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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,461
  • Edited 6:47am Apr 2, 2009 6:13am | Edited 6:47am
wow,
I am wrong completely , been shorting euro , large part of it due to the news thats coming out ...
but not too bad , managing tightly , scalping here n there , position been slowly reduced to scout size
loss booked 0.5% , unbooked 1% ...
still inside day limit ...

hows everyone els doing... anyone listening only to what she says would never go wrong ...

edit: booked loss totally 1.2% , squared , waiting for news in 3 mins ,

good trading to all


edit2: good thing I booked that loss , jumped 75 pips , 1.25 bid rate instead of 1 ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,462
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:59am Apr 2, 2009 6:59am
Quoting maheswara
wow,
I am wrong completely , been shorting euro , large part of it due to the news thats...
I booked a medium loss during lunch hours.. Since a few hours ago, I've been eating/scalping bit by bit and I've recovered it + 0.7% profit by being a bear.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,463
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:28am Apr 2, 2009 7:28am
Quoting hpr
I booked a medium loss during lunch hours.. Since a few hours ago, I've been eating/scalping bit by bit and I've recovered it + 0.7% profit by being a bear.
BE for the day , loss recovered,
lets see wats Trichett says now,might get volatile
be nimble ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,464
  • Apr 2, 2009 8:10am Apr 2, 2009 8:10am
Quoting maheswara
BE for the day , loss recovered,
lets see wats Trichett says now,might get volatile
be nimble ...
I do not know what he said...
and since yesterday I decided to extrictly focus on
my charts...I do not really care...
but
He just gave me my day target with only a 5 min bar.
Done for the day...
Enjoy the rides.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,465
  • Apr 2, 2009 8:25am Apr 2, 2009 8:25am
Quoting luSan
I do not know what he said...
and since yesterday I decided to extrictly focus on
my charts...I do not really care...
but
He just gave me my day target with only a 5 min bar.
Done for the day...
Enjoy the rides.
yup,
chart never lies
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,466
  • Apr 2, 2009 8:42am Apr 2, 2009 8:42am
Quoting hpr
Been riding this move. Why are people so bullish today?
HI, I am not USD bullish.

I longed G/U and E/U, but made 100 pips less due to avoid chet's talk.
  • #6,467
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:48pm Apr 2, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I understand, I would say that you can use your experience of watching PA and your knowledge of chart formations, blend this with an understanding of the structure of the forex market which will hopefully help you to understand the way it moves, and use all this against the background of what you perceive the current trend to be (and the current fundamental forces), to take positions in the market.

Having said all that, it's...
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

ukman, I think you need to focus on the deeper teachings here. We are not predicting the market but rather feeling it. Perhaps you need to go over the Art of War again and relate it to the market. Here are some things to think about:

Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waits for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

Hence the skilful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.

Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

So when you can relate that to trading, you should know within yourself that you are ready. On a personal level, I spent most of last year in my temple absorbing this thread (although I've only read it once) and started trading again less than 3 months ago (even though my work contract keeps getting extended). The results have been amazing so keep at it. The answers are here - you just need to find them.
  • #6,468
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:11pm Apr 2, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I underst..........
Hi ukmanthailan

... maybe a little help from the fiber.
FTI - "Look, I had said many times, S/R means nothing, only the way she dances it.
He dance sequense can lead you either thru it or on it, IT MEANS NOTHING.
Patterns tells you what type of MM is most likely. Instead you think about pattern when you should be reviewing strategy and position, How to protect your book if you are wrong , how to prepare for attack, what the arkets mode is, These are the important things to be thinking of. You already got PA done yet you keep at whats's being shown, instead of preparing your book."

  • #6,469
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:28pm Apr 2, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting Zoran
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

ukman, I think you need to focus on the deeper teachings here. We are not predicting the market but rather feeling it. Perhaps you need to go over the Art of War again and relate it to the market. Here are some things to think about:

[color=blue]Sun Tzu...
This was very nice...worthy to consider...thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,470
  • Apr 3, 2009 8:49am Apr 3, 2009 8:49am
Thanks to everyone for their advice. Some thought-provoking stuff.
  • #6,471
  • Edited 11:38am Apr 3, 2009 10:56am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks to everyone for their advice. Some thought-provoking stuff.
Hi ukmanthailan

Yet my experience.
Everything that is written must understand and not pull anything out of context.If I understand the whole thing, it is important to experience it (internalize) = tRaInInG.Brain has a great ability to adaptability,to change the incorrect thinking and able to perceive the wider context.

I personally it what FTI describes, trying to live in daily life.It must be my own natural behavior and thinking.

scout = always be prepared (not to be careless)
AoW = ......................................................


PS:........font(writing) is without color and odor
  • #6,472
  • Apr 3, 2009 9:00pm Apr 3, 2009 9:00pm
Quoted from FTI, taken from post #46 in this thread………………….

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"the other improtant, read, is the market form.

I try to recognise the compounded formatioms in the bar charts.
A good reference to forms study wasdone by a researcher, by the name of John R.Hill,
I'm not sure if his studys are available to the masses.
They read compound chart formations.
An understanding of Hip and Lop patterns is foundational requirement.

