Trader Girl Forex Trades

Here's a prediction I was wrong about. I thought it was going to go up but had pretty strong weakness so stopped watching this pair.

This is an excellent example of using real time trend strength to either confirm or deny overnight predictions. I thought it was likely to reverse today and go up. Price action on Friday gave me this belief but I was TOTALLY wrong. I think what separates a professional trader from a losing retail trader is knowing when NOT to trade their predictions. I think its pretty easy to tell from this chart its weak and not likely to go up.

LOL Amy - dont write cable off just yet - its been stronger than € since its spike low not long after the London Open and the last fall into the European close was negated by a higher volume equal candle making a nice tweezers move.

I'll be watching the 1.4125 area around the LO tomorrow......

I agree. It certainly didn't exhibit a lot of weakness today which I almost always look at as a sign its MORE likely to go up the next day.

Hi Amy,

So just to be clear, TopGun did not teach you the daily forecast method. That is your own creation, right? I'm just trying to figure out what exactly they are teaching in their "training".

I learned a lot in their trainings and actually their tools and how they work gave me the idea for my own analysis. That being said no they won't teach you how I do this analysis.

They focus on a few systems in their classes.

1) 180 bpl system where price goes from below to above balance point line and then on pullback they'll buy if balance point acts as support, short term fx power index trend is strong (you see this as green bars on chart) and ideally the 15 min fx power index is green too or very slightly red. Even better if spearman 14 is green. If all are green this trade works nearly 100%.

I do take these whenever I'm scalping waiting for my other levels to get hit.
These kinds of trades happen a lot and have high win %. Many of their traders consider this type of trade their 'bread and butter' trades and you can make a solid living taking just these trades. Avg of 2-3 per day per currency and most are good for 20 to 50 pips. I can highlight and teach this method in here if anybody's interested when I return.

2) Pullback trades. They teach basically how I've always traded. Find a trend and buy uptrend on short term down move pullback. Reverse for shorts. Now I will say they've added to my knowledge on this as they have many statistical tools that I didn't have before I bought software. Now when moves have gone too far statistically I'll wait for a deeper pullback. I learned that from them and this has AVOIDED me taking so many losses that my original concept of the market had me taking.

3) Their best system and its so easy you don't need their classes for is their currency meter.aws. It statistically analyzes every currency against ALL of the other pairs. I've posted a chart below. All you need to do is find the strongest pair and buy vs weakest on next pullback or short weakest vs strongest. This was a CONFIRMING factor to my AUDJPY short today. I find when my systems align with their tools and some of the methods they teach greatly improves my win %.

They also teach multi day analysis which I've always done myself even before using their tools but for new traders I'd suspect it would be very useful. It's this analysis that I'm doing to create my levels however what's different about my way and what they teach is that IF I feel a pair will be strong I'll use a TIGHTER support level. IE if avg daily range is 150 pips but I suspect a pair will go up I may have my buy level only 100 pips down. This would be slightly more risky to do without my overnight bias that I do.

4) They teach what I'd consider amazing counter trend methods. I rarely take these trades but they are one of the reasons I tend to catch most pips in strong trends as they alert me (I use their stat tools script) when trends likely to reverse and I tighten stop. I do use these methods IF I think markets going to go up and the currency hits my buy level and I see a stat tools reversal signal. When this happens and the trendline entry method I use gives me a buy the trade works over 80% of the time.

I also would have to admit I learned divergence trading from them and they use the FX Multimap which shows intensity of the trend set to 60. If you have a double top/bottom and there is divergence by more than 50% you can sell/buy when trendline is broken.

That's about it. I didn't pay for their training. I don't think I would have because of my ego but it came with the purchase so decided to check out their Forex tools and it made me decide to focus on Forex instead of stocks/futures so glad I did. For new traders I think its worth it. If you're making over $1k a day now trading Forex then you wouldn't need it, you can figure out TopGun's best tools on your own to improve the systems you're now trading.

I suspect most profitable traders would simply buy it though because you probably don't want to trade with the brokers they have for free TopGun. The training is included with this. I have never traded with them (FXDD, FXCM or FX Solutions) and I suppose its ok if you have a small account under $10k but once you learn to trade you will want institutional level spreads for pairs such as GBPJPY AUDJPY, etc.

