sedit qui timuit ne non succederet.

If these results are geniune then Paul you don't have to look at any other system as no one can sniff an average of 2000 pips a month.

I have been emailed about the 33% of previous daily range ,this is not just figure I have made up to fit the facts.

Take a 100 pip trend,its prob moved 30 pips by the time you realise your in a trend ,you get out 30 pips from the bottom due to indicators and or sliding stop etc as the market bottoms out and the retracements get stronger

You keep the middle third ( 33%)

Makes sense to me ... a daily chart to explain if you lucky you get B to C .. A to B being the initial move ..C to D being messy

{

Week 1 = +627 pips
Week 2 = +741 pips

Monday March 23rd

10 signals 7 winning signals for +175 pips

Tuesday March 24th

10 signals 5 winning signals for 17 pips

Wednesday 25th

10 signals 6 winning signals for 23 pips

Thursday 26th March

10 signals 6 winnings signals for minus 11pips

Friday 27th March

33 percent of yesterdays range is 71 pips

11 signals 8 winning signals


13+8,+2-7,12+1,24-1,18+8,-35-35,43-18,57+37,-10-10,+6-4,-2+16 = +123 pips

Note

Daily TP HIT

Week 1 = +627 pips
Week 2 = +741 pips

Monday March 23rd

10 signals 7 winning signals for +175 pips

Tuesday March 24th

10 signals 5 winning signals for 17 pips

Wednesday 25th

10 signals 6 winning signals for 23 pips

Thursday 26th March

10 signals 6 winnings signals for minus 11pips

Friday 27th March

33 percent of yesterdays range is 71 pips

11 signals 8 winning signals for 123 pips

Note

Daily TP HIT

I Have to stress to my fellow traders .... Im not taking all the signals due to the fact I'm human Im not awake for the Asian session and I need my beauty sleep..so signals late at night unless Im here in front of the screen are not taken

Week 1 = +627 pips
Week 2 = +741 pips
Week 3 = +327 pips
Paulus

Same indicators but taking counter trend signal when bands line up correctly

Yellow signals win
Plum signal loss

No pips are calculated but signals look good to me

Paulus

I don't think it's a good idea to do against the trend.

Horses for courses going agaisnt the trend means your going against the momnetum and often the moves will be weaker if you look at the chart I posted you will see

Higher K line
Middle K line
Bottom K line

When you take a counter trend short if the price hits the middle K line which is the average then move your stop to break even when it hits the lower line take profit

visa versa for longs

Its a more conservative way to trade but you are often trading the weaker retracement moves,trading this way the 5 losers in plum colour would be reduced to 3



cheers

paulus

Solution: Find a vollunteer (that would be me) who is awake during the Asian session when you are sleeping, train them on this system, have them post the results. You're UK, I'm US. I'm already helping to develop/test a similar system. I can stand guard for you while your batteries are recharging.

Can't blame a guy for at least trying, right?

And you can toss me the indicators so I can do an official audit of your results.

Paulus, what do you do if the system overfits too much, if it starts to go badly? Do you continue to optimize it based on newest data?
Here I am tolking about overfitting, the TS overfits with the past because of pushing optimization, then it goes badly in the future because future behaviour changes.
After all when you modify your indicator params, then look results, then modify, then look results etc, modify again (optimization), then invent a new indicator, then look results, then operate only on first opposite candle, then look results ....... you're using FUTURE knowledge... do you have any defense mechanism against this? I wonder what you will do when market changes, do you have any stop loss for a TS?

Thanks.

Sorry Marzullo but what is TS

I can answer your question once I know what it is

cheers

Trading System, Trading Strategy... etc. i mean your trading method.

Hi BlackWolf .. Good Vollunteer

Mr Paulus dont forget me as vollunteer too ..
i can stay hole day just to get this nice system .. sorry i mean to test and give the result ..


Thanx for Mr Paulus for every good things he publish in FF .. i have know much much benifit info from his 900 posts in FF ..
even if this nice system not publish to us i can understand that is happen becase of his partner.

thanx again Paulus what you give me in FF more than this system.

ah ok cool

I try not optimize at all if I get a run of losers I try to add a new rule rather than change indicator settings to eliminate the losses in the past.

I think you guys know already that for a long signal to fire, part of the rule is that the price must break below the bottom K line and the TP will be the top K line.

BUT

When going long from the bottom K line the price at times hits the middle K line which is just an average between the top and bottom lines and then goes south again.

If this happened constantly and I saw positive pips on trades go negative I would instigate a rule that says when we go long we move the stop to break even as we touch the middle K line..this will knock out winners as well as losers but may reduce the loss overall.

hence my stop at 33% of yesterdays ATR Rule ..take the following

-100 -45 -70 -110

But in there you saw at some time or another the positive pip count had reach 50 then I would have no hesitation in taking 50 pips and stopping for the rest of the session.

Im all for making rules I dont like at all changing preferences on Indicators

Im also a firm believer in luck ...when you go from paper to live you need luck you need those 1st couple trades to be winners, technically a system un known to you may be 80% succesful but out there in statastics hyperspace there will be a losing run of 20.

Who could stomach that with or without MM

I beliecve many a succesful system has been given up on due to a bad run of unlucky trades when they 1st go live Im guilty of it my slef.

cheers

Paulus

Paulus -

Thank you for your journal entries and insight into trading......you continue your positive contributions and generosity even when you can't share all the details you would like. A good teacher always finds a way to teach.......in this case, good humor, mysterious charts and subtle hints.......a good reading by any account!

Looking foward to this weeks chapter as the book continues to write itself......a book with a title that took a scholarly "Wolf" to translate. However, will the yet unwritten chapter reveal further clues as to whether it really was Colonel Mustard in the Library with a lead pipe............??! Or will the indicators line up in such a manner as to counter the prevailing wisdom and pivot our attention to a Peacock per chance?

Best regards....Gary

Gary watch out for the butler

Listen if you want to guess in what room, with what weapon, and who done it, the floor's all yours

But like the real thing you guess wrong your out the game

Question

What are the 2 most commonly used moving averages used by professional traders and institutions ?





Week 1 = +627 pips
Week 2 = +741 pips
Week 3 = +327 pips

TP for today is 76 thats 33 percentage of Fridays High to low range

Number of signals 2

2 winning signals

+9+9,+5+35 = 58

Any trade that hits 18 technically shuts the system down as the dailt TP would of been hit

Paulus

EMA 200 / EMA 100 / EMA 50 ?
SMA 200 / SMA 100 / SMA 50 ?

That might have been my guess as well Marzullo but this old dog is on the hunt for a Fib ratio number as per below...

Week 1 = +627 pips
Week 2 = +741 pips
Week 3 = +327 pips

TP for today is 76 thats 33 percentage of Fridays High to low range

Number of signals 8

6 winning signals

+9+9,+5+35,+26+4 ( daily TP 76 hit),+18-3,-35-35,+17+16,-35-35,+40+35 = +72 pips

currently long from 1.4184

Paulus