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Martingale Baggio Method

  • #521
  • Jan 30, 2009 2:01pm Jan 30, 2009 2:01pm
Ok i'm going to explain beter the chages i need.

Now in the expert the Ma martingale works like this:

1st step at 1.1619 buy 0.1 lots
2nd step at 1.1589 buy 0.2 lots
3rd step at 1.1559 buy 0.4 lots
4th step at 1.1529 buy 0.8 lots
and so on

In the new version:

1st step at 1.1619 buy 0.1 lots with a stoploss at 1.1589
2nd step at 1.1589 buy 0.2 lots with a stoploss at 1.1559
3rd step at 1.1559 buy 0.4 lots with a stoploss at 1.1529
4th step at 1.1529 buy 0.8 lots with a stoploss at 1.1499
and so on

So, in the new version, when the 4th step buy 0.8 lots there are not the loses of the previews steps and the expert have more free margin for eventualy an other step and more if the quotation go in the right direction the last step reached, in this case the 4th, needs less pips for to achieve a gain.

  • #522
  • Jan 31, 2009 8:06am Jan 31, 2009 8:06am
Quoting Diego2049
Attached there are the original Rama version and the same version reviewed by me .

The reviews are only on the entry rules (you can check the program) and is a prerealise.

The system is not enough robust to make steady gains, but with the reviews i asked i think this system can become infallible.
Diego
Thanks for working on the new EA except I am getting compile errors can you look into it please.
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: errors.jpg Size: 379 KB
  • #523
  • Jan 31, 2009 8:25am Jan 31, 2009 8:25am
Quoting berdj
Diego
Thanks for working on the new EA except I am getting compile errors can you look into it please.
Thanks

You need some new files in the expertinclude folder.

Attached is my include folder zipped.
Add the new files to your include folder and retry.

Or read the thread.

Good work
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip include.zip   14 KB | 704 downloads
  • #524
  • Feb 5, 2009 2:49am Feb 5, 2009 2:49am
Hello,

I am also interested in MAmartingale and the idea of a stop loss between each standpoint is good. I am not a programmer but by arranging the code taken of universum 3 could perhaps solve this problem:

losses = 0;
double minlot = MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_MINLOT);
int round = MathAbs(MathLog(minlot) / MathLog(10.0)) + 0.5;
double result = lots;
int total = OrdersHistoryTotal();
double spread = MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_SPREAD);
double k = (tp + sl) / (tp - spread);
for (int i = 0; i < total; i++) {
OrderSelect(i, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_HISTORY);
if (OrderSymbol() == Symbol() && OrderMagicNumber() == mn) {
if (OrderProfit() > 0) {
result = lots;
losses = 0;
} else {
result = result * k;
losses++;
}
}
Regards
  • #525
  • Mar 20, 2009 3:55pm Mar 20, 2009 3:55pm
No fortune for the martingale stratery type through Alpari UK

http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/cnews/show/id/50/

ridiculous decission ?!
  • #526
  • Mar 21, 2009 12:25pm Mar 21, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting petrogin
No fortune for the martingale stratery type through Alpari UK

http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/cnews/show/id/50/

ridiculous decission ?!
You can run the EA but you will be limited to 2 full lots which is 8 stages
but you can adjust certain parameters like grid spacing to compensate.
Still it might be a form of protection not go over your limits. It isn't the worse thing. If the grid had 40 pips in each stage you could end up to 320 pips.
or you can vary your multiplier to less than 2 X such as 1.6 in which case you can go further. I am personally not a great fan of martingale since it is high risk and you may not want to go over the limit anyways. I agree they have placed limits which doesn't help us traders.

.01
.02
.04
.08
.16
.32
.64
1.28
  • #527
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:12pm Mar 22, 2009 4:12pm
Hi everybody:
First of all I must say that I blew my account for second time last year, and since then I tried one more time with the same final.

My total lost was USD 3.500, plus $30 monthly on the VPS service, necessary to keep running the EA 24 hs.

I must assume my own mistakes: I have taken too much risk. And I didn’t see that this trading style doesn’t work on trending markets. The best market conditions are on wide ranging ones or high volatile, such as news days. But on this last market conditions appears another problems: i.e. terminal disconnections, widening spreads, etc. all of them hurting your balance.

I also make the big mistake of keep my profits in the account. So if we must consider the true fall of my trading account from the top of the higher balance, this happened from USD 5.500.

I have tried too many indicators combinations as entry signals, on all the time frames. There are many of them with very good profits. But margin call is the constant of the model. It’s like death it self. You can be sure it will catch you, soon or later.

With this background it’s hard to me to believe that anybody could make consistent profits with all this stuff.

I must say this because I stopped posting on the forum. And this could make think the readers that I have found the holly grail and have left the market as a millionaire.

