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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #169,181
  • Apr 4, 2009 7:30pm Apr 4, 2009 7:30pm
I won't even bother posting a chart. We all know that geps is at a pivotal point (that 149 area was key support going back to 1993 at least). I would expect some kind of pullback before charging higher. Plus, does anyone else see that bearish hidden divergence on the weekly? I got the 50 ema at around 164, so I'm thinking after another correction, price will tag the weekly 50 ema and then more downside loving . . .

Additionally, tax receipts will be coming in at the end of the month in the US. This should be somewhat bullish for US equities even though they will be lower then in times past. When May comes though, it will be time to sell equities and geps too perhaps. Peace.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #169,182
  • Apr 4, 2009 8:29pm Apr 4, 2009 8:29pm
Quoting pino2
This is the top 6 of the FF big boys posting in Auslanco's thread lately:
1- Quecee5 (Master of swing trading)
2- Malcolmb14 (Master of Intraday trading)
3- Karmostaji (Master of QQE and gann)
4- Forexlion
5- Piters
6- Arezab
seriously??!!??
  • #169,183
  • Apr 4, 2009 8:36pm Apr 4, 2009 8:36pm
Maybe we gonna run something like this further out in time
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #169,184
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:39pm Apr 4, 2009 10:39pm
All the contributors here are to share and give us an opportunities to confirm the trend more precisely. Even great traders are also learning as well, no one is perfect That is the beauty of this threads.

If you left out someone else, they might not give any more opinions:-). We are all here to share and learn from each others. Keep post and update your charts / opinions, guys. Thanks.
  • #169,185
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:55pm Apr 4, 2009 11:55pm
Quoting pkimnyc
a very interesting count.... thanks.
hehehe.. thanks pkimnyc..
  • #169,186
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:08am Apr 5, 2009 12:08am
i have a feeling a correction next week...
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #169,187
  • Edited 12:59am Apr 5, 2009 12:23am | Edited 12:59am
Here is my weekly chart with possible outcomes.. . .

All the info is there if u study the chart:

1) 1st possible senario - we move up a bit to 149.50/150 (maybe) then a move down to 138/137/139 for a retrace abc retrace of the last wave. . . then back up to 167 area over the next few weeks which would be 50% correction from 118-215. . .

But there is some concerns with this because if this is a correction of that move then we should see it down in three waves from the entire move. . . so if this senario plays out that would mean that we should go higher than the 50% fib IMO b/c's at that point we are starting another 5 wave up structure in my opinion which mean that higher price is coming to complete a 3 wave or abc correction from 215. . . This would mean that we could retrace to 0.618 fibo of the entire move from 215-118 which puts us at 175/178/180's or slightly higher. . .

In discussing this with respected traders they think not - for many reasons that I won't discuss here. I will leave to u 2 decide. . .

2) 2nd possible senario - we correct to 0.618 fibo of the entire move all the way down to 130 area then back up to 167 area which would be done in 3 waves - which makes more sense IMO. . . that would be 118-149, 149-130, 130-167 = 3100 pips, 1900 pips and 3700 pips. . . seems to have a bit more symmetry. . .

3) 3rd possible senario - we keep moving up from here to 155/156/157 which would be would 38% move up from 118-215. . . which would make no sense. . . I would expect 5 waves up then 3 wave correction before a move higher for another 5 waves up. . . This to me would suggest a new low id forthcoming which is plausible. . . or we consolidate ar'd the 148/146 area then move higher to 167 - very plaisible.

Therefore I think - we could see senario 1 or 2 play out before senario 3

Here is my chart (weekly). .. will look at the charts in more detail and post more thoughts. . .

Just a note green/blue = 55 EMA

Either way this plays out I think we see 167 as a target for completion of this wave structure. . .

Note: 1hr/4hr are OB and daily look to have a bit of room to move up but we should see some type of retrace sooner rather than later so I'm thinking 150/151 area at best. . . (maybe). . .
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  • #169,188
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:49am Apr 5, 2009 12:49am
Quoting quecee5
Here is my weekly chart with possible outcomes.. . .

All the info is there if u study the chart:

1) 1st possible senario - we move up a bit to 149.50/150 (maybe) then ,ove down to 138/137 for a retrace abc retrace of the last wave. . . then back up to 167 area over the next few weeks which would be 50% correction from 118-215. . .

But there is some concerns with this because if this is a correction of that move then we should see it down in three waves from the entire move. . . so if this senario plays out that would been that we should go higher...
1
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #169,189
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:05am Apr 5, 2009 1:05am
Crazy Thought....

Weekly Chart...

Comments Welcome.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #169,190
  • Edited 1:56am Apr 5, 2009 1:25am | Edited 1:56am
Quoting Raza
Crazy Thought....

Weekly Chart...

Comments Welcome.

