 2 pairs and working out the stochastic movement of the 2 pairs combined as one to see what the relationship is to the GBPJPY stochastic. This would provide you with a better visual of how much lead, if any you have on the GBPJPY. Might make for an interesting forecasting tool.

It would make sense if the GBPJPY is following the lead of the 2 pairs, that the stochastic movement of the combination would lead as well....without calculating it out completely, there should be equal moves but an offset in the time.

As in A*B=C where C lags A*B by t seconds
therefore
Stochastics (A*B) = Stochastic (C) where stochastic (A*B) leads stochastic (C) by t seconds
So plotting Stochastic (A*B) on one graph and Stochastic (C) on another graph should only vary by the offset in t seconds.

Interesting to see if t seconds is a constant or what variance there is to that lead in time and if it is of any use for trading.
  • #19
  • Apr 6, 2007 9:09pm Apr 6, 2007 9:09pm
Quoting mrmikal
....One thing I'd like to make sure we're not doing is pigeon-holing the GBP/JPY as simply the product of the 2 rates...that simply isn't true...the reasons for movements in the various pairs is caused fundamentally by the strength of the various pairs in relation to each other. In other words, the GBP/JPY doesn't move BECAUSE of the movements of the GBP/USD and USD/JPY...the movements in all 3 pairs occurs because one or more of the currencies moves in relative strength to the other currencies...that is, if the GBP becomes "strong" both the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY rates will move in the same direction. How much they move will be a product of how much strength the other 2 currencies have in relation to each other....
Quoting Forex1man

So ARB plays here are not possible.

I track there movement in this matter. Almost any charting package will work here. I have a chart of the usd/jpy and a chart of usd/gbp and a chart of gbp/jpy side by side on a monitor. I watch this in serveral different time frames on different monitors. I like to start with1 minute then 5, then 15. All 1 minutes are side by side and so on. Generally for the 1 minute I like to use a closed line bar instead of normal bars or candlesticks. Easier to see the immediate direction of the movement with closed lines. Most of the time usd/jpy and gbp/usd are moving in opposite directions because of the their relationship to the usd. So most of the time you are watching for B and C trades. A- trades are the money trades and happen several times a day for different lengths of time. Many things can be used to help determine the strength of the trades but not a lot for the actual time or length. More on this part later.

A - trades generally have runs of 20 or more pips and many times into the 50,100 pip runs. In the longer runs several things happen that are very important and knowing these things help you stay in the long runs. Very few if any long runs are either straight up or down without stops along the way. In fact a typical run works like this; both usd/jpy and gbp/usd start off slowly in either a up or down movement. Gbp/jpy becomes very active because both usd/jpy and gbp/usd are moving in the same direction and will start moving 3 pips or more for each pip they are moving (reason see previous posts). Then one or both stop and one starts to continue on while the other goes flat. As long has usd/jpy is not turning and moving in the opposite direction with strength the gbp/jpy will continue the move up. Even if usd/jpy stops and goes flat and turns down but without much strength and if gbp/usd then goes up so will gbp/jpy. In a long run, this can happen several times over several minutes of the run. You can watch this happening and now be amazed and understand the basis of what is really happening and also lets you stay in the trade and feel comfortable of not having to take your profits quickly. Of course if they both turn in opposite direction and start moving against you it is time to exit, but if only one wait and see if the run won't continue. After you have spent hours watching charts with this knowledge you will actually be able to find most top and and bottoms of the runs of gbp/jpy. More to follow.
Yes, I agree with Forex1man .

Although the GBPJPY is not directly come from major multiplication as I stated earlier (like broker modification and other factors) because it has their own characteristics like some post mention above. He is correct that GBPJPY is lagging compare to the major pair. I also don't know why this phenomenon happened.

Anyway, I attached the one hour data of open and close. And you can see that what the effect on GBPJPY from the 2 major GBPUSD and USDJPY. How bullish is the bullish and how bearish is the bearish from the major to determine the GBPJPY bullish/bearish…

Maybe, Forex1man, u can teach me how to trade this phenomenon . I’m excited to know that we can exploit these differences. As u know, knowing ≠ applying, and, my full respect for you for applying it into your trade .

The above sample of highlithing is show very interesting factor which is part of this combination :

GBPUSD USDJPY
Bear Flat
Bear Bull
Bear Bear
Bull Flat
Bull Bull
Bull Bear
Flat Flat
Flat Bull
Flat Bear

So please comments are welcome .
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 1 HOUR DATA.zip   59 KB | 413 downloads
  • #20
  • Apr 6, 2007 9:26pm Apr 6, 2007 9:26pm
Quoting Spudfyre
....As in A*B=C where C lags A*B by t seconds
therefore
Stochastics (A*B) = Stochastic (C) where stochastic (A*B) leads stochastic (C) by t seconds
So plotting Stochastic (A*B) on one graph and Stochastic (C) on another graph should only vary by the offset in t seconds.

Interesting to see if t seconds is a constant or what variance there is to that lead in time and if it is of any use for trading.
Yes, maybe, the other TA also. Not to mentioned the famous divergence.


Good idea, man....
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