I have read other forums where the starter of the idea, or any other person who has made a contribution disappeared without telling the others how did they ended. And it’s very used also that many of the readers think that they reach their first million and quit the market.

Another important fact is, as you know, retail brokers are most of them scammers. With more or less care of the manners they are trading against you all the time, trying to cheating you with all the tools they found (legally or not). Remember they are not regulated, and SEC and NFA have showed how they work.

Finally, market conditions change all the time regarding the juncture. These must make changes on your trading parameters. But the notices could arrive with the margin call.

I’m in the fully convincement that FUNDAMENTAL analysis moves the market. And TECHNICAL analysis is an excellent tool to confirm the fundamental movement.

I have found that there are many other financial instruments more reliable, and you can use them with a kind of martingale, without an EA. For example: CFD or ETF. They are high regulated, offer low leverage, and you can trade long and/or short. The best part is that you don’t need to be glued to your charts.
Disadvantage is the higher balance necessary to follow this trading style and keep commissions reasonable.

This is my own opinion from a retail trader, in forex market since October 2006.

Of course there were some traders who have made profits from this. And still doing them. I couldn’t, and I feel I must tell everybody my experience, because I made public my support to martingale's.

For me it’s enough of Forex.

Just my two cents.

Good trades.

Rama
  • #528
  • Mar 24, 2009 6:17am Mar 24, 2009 6:17am
Hi Rama,

You’ve moved me to make my first post on this forum. I want to thank you for all your work on martingale EAs. As a newcomer to this forum but not to trading, I have spent the past two weeks reading, taking notes and comparing the EAs from the best threads on martingale and semi-martingale methods, and I had come to the conclusion that your EA was by far the most sophisticated of the lot. You also seemed to rise above the invidious flame wars and politics that have plagued the martingale discussion, quietly carrying out your programming efforts with unusual skill, diligence and generosity. I wanted to thank you for all of that but I didn’t know where you were after you disappeared from this forum in June of last year. When I woke up this morning thinking about your EA and returned to this thread I found your latest post. So let me take this opportunity to express my heartfelt gratitude for your outstanding contributions.

Unfortunately, now I also have to thank you for the warning in your last post! It is indeed rare that a programmer shows as much care for the welfare of those whose lives he has influenced as you have in your last post, but this is consistent with the integrity you’ve expressed throughout this thread. So thanks again, amigo. (And yes I did think you might have gone off to enjoy the millions made by using your EA!) I’m sorry to hear that you no longer consider martingale EAs to be a path toward millions. However, as much as I appreciate the warning , I don’t think I’m quite ready to give up on my search for a safe way to use martingale methods, particularly in dealing with whiplash in the early going of correct entries (the scourge of my own modest programming efforts). I had already concluded that a “sniper” approach using short-sequence semi-martingale methods was the only prudent way, and your post reinforces my thinking that the proper conditions might be found in the context of news events and awareness of fundamentals. I wonder if you would care to elaborate on this?

If not, that’s ok, I could understand your reluctance to re-involve yourself in this oh-so-fascinating subject after making a final effort to clear the slate! lol.

Mucho gracias,
traderjohn
  • #529
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:47am Apr 2, 2009 7:47am
You'd best listen to Rama... We have a lot of casualties here, incuding myself. The global credit crunch increased FX volailities by approximately 300%. This is no exaggeration. It is an UNDERESTIMATE. Linear regression will confirm this if you still disbelieve me.

This system worked in the past. I've made $$ on it, but I've lost more than I've made on aggregate. U'd best take our advice and find another way to play the markets.
  • #530
  • Edited 9:23am Apr 2, 2009 8:58am | Edited 9:23am
HI Rama,

I think I know how to keep this EA from blowing up.

I was wondering if you could make a small change to your EA that would prevent it from blowing up your account again like it did because of FOMC news. With this manor change I think it could be a very good money maker and you will never have to worry of an account blowup again.

Just change it so it only places orders after the first one when ema crosses AND pip steps are met.

Please see the attach picture for a clearer explanation.

thanks
Mike

Quoting Rama
Hi everybody:
First of all I must say that I blew my account for second time last year, and since then I tried one more time with the same final.

My total lost was USD 3.500, plus $30 monthly on the VPS service, necessary to keep running the EA 24 hs.

[font=Arial]I must assume my own mistakes: I have taken too much risk. And I didn’t see that this trading style doesn’t work on trending markets. The best market conditions are on wide ranging ones or high volatile, such as news days. But...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ilan2.gif Size: 74 KB
  • #531
  • Apr 2, 2009 9:29am Apr 2, 2009 9:29am
Quoting mike58
HI Rama,

I think I know how to keep this EA from blowing up.