NOT SO GOOD WITH WAVE COUNT.... IS THIS POSSIBLE ????

LOOKS LIKE A WRONG COUNT..
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #169,191
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:40am Apr 5, 2009 1:40am
I think it will test the upper TL,then go back the lower TL.
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  • #169,192
  • Apr 5, 2009 3:15am Apr 5, 2009 3:15am
Quoting rgitt05
Today PA looks setup for a possible 2000 pips run to the daily fibs from 150 Zone 23.6% to 170 Zone 38.2 %...Buying dips is the strategy for this long swing.The fundamentals and TA looks bullish for this month.

If the 150 Resistance Zone holds than the PB to the Daily TL is the strategy to buy on the dips from the daily TL.. This month is going to be awesome for trend trading...Big pips to make this month...

Good Luck everyone!!

Hi R, I would love to know which fundies you are looking at.
The Uk economy is stuffed.
  • #169,193
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:33am Apr 5, 2009 7:33am
For Fundamentals and TA, I read from the

www.dailyfx.com
www.fx360.com

I read these websites for overall bias..Generally, I trade the charts..





Quoting stewrigh
Hi R, I would love to know which fundies you are looking at.
The Uk economy is stuffed.
[
  • #169,194
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:36am Apr 5, 2009 7:36am
Quoting quecee5
Piter,

Here is my plan for EU next week based on it's close last week. . .

1) I see a pull back from here to check supply/resistance up at the 1.3430 area as suggested by the 1hr/4hr chart (not posted here) - OS condition.

2) Upon a failure there one should look to short for a ride down to the 0.618 fib or support area there (1.30/1.2991)

3) Will re-evaluate once we get down to 1.30 area. . . however, we should have buyers there which should take up back up to 1.39/140/1.45 once we complete this corrective phase. . .

[b]All in all I see...
is this still on the move?
  • #169,195
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:40am Apr 5, 2009 7:40am
Now that is what I call a Plan

I like the Scenario #1 but Scenario sounds good also...

Trade your charts...

Anyway, the PA will go where the markets takes it to the least resistance..

Thanks Q for your fortune teller forecast $$$$...




Quoting quecee5
Here is my weekly chart with possible outcomes.. . .

All the info is there if u study the chart:

1) 1st possible senario - we move up a bit to 149.50/150 (maybe) then a move down to 138/137/139 for a retrace abc retrace of the last wave. . . then back up to 167 area over the next few weeks which would be 50% correction from 118-215. . .

But there is some concerns with this because if this is a correction of that move then we should see it down in three waves from the entire move. . . so if this senario plays out that would mean that...
[
  • #169,196
  • Apr 5, 2009 8:49am Apr 5, 2009 8:49am
Quoting malcolmb14
and me last ...I do not have a clue what I am doing lol
At least you made the list. hehehe
  • #169,197
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:05am Apr 5, 2009 9:05am
Quoting ovaforty
At least you made the list. hehehe

hahaa yes now everyone else should kill themselves.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #169,198
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:19am Apr 5, 2009 9:19am
Quoting rgitt05
For Fundamentals and TA, I read from the

www.dailyfx.com
www.fx360.com

I read these websites for overall bias..Generally, I trade the charts..


Thanks mate - interesting
  • #169,199
  • Apr 5, 2009 10:35am Apr 5, 2009 10:35am
Ok, this is what I am seeing, for what that is worth....
This move up on geppy is wave#3 of the correction to the fall from 215. It is a strong move up with a weekly close above the 22 sma.
Market Sentiment shifted last week from Doom and Gloom Risk Aversion to optimistim stemming from the agreement to do something about the global financial crisis and committing money to it.
Market Sentiment can change abruptly, as we all know.
As long as risk is tolerated we will see uptrends on yen crosses, aud and nzd pairs, and an interest in carry trades.
Strategy is to buy on pullbacks until risk aversion returns.

On the monthly chart I have drawn fibs of the fall from 251 (white fibs) and from 215 (green fibs). Geppy is just now testing the white 23 fib from 251. Upside targets are the green 38 fib, then the cluster fibs of the white 38 fib and green 50 fib. This pair loves the 50 fib.

The red horizontal trendlines represent swing lows and shows where the buying interest is building a base. This is where you want to be long from if the uptrend continues.
Notice the reversal candle pattern from January's candle. Look backwards on the red trendline to see where a previous swing low has been penetrated upwards and closed slightly above it.
Edit- Weekly moms all agreed as bullish pointing upwards. The 14 mom and the 10 mom are still way below their 100 level denoting the longer term downtrend. I will know more when I see the new weekly moms on the asian open.
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  • #169,200
  • Apr 5, 2009 10:53am Apr 5, 2009 10:53am
Weekly chart shows a close way above the 5 sma channel and the green 22 sma. Expect a pullback to retest the breakout of this area and monitor where the buying interest is residing.
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