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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,421
  • Mar 29, 2009 3:22am Mar 29, 2009 3:22am
Peglow was banned because he had multiple user names.. ahh these people.
  • #6,422
  • Mar 29, 2009 4:34am Mar 29, 2009 4:34am
I seriously worry about the amount of people that are so insecure about their own achievements that they feel the need to big themselves up on an anonymous internet forum. At least before the internet took off, I was blissfully unaware of the large number of people like this.
  • #6,423
  • Mar 29, 2009 5:34am Mar 29, 2009 5:34am
What a waste of time every line of discussuon with/about such people. Let them go their way and simply ignore them.
  • #6,424
  • Mar 29, 2009 9:17am Mar 29, 2009 9:17am
Hi, All: How are your tradings? I am glad that a distasteful intruder was banned by FF. And it saved us a lot. Wish we will see FTI soon next week.
  • #6,425
  • Mar 29, 2009 5:15pm Mar 29, 2009 5:15pm
Hi all
this is not my picture but I like now
Attached Image
  • #6,426
  • Edited Mar 30, 2009 12:18am Mar 29, 2009 10:18pm | Edited Mar 30, 2009 12:18am
Hey all dancers....

nice painting GRo....

USD bull here....lets see.. what happens after this gapp......


EDIT: Nice ride heading to bed now...

V
  • #6,427
  • Mar 30, 2009 9:35am Mar 30, 2009 9:35am
12 hours no onre replied...


So no one trading i take it???


V
  • #6,428
  • Mar 30, 2009 9:54am Mar 30, 2009 9:54am
Quoting indianguyinny24
12 hours no onre replied...


So no one trading i take it???


V
Hi indianguyinny24

Yes it looks that all holiday

  • #6,429
  • Mar 30, 2009 10:43am Mar 30, 2009 10:43am
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I understand, I would say that you can use your experience of watching PA and your knowledge of chart formations, blend this with an understanding of the structure of the forex market which will hopefully help you to understand the way it moves, and use all this against the background of what you perceive the current trend to be (and the current fundamental forces), to take positions in the market.

Having said all that, it's impossible to accurately predict where the market is going in the next 30 minutes, so you need to stick to sound MM principles and the MO presented here, in order to manage the risk - pressing the advantage when you are in a good position, making sure you are not overexposing yourself at the same time, and managing negative positions to try and bring them back to break-even, but not trying to do so against the major trend.

Am I anywhere near understanding this?
  • #6,430
  • Mar 30, 2009 11:56am Mar 30, 2009 11:56am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I understand, I would say that you can use your experience of watching PA and
.........
Hi ukmanthailan

so MO is to protect the scout and attack when I was safe in MM,

or I have obtained pillow.Very important to silence EGO and does not give its view on the market=feel the market - dance.Formic work not greed and fear.

I am still learning .............myself


  • #6,431
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:19pm Mar 30, 2009 12:19pm
Yes, mustn't forget the ego....or must forget the ego!!
  • #6,432
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:30pm Mar 30, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Yes, mustn't forget the ego....or must forget the ego!!

...scaut is crucial in market sentiment is the only indicator a sense of volatility-market pulse.Ego has no place there.Ego creates certainty which is a very dangerous thing.

  • #6,433
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:36pm Mar 30, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I understand, I would say that you can use your experience of watching PA and your knowledge of chart formations, blend this with an understanding of the structure of the forex market which will hopefully help you to understand the way it moves, and use all this against the background of what you perceive the current trend to be (and the current fundamental forces), to take positions in the market.

Having said all that, it's...
Sounds good to me. I would just add that for me the main trend is the daily.
I have been shorting the EUR/USD since half way through the Asian session around 1.3250 and I am still going short. Just leaving the scout in, and scalling in and out. Starting to slow down the snowballing attacks as we move to the close of the NY session.
All in all, another good day following FTI approach.

All the best. Ray
  • #6,434
  • Edited 7:00pm Mar 30, 2009 6:41pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Well, I finished going back over all my notes on this thread. I'm still not sure I've got the picture though. From what I understand, I would say that you can use your experience of watching PA and your knowledge of chart formations, blend this with an understanding of the structure of the forex market which will hopefully help you to understand the way it moves, and use all this against the background of what you perceive the current trend to be (and the current fundamental forces), to take positions in the market.

Having said all that, it's...
Yes for me. In regards to where the market is going in the next 30 minutes, you should stick to daily (unless experience tells u so ) and notice when PA shows that it has went overboard when it comes to an impulse/movement in price. It shows where the significant buy and sell orders are at the moment. Also at the same time, there shouldn't be any external event driving the movement, just natural cycles of going up and down.

Also, don't forget the skill of knowing when its liquid/illiquid/no participant.

When it comes to skewing, I'd lay it off first. I think fti's intial beginner MO is better, 20 units of small troops sent in one by one, so the skew is 1-1-1. It helps in controlling greed and fear especially when we're inexperience in the market. It avoids us getting into trouble when we're being stupid as well (I do that alot when I open up my computer in the morning and start trading within the first 20 minutes).
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,435
  • Mar 30, 2009 10:56pm Mar 30, 2009 10:56pm
just back from Bali ,

hopefully all had a great trading sessions ,

good trade to all

To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,436
  • Mar 31, 2009 1:47am Mar 31, 2009 1:47am
Quoting hpr
Yes for me. In regards to where the market is going in the next 30 minutes, you should stick to daily...
I still get confused when people refer to the daily chart. Sometimes it seems they are looking at the last one or two candles rather than the last highs/lows?

For instance, on my daily chart, it looks as if GBP made a higher high on 24/03 and a higher low on 30/03 - so does that mean I should be using that for directional decisions, or do others see it differently?
  • #6,437
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:08am Mar 31, 2009 4:08am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I still get confused when people refer to the daily chart. Sometimes it seems they are looking at the last one or two candles rather than the last highs/lows?

For instance, on my daily chart, it looks as if GBP made a higher high on 24/03 and a higher low on 30/03 - so does that mean I should be using that for directional decisions, or do others see it differently?

Hi!

It`s confusing for me too. I guess its only about the previous couple candles on the daily. Highs and lows just wouldn`t make sense, they are too irrelevant for a 5min frame.

good trading!
  • #6,438
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:30am Mar 31, 2009 4:30am
For me, I am only taking trades using the 5 min chart in the direction of today's daily chart.
At the time of writing the EUR/USD is showing a small long on today's daily (Tuesday 31st) chart, so I am going long in my trades.
Later in the day, if today's daily candle changes to short, then I will take short trades.

This seems to be working OK for me. All the best Ray
  • #6,439
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:21am Mar 31, 2009 5:21am
the thing about short term chart and long term chart is that , they behave similarly (as fti sir said , like above , like below )
but probably as a result of short term illiquidity , lower time frame shows noises more frequently than higher ones ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,440
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:49am Mar 31, 2009 6:49am
Quoting maheswara
the thing about short term chart and long term chart is that , they behave similarly (as fti sir said , like above , like below )
but probably as a result of short term illiquidity , lower time frame shows noises more frequently than higher ones ...
Hi!

I guess today's moves prove you right. The hourly shows a perfect turn and bull activity but the waves on the 5min seem very weird with lots of bear pressure/hesitant bulls. Most of my poor performing days are when I get fooled by these waves.

In the morning I made 1% shorting the Euro but those impulses almost took it back. Lucky I didnt chicken out and saved my profits with a well timed rescue.

How's everyone else doing?

regards
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