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Silent Service Method

  • #841
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:30am Mar 31, 2009 11:30am
Quoting volatilemonk
Just an update. This was one that didn't fail.

VM

Nice catch VM . The daily USD/CHF one that Ghous (J16 thread contributer who has also written on here a bit) took worked out pretty well too. Josh
  • #842
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:21pm Mar 31, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
Mainly because it's essentially based on James16 material. (I am a Senior Member there.)

I wrote about buying Martin Pring on Price Patterns (a book) it has a lot of the set ups I like. Jim uses his stuff quite a bit as well.

Let me think about it, and find some time....I might throw something together.
Would be a great idea Chris,

Looking forward to it

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #843
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:54pm Mar 31, 2009 3:54pm
Anybody watching this pair its forming ?its forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr,am waiting for it to break the shoulders.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #844
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:02pm Mar 31, 2009 4:02pm
CW - any thoughts on the USD/JPY? It's reaching big resistance area of 100. Today we have had prices run up to 99.35 and form a 4H pin bar.
We also have 3 things supporting a short:

1. Hitting big resistance arounerall trend d 100
2. Ovis bearish
3. 50% fib retracement - from 110 to 86
  • #845
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:05pm Mar 31, 2009 4:05pm
CW - any thoughts on the USD/JPY? It's reaching big resistance area of 100. Today we have had prices run up to 99.35 and form a 4H pin bar.
We also have 3 things supporting a short:

1. Hitting big resistance around 100
2. Overall trend is bearish
3. 50% fib retracement - from 110 to 86
  • #846
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:15pm Mar 31, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
CW - any thoughts on the USD/JPY? It's reaching big resistance area of 100. Today we have had prices run up to 99.35 and form a 4H pin bar.
We also have 3 things supporting a short:

1. Hitting big resistance around 100
2. Overall trend is bearish
3. 50% fib retracement - from 110 to 86
Good analysis but have you factored in the G20 meeting this week and NFP.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #847
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:37pm Mar 31, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting lordgbengs
Good analysis but have you factored in the G20 meeting this week and NFP.

Thanks for response. Had not taked NFP into account, but from a technical standpoint the chart looks good and Friday's NFP announcement is a still 3 days away (by which time this trade will be either over (profit taken), stopped or have stops lowered to lock in profit). It's important to blend the news/fundamentals with tech analysis, but I would not take this trade if this set up occured on Thurs before NFP for instance.

With respect to the NZD/USD, there was a pin bar at a strong resistnance area on the daily 3/26 chart and good shorting opportunities below the low of that bar @ 0.5725. Firday 3/27, the pair turned around in the direction of the main trend. Since then has fallen another 150 pips to the downside with further bearish potential...
  • #848
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:58pm Mar 31, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
CW - any thoughts on the USD/JPY? It's reaching big resistance area of 100. Today we have had prices run up to 99.35 and form a 4H pin bar.
We also have 3 things supporting a short:

1. Hitting big resistance around 100
2. Overall trend is bearish
3. 50% fib retracement - from 110 to 86
The 4 hr. pin to me isn't a good pin to be honest. On my feed, it looks more like a neutral bar.
  • #849
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:00pm Mar 31, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting lordgbengs
Good analysis but have you factored in the G20 meeting this week and NFP.

To be honest, I rarely pay attention to these things. I am trading the psychology of the market, not what "might" happen. However, I wouldn't place a trade ON n.f.p. Friday.

But I agree with the other guy.....3 days away.
  • #850
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:14pm Mar 31, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting Jduester
Nice catch VM . The daily USD/CHF one that Ghous (J16 thread contributer who has also written on here a bit) took worked out pretty well too. Josh
Thanks Josh. Maybe this fits into what J16 describes as a good momentum trade, put in a buy stop above the top of that pin, with a stop loss point 20-30 pips below the entry. Once the top of the pin got taken out, the momentum was enough to keep the stop loss from being triggered, and then when a profit of 20-30 pips is secured, move the stop loss to break-even.
If however, this one had failed, then the most that would have been lost is the 20-30 pips. That way you wouldn't have to wait for the other end of the pin to be taken out to find out if you are wrong. I don't know if this is workable in the long run but the only way to find out is to demo it over a period of time.

Silent Service, J16 and No Brainers Rock!

VM
"Stay Sharp and Keep Learning!" - VM
  • #851
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:36pm Mar 31, 2009 6:36pm
CW,

When you enter a new Forex trade, in addition to placing your SL do you also place your TP right away or do you manage this aspect as the trade progresses?

I ask because you mentioned that you generally place your trades and walk away letting the market do what it will. But assume you are trading with the trend and you want to let your trade run. Placing a TP with your initial trade entry at the first area of resistance might cut the trade short.