I'll be away for awhile and post again April 19th for the 20th's trading.

Since I'm not trading tomorrow, leave early on vacation I can't do full analysis but from looking at the charts I feel JPY will be strongest followed by GBP next.

Weakest currency should be CAD followed by USD

So this means look for buys in GBPUSD, GBPCAD, EURCAD and sells in USDJPY and CADJPY.

Thank you for the in depth analysis of their training. This definitely gives me a better idea of what is offered. Frankly, $2K is pretty expensive when you look at it because it looks like another trading platform with promise of "training". But I'm thinking more about it because of some of the points you have made. I'm definitely not at the $1K per day kind of return, I'll be happy with $1K every week with my relatively small account size. So it would cost me 2 weeks of profit to get this.

I would definitely be interested in hearing you teach some of their methods, and learning to adapt it to my trading method.

I second that about Elite Trader, I am new here and I've read the rules so I to want to stick to them. I have found myself in the forum to learn as I am just starting out and need to actually start my journey in learning. I just dont know where to start. Thanks for the thread though, I am guessing that once i've done some reading I'll know what this is all about.... lol...

Hey Amy I was following your thread at ET with interest. I am planning on taking the trial from top gun. Are you planning on posting any more trades here?

I lightly traded last week, enjoyed my vacation and got taxes done and feel ready to trade aggressively again. Here's my analysis for tomorrow.

USD/CHF Lightly buy 1.1583 to 1.1540 and heavily 1.1509 to 1.1500
AUD/USD Buy breakout of .7230 and sell breakdown of .7180
AUD/JPY Buy breakout of 71.75 and sell breakdown of 71.00
USD/CAD Buy breakout of 1.2175 possibly resistance at 1.2200 and buy 1.2050
GBP/USD Sell breakdown of 1.4778 and sell 1.4900
GBP/JPY Lightly sell 148.00 and 148.50
USD/JPY Sell breakdown of 98.75 and sell 99.77
NZD/USD Sell .5793 to .5800
EUR/USD Sell 1.3138 to 1.3150 and aggressively 1.3200
NZD/JPY Sell breakdown of 56.00 and sell 57.38 to 57.50
EUR/JPY Sell 131.00 to 131.60

Here are some of my trades today, shorted NZDJPY at 4am and rode it down about 80 pips and shorted again at 9:40 and caught 131 pips.

The USDJPY did what I thought and shorted pennant breakdown under my sell level of 98.75. Only made 25 pips on this one. Didn't re enter later so missed future down move.

Shorted AUDUSD at the breakdown level of .7180 and rode it down to the previous month's high and got out WAY too early but made 82 pips.

I'm working on automating some of my systems so I can sleep more. My vacation was soo relaxing I've decided to make this a priority. My minimum goal is 50 pips a week and got myself into a nice position so not going to be trading tomorrow thus I'm not going to do my levels tonight. I may post them tomorrow night if my work proves fruitful!

Hey nice trading Amy. Sleep is good.

Yes it is. One thing they don't tell you when they try to convince you to trade the Forex is how much EASIER trading is at 3am EST time. When I first started trading the Forex I'd start around 7:30 to 8am EST and by then the trends were often over. But doing counter trend is risky because as happened yesterday even when currencies are up or down TOO much statistically it doesn't mean they wil REVERSE ! So when I first started trading Forex after many years doing stocks and futures I would attempt to trade the trends and they were exhausted and reverse on me. If I tried to do counter trend then the damn trends would continue. I got BEAT UP big time in the beginning until I attempted waking up at 3am and giving it a shot. NIGHT and DAY difference! Trends began, I jumped on board and made money. Then my trading evolved into doing analysis each night to get better feel for which direction and IF trends went that way I'd jump on board. It reduced my stress, increased my winning % and also I found my win/loss ratio went up dramatically. It went up even more WHEN I bet bigger on trades I predicted the night before and when the statistical trend tools I use confirmed it. I'd bet 30 to 100% bigger and this had a profound impact on my profitability.

I discovered on my vacation I like to sleep in till 8am! I've trained myself to go back to sleep after entering a position, setting my stops and targets but in doing this I often miss out on additional profit. For example yesterday I set my exit level near major support, the market shot right through that and went down I believe 100 pips more. If I was awake and watching or a computer trailed a stop I'd have made more.

