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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,661
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:26am Apr 5, 2007 8:26am
Quoting Traex
Yeah, plus 61.8% fib of wave A down (241.XX - 221.XX), that's quite a big one. Bouncing here might take it to 78.6% at 237.
Tra-x - why aren't you trading this pair?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,662
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:30am Apr 5, 2007 8:30am
Quoting Plutonite
That's ok, very funny moment, I trade H1 too on this pair (see above post).

So how is everyone doing today? Thoughts on current movements?
Yeah, crappy day. Now pound is up again, U/Y is down, and G/Y (as always in d middle) stands and asks itself..now where tf should I go?
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #2,663
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:30am Apr 5, 2007 8:30am
Tlatomi grand mother gave (Read: H4) exit signal on short :-)
  • #2,664
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:20am Apr 5, 2007 9:20am
Quoting Sami7
Tra-x - why aren't you trading this pair?
I don't dare to trade too many pairs at once lol, trying to keep 2 max.
Tra-X
  • #2,665
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:34am Apr 5, 2007 9:34am
Currently short geppy 234.33 looking to add to short around 233.97 area
also short euro now 3422 mental stop the high+2
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #2,666
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:35am Apr 5, 2007 9:35am
Quoting Traex
I don't dare to trade too many pairs at once lol, trying to keep 2 max.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,667
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:36am Apr 5, 2007 9:36am
I wonder what is cesarnc doing, with his minefields of buy orders..probably thats why gy is going down so slow...it hits a mine, jumps up...down again and so on...i wonder how many mines we still have to hit until we reach 233
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #2,668
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:43am Apr 5, 2007 9:43am
Quoting gagiul
I wonder what is cesarnc doing, with his minefields of buy orders..probably thats why gy is going down so slow...it hits a mine, jumps up...down again and so on...i wonder how many mines we still have to hit until we reach 233

I think you want a slow grind lower, if you are looking for lower prices= initiation with market net offer, sharp little corrections of that grind= testing for more sellers. ultra hi volume down bars now per time frame= last liquadation and initiation for a rotation of price per time frame me thinks.

Open Intrest is climbing on the down moves for what its worth.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #2,669
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:56am Apr 5, 2007 9:56am
Quoting Why Oh Why
233.12 & 232.45 as targets. We'll see.
10 short exited on the way down on 7. 192 pips banked over last 24 hours. 3 short outstanding held for the last 18 hours. Two others were with me at that time - BMWBoyee and Cesarnac - everyone else was long.

Last 3 now exited at 233.83 - opened at 234.93. 330 pips (110 Karma Pips)there plus 192 on the other 7 gives 522 pips on 10 lots. Or 52.2 Karma pips. For those that don't know what Karma pips are please review the discussion between Karma and myself yesterday.

Ladies and Gentlemen, have a great weekend. The weekend starts for me now.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #2,670
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:15am Apr 5, 2007 10:15am
Why Oh Why: that is great to hear. I closed my short way too early. but i collected pips none the less. I went long at 234.30 and cashed in at 234.65 this morning. I am now short from 234. and looking to add more if we slide. I think this train is exhausted right now. if we slide more, not sure, but i don't think we will see much north movement till maybe the end of NYC close if it does try to rebound. JMO.
  • #2,671
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:16am Apr 5, 2007 10:16am
Quoting gagiul
I wonder what is cesarnc doing, with his minefields of buy orders..probably thats why gy is going down so slow...it hits a mine, jumps up...down again and so on...i wonder how many mines we still have to hit until we reach 233


Not trading carries today... only dollar
  • #2,672
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:23am Apr 5, 2007 10:23am
BTW, I went clueless about that would be out of the carry trades today. Came out that the big day for GBP turned out to be EUR big day followed by a huge USD selloff across the board. EJ soared and GJ fell... That was creepy.

I'd buy GJ at deeper dips, in case GBP fell the way I was expecting...