Do you just check back every few hours and manage your SL and TP accordingly or do you put in everything up front and leave?

PS
What time is your trading platform set to? NY time, your local time, London time?
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #852
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:00pm Mar 31, 2009 7:00pm
Quoting clockwork71
The 4 hr. pin to me isn't a good pin to be honest. On my feed, it looks more like a neutral bar.
Agree on that. There was a pin bar from 2 daily bars, 3/26 and 3/27, but my weekly chart starting from 1991 shows strong resistance between 0.5950-0.6050. Since recent up move didn't reach those levels, I am still waiting price to hit those levels and then watch PA.
  • #853
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:02pm Mar 31, 2009 7:02pm
A chart of the Dow Jones....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #854
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:03pm Mar 31, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting Santana55
CW,

When you enter a new Forex trade, in addition to placing your SL do you also place your TP right away or do you manage this aspect as the trade progresses?

I ask because you mentioned that you generally place your trades and walk away letting the market do what it will. But assume you are trading with the trend and you want to let your trade run. Placing a TP with your initial trade entry at the first area of resistance might cut the trade short.

Do you just check back every few hours and manage your SL and TP accordingly or do you put...

I only place a TP if I am going counter-trend. If going with the trend, I just check it every once in a while.

My platform is set to GMT, which as far as I know is my only option.
  • #855
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:07pm Mar 31, 2009 7:07pm
Another chart, SP500 (SPX)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #856
  • Edited 8:50pm Mar 31, 2009 8:45pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
CW - any thoughts on the USD/JPY? It's reaching big resistance area of 100. Today we have had prices run up to 99.35 and form a 4H pin bar.
We also have 3 things supporting a short:

1. Hitting big resistance around 100
2. Overall trend is bearish
3. 50% fib retracement - from 110 to 86
Personally, I have the complete opposite opinion on this trade however your time frame could be completely different than mine. Like you said, we're reaching major resistance at 100, but I think that could be the catalyst for this thing going much higher. I often trade 6hr bars instead of 4hr, and the other day gave a great 12hr/1day pin-bar that set up a nice 150pip trade: long @ 97.50, up to 99 and beyond.

To me, it looks like they tried to push this thing lower over the past few weeks, but just couldn't do it and more importantly it looks like 3 time frames are converging to push this thing higher. I'll attach the 3 charts I'm looking at. Monthly (yes, monthly), Daily, and my 6hr bars are all giving clues that you just can't keep this thing down.

I would not enter the trade prior to the NFP & G20 meeting, but i certainly wouldn't be short this thing. Depending on if NFP suprises one way or the other I might miss the entry b/c it'll blow past my level, but hey, that's life.

BTW - first post on this thread - well done clockwork -- Lots of good stuff here.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: $USDJPY 4_1_2009 (360 Min).jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #857
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:28pm Mar 31, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting slyng1
Personally, I have the complete opposite opinion on this trade however your time frame could be completely different than mine....
These charts are similar to the Dow and SPX charts I posted. To be honest, I think we are going to have some kind of resolution soon. Will it be up or down? I have a bias, but luckily I don't try to trade those....I trade charts.

I think the next few days are going to be huge for markets. Only time will tell though. None the less, when we decide what we are going to do, it will be obvious.

CW
  • #858
  • Edited 1:36am Apr 1, 2009 1:24am | Edited 1:36am
that was a really nice setup except that happened little late last night when i was out..
1.clear and obvious divergence
2.found resistance at 0.5800 level
3.two 4 hr bar formed fair enough pin bar
4.pin bar was right on 61.8 fib retracement of last swing down.(i love this level)
5.forgot to mention that also great shape-head and shoulder
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.JPG Size: 139 KB
  • #859
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:38am Apr 1, 2009 6:38am
Quoting lordgbengs
Good analysis but have you factored in the G20 meeting this week and NFP.
Hi there,

I'm still a newbie, but IMHO I think we should not pay much or any attention to the news bits out there, I can see for a fact of the USDCAD Weekly BEOB, it's just like someone out there are already preparing for the move they know will happen, would you still believe on insider information?

And we as J16ers are already positioned for the break of that Weekly USDCAD BEOB too, and scores a fortune out of it.

I sincerely believe that technical analysis of the charts and understanding market microstructures pretty much speaks for everything the market is, was, and going to be.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Then again, I'm just a newbie.

Hope that helps (if any).

Marcel
  • #860
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:09am Apr 1, 2009 7:09am
Hi,
Thank you for this amazing thread.
I have read the most in this thread and I have not really understood the Pin logic since I am used to candles.
Is a pin the same as a Doji ?

If it has been discussed before my apologiez but plz point me to it.

Cheers.
There are no certainties only oppurtunities.
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