So that's why I plan to really dig in and learn more Visual Basic coding. My systems make money now but are often just 40% winning, they take too many stupid trades I'd never take plus they often get right back in after a stop out which I rarely do until I see some SIGNS of that trade being more likely to work than not.

In working on developing my automated system I'm considering doing it by category OR situation.

For instance here are the categories I can think of, please let me know if you feel I missed any category.

Main Categories
1) Long Only
2) Short Only
3) Long and Short
4) Long Above Y Price
5) Short Below Y Price
6) Mostly Long above X price, short under it
7) Mostly Short below x price, long above it


For situations each currency is in I came up with these, please let me know if you feel I missed any situation.

Situation
1) Down too much, LIKELY to reverse up
2) Up too much, LIKELY to reverse down
3) Trend STRONG up, likely to continue
4) Trend STRONG down, likely to continue
5) No trend, only wait for super strong trend for intraday
6) No Trend but tight range, wait for breakout/breakdown


By doing this each day for each currency I can decide which of the dozen or so strategies I look for BEST applies. For instance with the EURUSD I feel #1 applies. It tripple bottomed and I suspect it's more likely to go up now than down so I'd be looking to buy it unless 1.2900 breaks. I'm only going to go long up to a place I think its going to stall and then I'd trade it counter trend short.

Here's my overnight analysis.

AUD/JPY Buy 69.00 and 68.50
AUD/USD Buy .7000 and breakout of .7139
NZD/USD Buy 0.5537 and breakout of .5650
NZD/JPY Buy 54.78 to 54.50
GBP/JPY Buy 143.50 to 143.35 and short if under 143.00
GBP/USD Buy 1.4575 to 1.4550 and breakout of 1.4700
CAD/JPY Buy breakout of 80.00 and sell 80.50 to 80.73, sell breakdown of 79.00
USD/JPY Sell 99.21 to 99.35
EUR/JPY Buy breakout of 128.00 and Sell under 127.27 and buy 126.50 to 126.34
USD/CAD Buy breakout of 128.00 and Sell under 127.27 and buy 126.50 to 126.34
EUR/USD Look for buys unless 1.2900 breaks and then short, lightly sell 1.3032
USD/CHF Sell breakdown of 1.1650 and sell 1.1780 to 1.1800
EUR/GBP Sell breakdown of .8800 and sell .8950 to .8959

amytrade could you post charts as to these calls, hoping to see what you see using the platform

Amy I appreciate your little pointers like starting at London open. I know this because I have loosely followed this market while trying to grind it out in eminis, but like you I realized I like trading a directional market. 2nd day of trial, liking it. Missing a few small things I am used to, but their proprietary tools more than make up for it.

Let me first say I haven't automated before. That said I aware that you have to been as specific as possible. Some of your statements lack that. It's ok if you don't want to give specifics, but I don't see how you can make a decision based on "mostly long or mostly short"? For example in situation, down to much, I would think you would quantify % of range from BPL or something of that nature.

I'm speaking of TGs tools regarding Range such as Range Projection. I am also looking at last week or two of trading. In EUR/USD it fell 500 pips and I saw 'signs' of buying yesterday and day before with tripple bottom. That is why I was looking for buys today in it up to 1.3032 which so far was almost to the exact pip high today so far.

Reading last 3 day to 2 week of charts is very subjective, I spend maybe 10 seconds on each one and get a gut feel. I've traded for so long you get a feel and that feel is how I was previously been able to scalp so well, works the same on longer time frames too. I also use the real time Power Index and Multimap to give me a statistical measure of that days trend strength/weakness. There is a real subjective nature to 'down too far' or 'up to far' but you have to trust your gut instinct!

Took AUDJPY at my 68.50 buy level when trendline broke. My second best trade last night.

GBPJPY was my best trade. I took two stabs at buying when it hit my buy level made 12 pips on first one and 34 on second before going to sleep. Woke up at 7:30 to trade US session and caught the breakdown of my 143.00 level and you can see short term weakness on the candle dark red along with extreme weakness in intermediate trend too. My best trade since back from vacation. Short at 142.74 and out at 141.02.

I do a lot of quick scalp trades too but this forum is only for my predicted trades ahead of time. When you see tremendous weakness earlier and then market tries for a second time going down its MORE likely to work.