Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Haha me too Pippedoff. I used to like the weekends, now I can't wait till Sunday night.

A creepy session tomorrow again and we are doomed to a boring Monday, as no one is gonna put the first coin in....

bored
bored
bored

pls, can someone expain the gap ..... how it works thx

One of the most frustrating aspects of day trading can be that gap up or down. For one thing, much of the day's move is often spent within the gap itself, leaving little for the remainder of the day. But here is a relatively simple method for determining the day's top or bottom, based on what I call the "50% Phenomenon", which occurs very often in the intraday charts.

The rules are easy to remember.

1. The gap must come after a Reversal
A stock that has been moving up, will peak and turn back down, or maybe consolidate sideways a little first. Then the next morning it gaps down. It is at this high point that we begin our calculations.

2. Measure the white space of the gap, and not necessarily the open and closing points.
Since most day trading charting software has Fibonacci lines built in, use this tool to drag your 50% line exactly halfway between the low of the upper gap and the high of the lower gap. This usually happens in the last half hour of the previous day, and the first half hour of the new day. In the chart below, notice how the last half hour saw the low, and then ticked up a couple bars before the close. The next day saw a high after a few bars. We are not measuring the gap between the open and close; instead we are interested in the white space of the gap itself.

Now note how the bottom of the day was very near our 0% line before it turned back up. The 50% Phenomenon gave us our low of the day target within the first half hour of trading.



http://www.hardrightedge.com/images/nasdaq-021601c.gif

3. The 50% line could be at the beginning of the gap, the center of the gap, or the end of the gap.
If you're thinking that the above chart was a bit too easy, you're right. Here we see a gap with upward momentum. Notice that the 50% line was placed at the beginning of the gap, rather than the middle. Placing the 50% line in the center of the gap would have given us an incorrect target for the day's high.

http://www.hardrightedge.com/images/nasdaq-021501b.gif

The question you are probably asking is this: How do we know exactly where to place the 50% line when we first see the gap? The answer is simple: We don't.

Here we see my first attempt at targeting the high of the day by placing my 50% line in the center of the gap. This looked pretty accurate through the first half of the day, and I expected price to flatline or fall back from this point. But surprise! There was still lots of juice left.



http://www.hardrightedge.com/images/nasdaq-040501a2.gif

Once I saw that price would continue its ascent, I moved my 50% line up to the end of the gap. This time the target for the day's high was accurate. My standard practice is to assume the center method is the correct one, until proven otherwise, simply because that scenario is a little more common. But I am always on the lookout for signs that this is not the correct choice, and I never hesitate to adjust my lines accordingly.

As with any chart pattern, the 50% Phenomenon doesn't work every time, so it's essential to have a stop-loss strategy. But once you begin to look for it, I think you will be amazed at how often it appears, and how reliable it can be.

SOURCE: http://www.hardrightedge.com/wizard/rl1.htm

Nice 1 bravado, anyone want to fire off a few lots @ tomorrows close and shoot for a double play on Sunday?

yes thats correct I took my chance at 16:00 233.75 that was an opening price, I didn't enter the trade right away because i was away from my PC I took it at 233.91, but this few pips don't make any difference for me because on 4H charts moves pretty big ... but consistent most of the time

i don't like this grow on the last 3 bars .... pip by pip .... looks scary for me with a short order ...

Thanks for the clarification on the 4 hr strategy. Much appreciated.

Looks like geppy has a 3-4 hr window of opportunity of lessened resistance on time until 5 00 am GMT make use perhaps

Bravado,, that is an intresting concept on gapping will look into that, It was always my understanding that they just needed to be filled at some point in time, most commonly very quickly. Never thought ti figure a projection such as you were explaining. That gap 50% line on the previous close looks really promising.

As I trade off of Candlestick patterns as part of my trading methodology thought I would share this with y'all.

GAPS FROM A JAPANESE CANDLESTICK VIEWPOINT
"In exploring the perspective of Western technical analysis on gaps. A trader should be able to identify four different types of gaps: area (common), breakaway, continuation (measuring) and exhaustion. An "area" gap occurs within a trading pattern such as a triangle, rectangle or rounding base. Typically, the "area" gap is of little significance. Since area gaps are often filled quickly, they conform to traditional wisdom that gaps are filled. A "breakaway" gap is an entirely different matter. The "breakaway" gap ends a consolidation pattern and happens as prices break out. Often, a "breakaway" gap occurs on very large volume, as the supply available within the consolidation pattern has been consumed and bidders who want to enter must pay up for it. A genuine "breakaway" gap will often not be filled for weeks or months. A "continuation" gap occurs within a rapid straight-up movement. This type of gap is also known as a "measuring" gap because it usually occurs approximately halfway through the move. "Continuation" gaps may eventually be filled, but it should take some time to do so as the price needs to first peak, reverse, and finally trend in the opposite direction. An "exhaustion" gap occurs at the end of a price move. If there have been two or more gaps before it, then this kind of gap should be regarded very skeptically. A genuine "exhaustion" gap is filled within a few days to a week. When a swing trader sees a gap, he or she should immediately ask, "What kind of gap am I witnessing?" Often it will take some time to come to a final conclusion. What seems to be a breakaway gap, for example, may over the next several weeks be filled and that filling may be an important catalyst to take swing-trading action in the opposite direction. Candlestick theory, while less detailed about gaps, provides some important additional insights. Japanese theory does not distinguish between the types of gaps. Nor does it even use this term. Instead a gap is called a "window." Whereas a great deal of emphasis in candlesticks is given to reversal patterns, a window is considered a continuation pattern. In other words, trading is highly probable to continue in the same direction after the window as it did before it. Advice to traders given by some who are well versed in Japanese Candle Theory, advises traders that they should typically trade "in the direction of the window." If a price is declining when the window" occurs, then it is highly probable that the decline will continue. If the price is rising when the window occurs, then it should continue to rally. Once a window has occurred, it becomes an important support and resistance area. If the window occurred in a downtrend, then on any subsequent rally the upper end of the window should turn back prices. If the window was created in an uptrend, then when prices rally the bottom edge of the window should be the lowest point of decline. Further candle theory holds that the test of all open windows is likely. The key thing to examine is what happens on this test. When the alert swing trader spots a window in a rising trend, he or she should expect, for a time, that the price will continue higher. Eventually, however, prices will reverse and will test the open window. On this test, prices should hold at the lower edge of the window, which is now important support. If, however, this support level is violated and selling pressure persists, then it is likely that the trend has reversed. The swing trader could now go short in the same way he or she would if a horizontal support level had been breached. In a downtrend, the opposite is true. After the initial window, the decline should continue. Eventually resistance, which is at the upper edge of the window, should be tested. If buying pressure persists and is able to move prices beyond this upper window, then the swing trader could go long in the same way they would if a resistance level were overcome."

actually its not my idea. got it off a website. pasted the whole thing cause i was bored at the time.

dont forget to post the source next time

thnx a lot no offece , but u now its firiday chill out and have some vodka, charst have no sence now... most likely because of hioly days

hi

Good day i think the next target is 233 ... down

post edited with link to source.

missed my opportunity to sell at 234.30.

however, time is a factor here.
friday+NFP is here and there is really no clear indication of gj turning bearish.

So why try and sell at .40 doesnt make sense....I am still waiting for a retracement today down to 233 ...Time will tell

hi there, where can i post my forum, i'm having difficulty here and where is the forum posting option ? thanks in advance