Now we are ahead of a possible USD down retracement that is likely to leave GJ without clear direction, at least until Monday, as tomorrow NFP will take over for more USD tradings.
  • #2,673
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:28am Apr 5, 2007 10:28am
Quoting bmwboyee
Why Oh Why: that is great to hear. I closed my short way too early. but i collected pips none the less. I went long at 234.30 and cashed in at 234.65 this morning. I am now short from 234. and looking to add more if we slide. I think this train is exhausted right now. if we slide more, not sure, but i don't think we will see much north movement till maybe the end of NYC close if it does try to rebound. JMO.
I would go long now if it wasn't for Easter. Have a great time mate. And you cesarnc.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0405164925.GIF

Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #2,674
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:28am Apr 5, 2007 10:28am
Quoting cesarnc
BTW, I went clueless about that would be out of the carry trades today. Came out that the big day for GBP turned out to be EUR big day followed by a huge USD selloff across the board. EJ soared and GJ fell... That was creepy.

I'd buy GJ at deeper dips, in case GBP fell the way I was expecting...

Now we are ahead of a possible USD down retracement that is likely to leave GJ without clear direction, at least until Monday, as tomorrow NFP will take over for more USD tradings.
I think cable isn't supporting GJ anymore now, UJ is the one doing it. UJ might be going up/resuming uptrend again later, what do you see?
Tra-X
  • #2,675
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:42am Apr 5, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Traex
I think cable isn't supporting GJ anymore now, UJ is the one doing it. UJ might be going up/resuming uptrend again later, what do you see?
Dollar was smashed hard today and tomorrow we will have another full-USD trading day...

I want to make my mind about the carry trades on next week only. I still don't know if it is the time for another move down to resume the way up. Note that good part of the Euro move today was carry trades, while GJ stalled, proportionally.

GU's upside is injuried, but not dead. The expectation for a hike in May will get back in.

But in the short term I agree that UJ will have to push GJ up, although Uj is failing at 119 for quite sometime. .... Maybe tomorrow dragged by a USD-positive NFP.

Just don't stick to carry trades heavily while USD is the main headline. Go where the money is flowing to and from.

We may have seen the start of a nasty s/t or m/t USD downtrend going on.
  • #2,676
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:43am Apr 5, 2007 10:43am
Quoting cesarnc
We may have seen the start of a nasty s/t or m/t USD downtrend going on.
This is where I got my view from:

The Usd appears to be breaking lower. We suggest keeping a keen eye on the [USD INDEX] and in particular the 82.64/65 levels. This area proved such key support in March and a clear break (82.61 the low so far) could open the way for a pick up in momentum in the index's downside and a wave of broad Usd sales. Below here, next bear targets come in at 82.38/40 and 82.20/25. Whilst pre Easter stop tripping is a theme, US data has been less than encouraging and Fed officials" warning comments on inflation have been shrugged aside by FX players. Meanwhile, the Dow is in negative territory in early trade, with the Micron news proving a weight. The Usd is largely unwanted.
  • #2,677
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:01am Apr 5, 2007 11:01am
News and thoughts keep on coming...

11:46Decent probability that we have seen the extreme moves for the day. What is interesting to consider is what is the danger side for the euro for the next 2-3 days? The market has taken the euro up to an extreme level. The yen crosses are retaining the bid bias, and we are hearing that medium term traders are "panic" buyers of the cross at these levels still.
  • #2,678
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:36am Apr 5, 2007 11:36am
todays close will give insight to daily reversal. if daily revesed first sp is at 228.07 and even possibly can go lower till 221.--. Lets see how it unfolds
  • #2,679
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:57am Apr 5, 2007 11:57am
The real question i think is, what does the heard think is about to happen, for this they will do the opposite. This is how they make their money, masters of the psychology of man and exploit their fears and greed. But thats just me, everything is a conspiracy in my mind. Maybe a little paranoid LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #2,680
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:59am Apr 5, 2007 11:59am
For those still not believing this was a crazy day

12:51 Oddly enough with EUR/JPY only about 30 points from the multi year highs, GBP/JPY is still more than 700 points from the highs the pair would have to move above 241.50 plus to make new highs - last 233.87-96
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