As I write this; what we have now is a promising looking long trend forming...or do we?
Look at it more closely. The 15M is up, the 30M is just over 20 and the 1H is still below 20 whipsawing. The 4H is till downward trending towards 20.
Right now our little voice is saying "jump in the long trade and grab those pips before it is too late".
Spud's voice is saying to you "Wait".
Look at the 15M chart below. Notice something about the price move and the stochastic move? The stochastic hardly moved up while, the price is still moving down in a small trend like fashion. That's a weak 15M up stochastic forming. as the 15M stoch moves up price is not reacting well upwards.
Look deeper at the effect the 15M upward move has on the 30M and 1H over the next 15-30 minutes and you'll have an answer to why this is a horrible chance to make a long trade.
If the 30/1H do respond...then we waited for the stochastics to show us the way. If we jump in now, we are reacting to what we think the stochastics will do.
There is a small wait for the 1H to get above 20 and the 15/30 to be in agreement above 20 to react to making a long trade. You won't lose anything if you wait. I'd wager a guess if you went long now before the stochs react that you have about an 80% chance of taking a loss.
During the time I typed this the 30M and 1H gained support for more down movement in price....it is very small but you can see it.
Look at it more closely. The 15M is up, the 30M is just over 20 and the 1H is still below 20 whipsawing. The 4H is till downward trending towards 20.
Right now our little voice is saying "jump in the long trade and grab those pips before it is too late".
Spud's voice is saying to you "Wait".
Look at the 15M chart below. Notice something about the price move and the stochastic move? The stochastic hardly moved up while, the price is still moving down in a small trend like fashion. That's a weak 15M up stochastic forming. as the 15M stoch moves up price is not reacting well upwards.
Look deeper at the effect the 15M upward move has on the 30M and 1H over the next 15-30 minutes and you'll have an answer to why this is a horrible chance to make a long trade.
If the 30/1H do respond...then we waited for the stochastics to show us the way. If we jump in now, we are reacting to what we think the stochastics will do.
There is a small wait for the 1H to get above 20 and the 15/30 to be in agreement above 20 to react to making a long trade. You won't lose anything if you wait. I'd wager a guess if you went long now before the stochs react that you have about an 80% chance of taking a loss.
During the time I typed this the 30M and 1H gained support for more down movement in price....it is very small but you can see it.
Attached Image
