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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,681
  • Apr 5, 2007 12:04pm Apr 5, 2007 12:04pm
I am out. i closed my short with just 10 pip profit. This thing seems to have bottomed and looking to crawl a little. I am going to stay on the sidelines until we see some more of a direction.
  • #2,682
  • Edited 12:40pm Apr 5, 2007 12:09pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting bmwboyee
I am out. i closed my short with just 10 pip profit. This thing seems to have bottomed and looking to crawl a little. I am going to stay on the sidelines until we see some more of a direction.
I'm looking for a confirmation close on the 4hr chart to be convinced of a downtrend reversal. The up movement doesn't seem to have much juice to it.

Has to close above 234.28 at 2:00pm EST before I consider closing my shorts.
  • #2,683
  • Apr 5, 2007 12:16pm Apr 5, 2007 12:16pm
Heres what i got, this move from the top bery very timely, perfect balance, price and time.
Attached Image
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #2,684
  • Apr 5, 2007 2:24pm Apr 5, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
For those that don't know what Karma pips are please review the discussion between Karma and myself yesterday.
i rather not.
i couldn't care less.

"review the discussion between Karma and myself".. this isn't a soap opera.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,685
  • Apr 5, 2007 3:03pm Apr 5, 2007 3:03pm
The GJ has been in a tight range for 3 days now. After looking at some of the other pairs it looks like the GBPCHF moved like we were hoping the GJ would have done today.

With the GJ being held at a standstill, could it be waiting for the Non-Farm-Payroll coming out tomorrow? I watched it last month and the NFP did affect the GBPJPY forcing it to move 100 plus pips last month.

It is my understanding that if the NFP news is greater than expected the GBPJPY will go up and if it is less than expected the GBPJPY will go down. Is this correct?

The news I have read so far states that there is a high likely hood that the NFP will be lower than expected tomorrow. Would be nice if it could help jump start the GBPJPY as it seems to have stalled on price movement.

thanks for your input and assistance.

yezbick
  • #2,686
  • Apr 5, 2007 3:18pm Apr 5, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting yezbick
The GJ has been in a tight range for 3 days now. After looking at some of the other pairs it looks like the GBPCHF moved like we were hoping the GJ would have done today.

With the GJ being held at a standstill, could it be waiting for the Non-Farm-Payroll coming out tomorrow? I watched it last month and the NFP did affect the GBPJPY forcing it to move 100 plus pips last month.

It is my understanding that if the NFP news is greater than expected the GBPJPY will go up and if it is less than expected the GBPJPY will go down. Is this correct?

The news I have read so far states that there is a high likely hood that the NFP will be lower than expected tomorrow. Would be nice if it could help jump start the GBPJPY as it seems to have stalled on price movement.

thanks for your input and assistance.

yezbick
I've seen dollar-positive news do nothing to dollar and trigger carry trades up.... Announcements like NFP affect the whole market and with this dollar short bias - see today's selloff - we could see carry trades getting back to flow the cash to the stock market that is making highs after highs...

Dow closed at 12,560 after hitting 12,572 with virtually no retracement during this week - just like the carry trades

The impact could come on Monday, though...
  • #2,687
  • Apr 5, 2007 3:39pm Apr 5, 2007 3:39pm
Interesting reading:

US Non-Farm Payrolls is perhaps one of the most watched economic data release in the global financial market. It comes out on the first Friday of every month. Interestingly, this time the release (on 06-Apr-2007, at 1230 GMT or 0830 EST) falls on “Good Friday”, when most parts of the world are closed. This is likely to result in thin liquidity. Hence, due to lack of liquidity, the chances of a large move are extremely high.

The last time the US NFP was declared on a Good Friday was on Apr 02, 1999. On that day, payrolls were reported up 46,000 compared with forecasts for a gain of 150,000.

This time around, the US NFP are expected to come in at 125K. This is more or less inline with the US ADP Nonfarm Employment change, which has come in at 106K on 03-Apr. The CME Derivative auction figures also point out to the US NFP figure of around 120K – 130K, with the latest auction figures being 121.6K (as of 1315 GMT 05-Apr).

There could be a big move if there is a large deviation from the expected figures. A number of above 150-155K could result in a EUR-USD move below 1.3320, while a NFP Figure below 100K could result in a EUR-USD move above 1.3450, with moves on both sides exaggerated by low liquidity. OR, it could also be that there won’t be any movement at all!

For a historical chart on NFP, please click on
http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/usnfp.shtml
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,688
  • Apr 5, 2007 3:53pm Apr 5, 2007 3:53pm
Did anyone just notice that spike up? Not on large side, however, I'll take any movement at all
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,689
  • Apr 5, 2007 4:29pm Apr 5, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting Sami7
Interesting reading:
There could be a big move if there is a large deviation from the expected figures. A number of above 150-155K could result in a EUR-USD move below 1.3320, while a NFP Figure below 100K could result in a EUR-USD move above 1.3450, with moves on both sides exaggerated by low liquidity. OR, it could also be that there won’t be any movement at all!
simply amazing.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,690
  • Apr 5, 2007 4:34pm Apr 5, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting bravado
simply amazing.
Seems like we could have figured that out ourselves.....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,691
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:00pm Apr 5, 2007 5:00pm
Quoting bravado
simply amazing.
  • #2,692
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:03pm Apr 5, 2007 5:03pm
what is everyone up to with this pair? i'm thinking about shorting above 234.00.

234.10~30
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,693
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:06pm Apr 5, 2007 5:06pm
i'm thinking that it had clear short signal 2 bars ago, and now its in neutral ... and i have a short from 234.11 ...
  • #2,694
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:15pm Apr 5, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting Vitaliy
i'm thinking that it had clear short signal 2 bars ago, and now its in neutral ... and i have a short from 234.11 ...
234.11 was a good place to short.

agreed. if i take the short at around 234.10-234.30 it would be a very early entry.

a bounce down from that area might be a better strategy.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,695
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:25pm Apr 5, 2007 5:25pm
my indicators showed clear down trend 04.05 at 12:00 on 4H but i always enter on the second bar, usually this works well i see only 2-3 times in the history when the indicators were wrond ... but all of them were either on friday or sunday, and trend did go much in the opposite direction, so lets see if i was right at the point of entry but currently its in the neutral area ...
  • #2,696
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:35pm Apr 5, 2007 5:35pm
I keep my fingres off till tomorrow. dont really see what will happen now. was thinking befour sinking but atm theres really nothing to grap on. wait and see.

Night! and take it easy ppl!
  • #2,697
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:42pm Apr 5, 2007 5:42pm
Hi everyone>

New to forum and to trading overall. Great points!

Just confused about the 4 hr chart guidance above. The 12:00 bar on 4/5 was down, but you entered on second bar? Do you mean the 4:00 bar after the 12:00? So, you went short at 233.75? Thanks!
  • #2,698
  • Apr 5, 2007 6:07pm Apr 5, 2007 6:07pm
All positions taken at the moment, it's retracing back and looking neutral. I agree with the general frustration feeling, it's taken forever to come down. Can't comment on US news tho because I have no idea how this pair correlates with the others (recent article was very helpful however, wish they could put some GJ figures in there). *sigh*

Shorting again will trigger at 233.40, 40-50 pips target.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,699
  • Apr 5, 2007 6:20pm Apr 5, 2007 6:20pm
Well, it is forming a very nice bullish flag pattern. Will it continue north...?
  • #2,700
  • Apr 5, 2007 6:24pm Apr 5, 2007 6:24pm
It's only Thursday in the U.S. and i'm already thinking about a gap on sunday/monday... true signs of boredom.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
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