A complimentary methodology is by complex candle chart formations.
I find the books (in english) on this too elementary.
I used to have an understudy who had a copy of the "secret" readings by rice traders in nihongo.
Unfortunately I've no contact with him for a long time since and my development on that has stalled.

I must stress, "never ever play god to the markets."
always stay in the "dance", feeling its moods and tempo,
using technical accrument to read the dance.
Implementing damage control when out of step.
That's actually money management.(another time)
Many analyst, behaves like fortune tellers, that is wrong.

All an analyst can master, is the art of dancing along with the market,
and recognising its behaviour as the dance progresses.
It is an on going process, not one read and you khow all, that cannot happen.
The markets are alive.

In a nutshell, There are other components necessary, other than technical analysis skills,
mindset, money moneymanagement are equaliy critical."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

fwiw..............

a

edit: I dont know where all the anti-TA sentiment comes from...... how it's used is the key, not the actual analysis.
  • #6,473
  • Edited 5:49am Apr 4, 2009 5:27am | Edited 5:49am

My understanding Technical Analysis:


My mind is in the background - time window.

My mind consciously observe - candle forms next candle.(7 average 3) + Scout -

focus on market activity, as a conduit for market form.Its positioning is of no consiquense to trade but to lead.

Patterns means nothing. , only the way she dances it.

Patterns tells you what type of MM is most likely.

Crisis is opportunity in adversity
nimble to change.
Prompt actions when the time window opportunities opens.
Patience when the terrain is unclear.
Confidence in your analitical ability and contingency capacity.
Ability to subdue ego, and follow the markets lead and hints.
Guts - Ability to risk without panic and disorientation.
Conservative when in doubt or when position is adverse.

Regards

  • #6,474
  • Apr 4, 2009 6:27am Apr 4, 2009 6:27am
After reading these good reminders that you guys are bringing up it sure motivates one to reread the thread.
  • #6,475
  • Edited 7:38am Apr 4, 2009 7:00am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting lilpip
After reading these good reminders that you guys are bringing up it sure motivates one to reread the thread.

.............read no help, .......to live this

No internalize this = old bad habits (EGO) destroy the right mindset(this is my experience).

Certainty is for me - complacency ... when I have got certainty in markets , is that a for me very warning sign!

  • #6,476
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:53pm Apr 4, 2009 12:53pm
I hope it's clear to everyone that the Fallacy of Technical Analysis is in its predictiveness. Those that use their crystal balls tend to follow the path to ruin.

Now Technical Analysis does have merit but we need to keep with the market to see how it reacts. When trading - be present, stay with the dance and feel it. That is where we need to be, not in the future or the past and definitely not predicting.

If you are in unison then all will be clear!
  • #6,477
  • Apr 4, 2009 1:19pm Apr 4, 2009 1:19pm
So as we look at sunday to make our plans for battle, what is one considering as he views the terrain for the e/u ?
  • #6,478
  • Apr 4, 2009 1:49pm Apr 4, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting Zoran
I hope it's clear to everyone that the Fallacy of Technical Analysis is in its predictiveness. Those that use their crystal balls tend to follow the path to ruin.

Now Technical Analysis does have merit but we need to keep with the market to see how it reacts. When trading - be present, stay with the dance and feel it. That is where we need to be, not in the future or the past and definitely not predicting.

If you are in unison then all will be clear!
I couldn't agree more!!!
Technical Analysis (and Fundamentals, for that matter) tools should be used to "predict" market movements and outcomes. I believe the majority use indicators all wrongly and have no solid base to trade profitably. An indicator is not to be used as a BUY/SELL signal, if that were the case every indicator would make every trader (noob & experienced alike) consistantly profitable.

Indicators are to be used as Predictive Tools. Tools that may help a trader anticipate the next market move or better yet, anticipate an entry or exit based on what that trader reads into the market. A lot of traders seem afraid to use Candlestick patterns or any pure price action indicators. Instead, a trader's chart is filled to the brim with MACD, Stochatics, RSI, MA's etc. I've always been a fan of KISS when trading. Pick on indicator and get really good at reading and anticipating market moves with it. Whether it be, using MACD or Stochastics ... pick one and become the end-all professional involving that indicator. Do not use indicators as a cruch, instead use them as a "validator" to what you already see and planning for.

Here are two examples of using indicators to "anticipate" the next market move.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,479
  • Apr 4, 2009 2:15pm Apr 4, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Jhig
[font=Tahoma]I couldn't agree more!!!
Technical Analysis (and Fundamentals, for that matter) tools should be used to "predict" market movements and outcomes. I believe the majority use indicators all wrongly and have no solid base to trade profitably. An indicator is not to be used as a BUY/SELL signal, if that were the case every indicator would make every trader (noob & experienced alike) consistantly profitable.

Indicators are to be used as Predictive Tools. Tools that may help a trader anticipate the next market move or better...
Hi Jhig
... this is fun?!?... ... think about this seriously ?!?

You know what is spoken throughout this thread????????

  • #6,480
  • Apr 4, 2009 5:43pm Apr 4, 2009 5:43pm
I hope it's clear to everyone that the Fallacy of Technical Analysis is in its predictiveness.

It doesn't seem like everyone understood.
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