I was wonder if you could make a small change to your EA that would prevent it from blowing up your account like it because of FOMC news. With this manor change I think it could be a very good money maker and you will never have to worry of account blowup again.

Just change it so it only places orders after the first one only on ema crosses AND pip steps is met.

Please see the attach picture for a clearer explanation.

thanks
Mike

My dear friend, I would like to point out to you that there is one major flaw with this trading style, and that is risk... Forget all the fancy charts and indicators, and consider this scenario:

The market moves 10 handles, or 1000 pips unidirectionally. Happens pretty often on quite a few pairs these days. What settings are you going to use to prevent the margin call?

The strategy goes like this:

1) 0.01
2) 0.02
3) 0.04
4) 0.08
5) 0.16
6) 0.32
7) 0.64
8) 1.28
9) 2.56

By the time you've hit the 9th order, you've purchased a grand total of 5.11 lots! That's US$5110 for you on USD base pairs such as Cable and EURUSD! Your margin's depleted and you receive a margin call. You're banking on a reversal/retrace which isn't about to happen in the next few days/or weeks/or never.

The martingale works when prices revert. When they move unidirectionally, the martingale fails miserably.

If you don't believe me, go ahead and try it out. Use Swiss Army Knife order management system to help you out. Or if you can't be bothered, just run your account without stop losses. On any pipstep setting. I guarantee you'll regret it.

I watched as Xaron's and rama's accounts blew up. I used order management, and stayed in the game for a while longer, watching my stop losses get hit time after time, and my account balance depleting. You will never know how it feels to lose so hard until you try it for yourself.

So go ahead. Learn your painful lesson. From your post, I know you won't be convinced by well-intentioned words. The only thing capable of disciplining a trader is the market itself. Good Luck and Happy Learning.
  • #532
  • Apr 2, 2009 9:57am Apr 2, 2009 9:57am
anything with consecutive averaging down is doomed to fail for sure
  • #533
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:05pm Apr 3, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Diego2049
Hi everybody,

this is my first time writing on this forum, I find the Baggio Method very good , I did some updates to the entry’s ruels and I’m testing it.

I’ve attached the last backtest so you can check it as well.

I’m writing to ask a variation to the software, maybe to Rama or anyone able to do it, I’m not good enough to make changes at the deep level .

The idea of mine is to change this rule:
when the quotation reaches the next step level the software automaticly enable a stop loss to the previews step level.
With this behave,...

hy...can you help with this error? occurs every time...
please ... thanks ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: err.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #534
  • Apr 4, 2009 9:33pm Apr 4, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting Musulin
hy...can you help with this error? occurs every time...
please ... thanks ...
You must enable expert advisors. See bottom signaled in yellow.
Attached Image
  • #535
  • Apr 4, 2009 9:43pm Apr 4, 2009 9:43pm
Quoting mike58
HI Rama,

I think I know how to keep this EA from blowing up.

[...]

Just change it so it only places orders after the first one when ema crosses AND pip steps are met.

Please see the attach picture for a clearer explanation.

thanks
Mike
Sounds very interesting. Which are the settings of the ema?

PD: I'm working on a new version that improves the order's manage basic logic, delete parameters not used, and reorder code for easier understanding by anybody. So changes can be made easier.

Rama
  • #536
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:30pm Apr 4, 2009 10:30pm
Well, if you want to add some longevity to this system, what I can tell you is this:

1) Use factorlot 1.5
2) Maxtrades should not exceed 6
3) Code the EA such that it places a maximum of 3 orders per hour. So that you won't buy all the way up a spike or sell all the way down.

Martingales can work. It's just that I find automated martingales don't. Martingales work on the basis that each time you make a trade, there is a 50% chance of the market moving in your favour. This assumption is violated by fixing pipsteps when you trade against a trend: Conditional probabilities are no longer 50%. A new order should only be placed where there is a period of consolidation (where market direction truly is a random walk).

Using an EMA crossing isn't going to solve all your problems. The EMA becomes flat after a period of consolidation just before a trend breakout, and I can see it solving some problems, but not all. IMO, it'll still blow up in the end w/o monitoring.
  • #537
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:33pm Apr 4, 2009 10:33pm
Rama,

I use 8 x 20 ema.

Thanks
mike





Quoting Rama
Sounds very interesting. Which are the settings of the ema?

PD: I'm working on a new version that improves the order's manage basic logic, delete parameters not used, and reorder code for easier understanding by anybody. So changes can be made easier.

Rama
  • #538
  • Last Post: Apr 6, 2009 6:23am Apr 6, 2009 6:23am
Quoting Musulin
hy...can you help with this error? occurs every time...
please ... thanks ...

I did it, but the same error occurs ... what to do next?
thanks

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